Zelenskyy says frontline situation best for Ukraine in 10 months

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy declared that the situation on the frontline is the best it has been for Ukraine in the last 10 months, citing Ukrainian and British intelligence assessments. In comments released on 3 April, Zelenskyy said Ukrainian forces had successfully thwarted a major Russian offensive planned for March, preventing any large-scale breakthrough.

“The offensive they were planning for March was thwarted by the actions of our armed forces. That is why the Russians will now simply step up their assault operations,” Zelenskyy stated. “At this point, we do not see a large-scale threat.” He noted that, accounting for both occupied and liberated territory, Ukraine was “slightly in the positive,” with roughly 20 square kilometres gained overall. The frontline, stretching more than 1,200 km, remains complex but stable, with Russian advances limited to about 500 square kilometres since January – a notably slower pace than in 2025.

NEW: Ukraine continues to generate leverage against Russia by accomplishing tactical, operational, and strategic battlespace effects.
Other Key Takeaways:
Swedish authorities boarded a Russian shadow fleet tanker on April 3 that was suspected of causing an oil spill in the… pic.twitter.com/tkRwoogb5x
— Institute for the Study of War (@TheStudyofWar) April 3, 2026

Russian troops continue to mass near key hubs such as Pokrovsk in Donetsk region and Hulaipole in Zaporizhzhia, with the Ukrainian General Staff reporting 230 combat clashes in the previous 24 hours, mostly in those areas. Russia controls just under 20% of Ukrainian territory, much of it seized early in the full-scale invasion. Diplomatic efforts, including U.S.-brokered talks, have so far produced no breakthroughs, with Moscow demanding Ukrainian withdrawals from parts of Donetsk that Kyiv rejects.

While the ground war grinds on with limited movement, Ukraine has achieved significant successes in a parallel campaign deep inside Russia, systematically targeting Moscow’s critical oil export infrastructure. In March 2026 alone, Ukrainian long-range drones struck 15 Russian strategic facilities – including five industrial plants and 10 oil refining and export sites – in what Ukrainian officials describe as one of the largest such operations of the war.

The strikes have focused on Russia’s Baltic Sea export terminals and inland refineries, some more than 1,400 km from the Ukrainian border. Key targets included the Ust-Luga and Primorsk oil ports in Leningrad Oblast, which together handle nearly 40% of Russia’s seaborne oil exports. Repeated drone attacks damaged tank farms, loading piers, and storage facilities, forcing suspensions and reducing overall Russian oil export capacity by up to 40% at peak (now stabilized around 20%, or roughly 1 million barrels per day).

Refineries have also been hit hard. In early April, Ukrainian drones struck the Novo-Ufimsk (Bashneft-Novoil) refinery in Ufa, Bashkortostan, shutting down one of its largest crude distillation units (28% of capacity) after a fire. Other recent targets include facilities in Yaroslavl, Saratov, and Kirishi. Industry sources told Reuters that the cumulative damage – to ports, pipelines, and refineries – has choked Russia’s oil transport system, with storage tanks filling rapidly and forcing imminent production cuts at some fields.

The campaign directly undermines Russia’s war economy. Oil and refined product exports are Moscow’s primary source of foreign revenue, funding much of its military effort. Ukrainian officials, including Zelenskyy, have framed the strikes as a legitimate response to Russia’s repeated attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure and civilian power grids during the winter. Some Western partners have privately urged Kyiv to ease off amid rising global energy prices, but Ukraine has shown no sign of relenting.

Analysts note that while Russian forces continue incremental gains on the eastern front, Ukraine’s ability to project power deep into Russian territory with drones has opened a new and economically punishing dimension to the conflict. With warmer weather accelerating fighting on the ground and no diplomatic resolution in sight, these asymmetric strikes on oil exports are likely to remain a central pillar of Kyiv’s strategy.

With Reuters and additional reporting by EUalive

Caption: Assessed control in the Donetsk ‘fortress belt’ by 4 April 2026, Institute for the Study of war