Ukraine offers reciprocal halt to energy strikes as economic cost of war mounts

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Kyiv is ready to mirror any Russian decision to stop attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, opening the door to a potential sector-specific de-escalation after months in which both sides have used energy as a key economic pressure point, EUalive’s partner Suspilne reports.

After two consecutive exceptionally harsh winters for Ukraine’s energy system and a sustained Ukrainian campaign against Russian oil export infrastructure over the past year, both Kyiv and Moscow now appear to have stronger financial reasons to consider at least a limited truce in this sector.

“If Russia is ready to stop strikes on our energy sector, we will be ready to respond in kind,” Zelenskyy said in his 6 April address.

He added that this proposal had already been transmitted to the Russian side through the Americans, suggesting that the idea is now part of the wider diplomatic channel involving Washington.

The Ukrainian president linked the issue directly to the ongoing work on a broader peace framework, saying Ukrainian and U.S. officials are now “working substantively on the documents” related to a possible agreement to end Russia’s war against Ukraine.

According to Zelenskyy, Kyiv is preparing its own additions to the draft text, with a particular focus on security guarantees, which he described as the central condition for a real and lasting peace.

“Security guarantees are the key to the real end of the war, to a long-term peace, and in general to a political and legal situation in which the war can be ended and people can trust the process,” he said.

The statement comes against the backdrop of growing scepticism around diplomacy, which Zelenskyy openly acknowledged.

“There is now a lot of distrust in diplomacy – and not only here – regarding Russia’s war against Ukraine,” he said, adding that the outcome depends on all participants in the diplomatic process and that contacts with the U.S. side are taking place daily at different levels.

The proposed halt to attacks on energy infrastructure reflects the mounting economic logic on both sides.

For Ukraine, the cost of repeated Russian strikes on the power system has been immense. Following the publication of the fifth Rapid Damage and Needs Assessment (RDNA5), Ukrainian officials said in February that the country’s total reconstruction needs now stand at $588 billion, with $90.6 billion required for the restoration and modernisation of the energy sector alone over the next decade.

The figures, prepared jointly by the Ukrainian government, the World Bank, the European Commission and the United Nations, cover damage assessed through the end of December 2025 and do not yet include destruction from January and February 2026.

According to the Ukrainian government, $4.9 billion is needed already in 2026 for rapid energy recovery, while the broader ten-year estimate includes $71 billion for generation capacity, $6.4 billion for heating, $5.2 billion for gas transportation infrastructure, and $4.6 billion for the oil sector, including refining.

For Russia, meanwhile, the economic pain is increasingly tied to Ukraine’s growing ability to strike deep into its oil export chain.

Zelenskyy said long-range Ukrainian strikes are already cutting Russian budget revenues, primarily oil revenues, following reports from Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi and Chief of the General Staff Andriy Hnatov.

By the end of March 2026, at least 40% of Russia’s oil export capacity had been taken offline as a result of Ukrainian drone attacks, tanker seizures and the suspension of the Druzhba pipeline, according to figures cited by Zelenskyy.

EU experts set to inspect Russian-damaged Druzhba oil pipeline in Ukraine

One of the clearest examples came in Primorsk on the Baltic Sea, one of Russia’s largest petroleum export ports, where at least 40% of storage facilities were reportedly lost after Ukrainian drone strikes in March.

These attacks have become a key part of Kyiv’s wider strategy to undermine Russia’s war-financing capacity.

Ukraine’s deep-strike campaign expanded further overnight as drones hit oil infrastructure around Novorossiysk on Russia’s Black Sea coast, targeting facilities linked to the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) and the nearby Sheskharis terminal. According to Russian officials, the attack damaged pipeline equipment at a mooring point and set four oil storage tanks on fire, while Kyiv said it had struck the Sheskharis terminal, a key export hub close to CPC installations. The incident is particularly significant because the CPC route handles around 1% of global oil supply and roughly 80% of Kazakhstan’s crude exports, underlining how Ukraine’s strategy of pressuring Russia’s energy revenues increasingly intersects with wider regional and global market sensitivities.

Zelenskyy also pointed to an additional complication for Ukraine: Russia’s oil revenues have partly benefited from broader instability in the Middle East, which has helped sustain higher prices and created room for additional earnings.

He referred as well to the 30-day U.S. licence issued on 13 March allowing purchases of Russian oil and petroleum products stranded at sea, a move presented by Washington as a step to stabilise global energy markets.

Against this backdrop, the logic of a reciprocal halt to energy strikes becomes increasingly pragmatic.

For Kyiv, reducing pressure on an energy system that has become one of Russia’s primary wartime targets could help limit reconstruction costs that continue to rise sharply. For Moscow, shielding oil terminals, export hubs and transport infrastructure from repeated Ukrainian long-range attacks could help preserve one of the Kremlin’s most important sources of wartime revenue.

Еnergy infrastructure may now be emerging as one of the few areas where a limited ceasefire mechanism is economically rational for both sides, even as broader diplomatic distrust remains high.

The immoral wars

Sources: Suspilne, BGNES

Caption: Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy (R), answers journalists questions during the 56th annual meeting of the World Economic Forum (WEF), in Davos, Switzerland, 22 January 2026. The 2026 summit, running from 19 to 23 January and held under the theme ‘A Spirit of Dialogue,’ brings together global political leaders, corporate executives, and scientists to address international challenges. EPA/GIAN EHRENZELLER