Zelenskyy’s attendance at NATO summit uncertain amid Trump’s supremacy

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s participation in the 24-25 June NATO summit in The Hague remains uncertain. Ukrainian officials are weighing whether Zelensky’s presence would be impactful without a confirmed bilateral meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump, who is seen as pivotal in pressuring Russian President Vladimir Putin for a ceasefire in the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict.

Zelenskyy’s potential attendance at the NATO summit underscores Ukraine’s critical need for international support amid ongoing Russian aggression. However, the summit’s focus on defense spending and Trump’s supremacy may limit Ukraine’s visibility.

The summit’s organisers are navigating a delicate balance between supporting Ukraine and maintaining alliance unity, particularly given Trump’s skepticism about NATO’s role and his administration’s mixed record on Ukraine diplomacy. Notably, Trump has advocated removing Ukraine’s NATO membership from discussion, a stance reflected in the summit’s draft text, which will describe Russia as a “direct threat” but omit references to Ukraine’s “irreversible” path to membership.

Zelenskyy’s objectives and diplomatic challenges

The Ukrainian president aims to leverage the summit to advocate for a ceasefire and secure NATO guarantees for Ukraine’s security in the event of a peace agreement with Russia – a demand Moscow has already deemed “unacceptable.” A source from the Ukrainian presidency, speaking to AFP, confirmed Zelenskyy’s intent to attend but noted that the decision would be finalized on the eve of the summit.

Diplomatic sources indicate that Zelenskyy has been invited to an official dinner hosted by the Dutch king, which Trump is also expected to attend, and he may participate in a defense industry forum. However, unlike the previous NATO summit in Washington, there will be no formal working session between Zelenskyy and the 32 NATO leaders.

Dutch Defense Minister Ruben Brekelmans, speaking on WNL op Zondag, emphasized NATO’s efforts to find “a good place” for Zelenskyy, but the U.S. has reportedly objected to his inclusion in the main plenary session to avoid potential tensions with Trump.

Trump’s influence and NATO’s focus

The summit’s agenda is heavily shaped by Trump’s priorities, particularly his push for NATO members to increase defense spending to a proposed 5% of GDP, with 3.5% allocated to core military budgets and 1.5% to defense-related expenditures. To accommodate Trump’s reported preference for brevity, the summit has been streamlined into a single 2.5-hour session, with a concise five-paragraph communiqué, a stark contrast to the 44-paragraph, 5,400-word declaration from the 2024 Washington summit.

Over two months ago, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio attended a ministerial meeting in Brussels with a clear message: the 5% demand was not a joke. As participants later revealed off the record, Rubio warned the partners: either they accept the US demand, or Trump would reduce the U.S. military presence in Europe.

In 2024, European NATO members together spent nearly $500 billion on defence, or 2% of their combined GDP. An increase to 3% would mean an additional $250 billion annually. Up to half of that could go directly towards weapons and ammunition.

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, formerly a long-serving Dutch prime minister, is focused on presenting the spending targets as a personal triumph for Trump, who has long criticised European allies for inadequate defense contributions. However, diplomats are wary of Trump’s unpredictability, citing his early departure from the recent G7 summit in Canada and subsequent social media criticisms. One diplomat expressed concern about potential “late-night or early-morning bombshells” on Truth Social if Trump becomes frustrated at the summit.

Ukraine’s strategic concerns

Ukraine’s leadership is acutely aware of the risks posed by Trump’s shifting focus, with one official telling The Guardian that Ukraine faces a “permanent hazard” due to Trump’s “short attention span”. This concern was amplified after Trump left the G7 summit early, citing the Iran-Israel conflict, missing a planned bilateral meeting with Zelenskyy. During the G7, a Russian attack on Kyiv killed 24 civilians and injured 134, yet Trump has not publicly addressed the incident.

Despite these challenges, Zelenskyy highlighted positive outcomes from the G7, including $1.5 billion in Canadian military aid (drones, armored vehicles, and ammunition), $1.6 billion in reconstruction loans, and new sanctions targeting Russia’s energy revenues and military-industrial complex. U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer also announced sanctions on Russia’s “shadow fleet” of oil tankers. Zelenskyy had urged G7 leaders to press Trump to use his influence to help end the war, warning that “diplomacy is now in a state of crisis.”

NATO is leaning toward a scheme that will simplify the funding of weapons supplies to Ukraine, especially on supporting equipment produced by Ukraine’s own defence industry.

Other sources: Guardian, Reuters, edited by a.k.

Caption: A handout photo made available by the Ukrainian Presidential Press Service shows Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy visiting the site of a Russian attack on a residential building in the Solomianskyi district of Kyiv, Ukraine, 19 June 2025, amid the Russian invasion. Zelenskyy laid flowers and honored the memory of the 23 victims recovered from the destroyed building, which was struck by a Russian attack on 17 June, the Ukrainian presidential palace reported. EPA/UKRAINIAN PRESIDENTIAL PRESS SERVICE