Does a railways station count as NATO investment? Slovenia’s negative experience

NATO has declined to recognise dozens of Slovenian infrastructure projects totaling approximately €360 million as eligible defence expenditures, creating a notable shortfall in the country’s reported contributions to the alliance.

The decision, which excludes major civilian projects with potential dual-use applications, underscores ongoing tensions between national interpretations of defence spending and NATO’s standardized methodology. Among the rejected initiatives is the extensive renovation of Ljubljana’s central railway station, a flagship transport project that Slovenia had sought to classify as supporting military mobility.

The controversy emerged prominently during the tenure of Prime Minister Robert Golob’s government, which attempted to incorporate these investments into its defence budget reporting. According to Slovenia’s Ministry of Defence, the NATO Secretariat systematically excluded the costs, highlighting differences in how the alliance evaluates what qualifies as core defence spending. This rejection has significant implications, as it widens the gap between Slovenia’s self-reported figures and NATO’s verified assessments, positioning the country as the only alliance member falling short of the 2% of GDP benchmark in recent estimates.

Disputed projects and their claimed strategic role

The Ljubljana railway station overhaul stands out as one of the most prominent examples. The project encompasses upgrades to tracks, platforms, signaling systems, telecommunications infrastructure, and the construction of a new 110-meter overpass. Slovenia justified its inclusion in defence spending by emphasizing the station’s importance for rapid transport and military logistics, particularly in scenarios requiring the swift movement of troops and equipment across Europe. Despite these arguments, NATO officials determined that the project did not meet the criteria for core defence expenditures, even though a substantial portion, nearly €175 million, is funded through European cohesion funds.

Similar reasoning applied to other major initiatives that were also rejected. These include the expansion of capacity at the Port of Koper, the reconstruction and widening of the Primorje and Styrian highways – both part of the designated NATO corridor and European military mobility network, and the construction of a second railway track between Divača and Koper. Additionally, enhancements to Slovenian Railways’ transport capacities were excluded. The previous government had classified these as defence-related due to their potential utility in supporting allied forces during crises, such as facilitating the deployment of heavy military equipment.

NATO’s assessment, however, adheres to a jointly agreed methodology that prioritizes direct expenditures on armed forces, equipment, personnel, and operations. While recognizing the value of dual-use infrastructure for broader resilience, the alliance does not automatically accept entire civilian projects under the defence umbrella simply because they appear on military mobility lists. This strict approach has led to the exclusion of the full €360 million package, a sum that represents a substantial portion of Slovenia’s attempted defence uplift.

The Ministry of Defence has noted that details remain partially classified, limiting full public disclosure of individual project values. Former Defence Minister Borut Sajovic had been reluctant to specify the projects, but the current leadership under Minister Valentin Hajdinjak provided a summarized document outlining key initiatives. This transparency comes amid heightened political debate, with opposition voices and incoming government figures criticising the previous administration’s approach.

Political ramifications and pressure from NATO leadership

The spending dispute gained further intensity through direct intervention by NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte. In a letter dated 5 May, addressed to Slovenian authorities and later publicized, Rutte expressed concern over Slovenia’s reporting practices. He highlighted that the country’s claimed 51% real-term increase in core defence spending for 2025, which would have pushed it to 2.01% of GDP, relied heavily on ineligible projects. After adjustments, the figure dropped to approximately 1.6% of GDP, revealing a shortfall of around €300 million. Rutte urged Slovenia to address these gaps urgently to uphold collective security commitments, especially as the alliance faces evolving geopolitical challenges.

This critique aligns with broader NATO expectations. At the 2014 Wales Summit, members pledged to reach 2% of GDP on defence, a target reaffirmed and expanded at subsequent meetings. The Hague Summit in June 2025 set even more ambitious goals, aiming for 5% of GDP by 2035, with 3.5% allocated to core defence and 1.5% to related investments. Slovenia’s performance, projected at 1.61% for 2026 according to NATO estimates, stands in contrast to most allies. While Spain and Belgium hover at exactly 2%, Slovenia remains the lone outlier below the threshold.

Prime Minister Janez Janša, attending the NATO summit in Ankara, has repeatedly warned that falling short not only damages Slovenia’s credibility within the alliance but also compromises national security. The Prime Minister’s office has acknowledged the letter from Rutte, defending the Golob government’s record by pointing to the highest-ever defence allocations in absolute terms. Officials argue for a broader interpretation of security that encompasses critical infrastructure, cybersecurity, energy resilience, and military mobility. The Defence Ministry similarly maintains that differing yet legitimate perspectives exist on investment categorization.

President Nataša Pirc Musar, as supreme commander of the Slovenian Armed Forces, has emphasized the need to honor commitments, noting the issue spans multiple governments. A NATO expert delegation visited Slovenia in February to assess progress, and reports suggest dissatisfaction with the pace of reforms. Domestically, the Democratic Party (SDS) has pushed for parliamentary scrutiny, including emergency sessions to examine the classified communications and overall readiness.

Despite the exclusions, Slovenia has made progress. Under Golob, defence spending rose from around 1.3% of GDP (approximately €740 million) to 1.57% (over €1 billion), with core expenditures reaching €1.107 billion in 2025 per ministry data. However, NATO’s independent verification paints a more modest picture, estimating €1.438 billion in total defence outlays but adjusting downward after review.

The episode illustrates the challenges smaller allies face in balancing fiscal realities, infrastructure development, and alliance obligations. As Slovenia transitions to a new government, the pressure is mounting to align reporting more closely with NATO standards while sustaining investment growth. Failure to close the gap could affect not only Slovenia’s standing but also the collective strength of NATO at a time when unity and burden-sharing are paramount.

Sources: Siol.net, 24ur.com, The Slovenian Times

Caption: During the government of Robert Golob, Slovenia justified investments in the Ljubljana railway station by its importance for transport and military mobility. (Bojan Puhek, Siol.net)