EditXi in the U.S.: Will the summit freeze the trade war or just buy time?
Multi-billion-dollar gas contracts and mutual AI incident notifications could reshape U.S.-China relations - or leave them hanging
Chinese leader Xi Jinping is set to arrive in Washington this week to meet with U.S. President Donald Trump. The talks at the White House, scheduled for Thursday (24 September), aim to preserve the fragile truce in the two powers’ trade relations – an agreement officially set to expire in November. The stakes are high, and the groundwork for these crucial negotiations was laid right up to the last minute during intensive talks held in New York on Sunday (20 September). However, the proceedings are taking place in a tense atmosphere, fueled by online speculation regarding the Chinese leader’s health.
Testing the waters in New York
On Sunday, delegations from both nations held a meeting in New York that lasted nearly eight hours. The U.S. side was led by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, while the Chinese delegation was headed by He Lifeng, Vice Premier of China. Bessent described the talks as highly successful, noting that they focused on two main pillars: trade and the challenges posed by artificial intelligence.
Amid security concerns arising from the rapid development of new technologies, Washington proposed to Beijing the creation of a mechanism for mutual notification regarding AI-related incidents.
“It is about notifications regarding whether incidents are occurring, or whether something is escalating to the level of a national security threat involving AI,” Bessent explained. The U.S. side also highlighted the need to develop a shared vision regarding common goals and threats – a stance that aligns with recent calls from tech industry leaders to engage in dialogue with China about potentially slowing down work on the most advanced systems.
Economic issues were also addressed during the meeting. U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer announced the launch of the U.S.-China Trade Council, a body established in Beijing last May. The group is tasked with compiling a list of products that could be subject to lower tariffs.
“We expect these lists to include consumer goods and low-tech products imported from China, and, from the United States, energy products, agricultural goods, and potentially medical devices and similar items,” Greer stated.
It was noted, however, that Sunday’s discussions did not cover export controls on the most sensitive technologies and minerals.
The tortuous path of the trade war
Current negotiations represent an attempt to stabilize a relationship that has been marked by high volatility since the beginning of 2025. Donald Trump’s return to power initially saw the imposition of 10% tariffs on Chinese goods, justified by concerns regarding fentanyl imports. China responded by restricting exports of U.S. coal, oil, and key metals. Tensions escalated in the spring of the previous year, leading to a sharp rise in tariff rates on both sides, climbing from an initial 34% to mutual tariffs of around 125%. Concurrently, Beijing decided to restrict exports of rare-earth elements.
Months of diplomatic efforts, including breakthrough talks in Geneva that enabled a temporary, drastic reduction in U.S. tariffs from a record 145% to 30%, ultimately led to a truce concluded in South Korea last autumn. China agreed to tighten regulations on fentanyl precursors and resume purchases of agricultural products in exchange for further tariff concessions. However, the situation shifted again in early 2026. The U.S. Supreme Court struck down some of the emergency tariffs imposed by the administration; the White House responded by introducing a new, temporary 10% global tariff, invoking different legal provisions. Although Trump’s visit to Beijing in May yielded announcements regarding new investments and purchases of American aircraft, analysts and financial markets are still awaiting a clear signal that both sides are ready for a long-term agreement.
“Xi isn’t really expecting anything concrete. He wants to extend the ‘gentleman’s agreement’ with Trump to give China time to strengthen its position,” noted Jon Czin, a foreign policy expert at the Brookings Institution who previously served as Director for China at the U.S. National Security Council.
Natural gas as a diplomatic bargaining chip
One factor that could facilitate talks at the White House is a return to trade in American liquefied natural gas (LNG). Prior to the escalation of tensions, the United States was a leading supplier of this commodity to China; however, imports came to a near-total halt following the imposition of tariffs. It is anticipated that Xi Jinping might propose resuming LNG purchases worth approximately $6 billion annually.
For Beijing, this represents a relatively simple concession that also diversifies energy sources amidst instability in the Middle East. For Washington, it offers an opportunity for lucrative, long-term contracts that support the growth of the domestic energy sector.
“LNG is an obvious area of mutual benefit,” Jane Nakano, a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, told Bloomberg. “The value of restoring LNG ties with China would extend beyond addressing the trade imbalance. Resuming LNG trade would likely bolster the sustained growth of the U.S. LNG sector.”
Early signs of a thaw are already visible in the market, with some Chinese companies beginning to sign long-term agreements for U.S. gas supplies scheduled for the end of the decade.
Disinformation in the shadow of the summit
Alongside official diplomatic preparations, unconfirmed speculation regarding the Chinese leader’s health surfaced in the public sphere. These rumors, initiated by Wanjun Xie – a Chinese opposition figure living in exile, suggested that Xi Jinping had suffered a stroke during the recent BRICS summit in India.
According to these reports, the Chinese leader hastily departed New Delhi and, upon landing in Beijing, was immediately airlifted to a military hospital, bypassing the customary welcome by state officials. Xie posted videos and photos on social media in which Xi appeared to be grimacing in pain.
However, it was quickly determined that the materials had been manipulated. Analysis revealed that the alleged health incident during Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s speech was actually a malfunction of the simultaneous interpretation equipment, and the video had been altered using artificial intelligence tools. Official footage of the departure also shows Xi Jinping boarding the plane unaided and without any visible difficulty.
Chinese authorities and state media firmly denied the reports, stating that the material circulating online was entirely fabricated. Nevertheless, Wanjun Xie has persisted in his efforts. The opposition figure continues to publish posts pushing the narrative that the official footage released by Beijing and Russian media was actually AI-generated manipulation intended to conceal the truth about the leader’s actual health. “He is the leader of the world’s second-largest economy and the largest military in Asia. People will be watching his health very closely,” noted Victor Shih, a professor at the University of California, San Diego, and an expert on Chinese politics.
Although Chinese censors attempt to block such content, experts point out that the emergence of such fabricated information, just before a crucial meeting in Washington, could be a deliberate attempt to discredit the leader on the international stage.
Thursday’s talks at the White House will reveal whether, amidst the backdrop of tech-driven disinformation, a complex history of tariffs, and global rivalry, the United States and China can manage to establish a framework for cooperation for the months ahead.
The original article in Polish, published by partner media FocusEurope.pl, can be found here.
Trump-Xi summit: first day in Beijing features pomp, pragmatism, and a sharp Taiwan warning
Caption: A screen shows Chinese President Xi Jinping and US President Donald Trump during their meeting in Beijing, China, 14 May 2026. US President Trump is in Beijing for a high-stakes state visit running through 15 May, marking his first return to the mainland since 2017. EPA/WU HAO
Updated: September 21, 2026 - 10:42
