EditXi and Putin’s Victory Day pact: a symbol of China’s dominance in an anti-Western alliance
Once an equal partner, Russia is now a vassal to China
As tanks rumble through Red Square for Russia’s Victory Day on 9 May, Chinese President Xi Jinping will stand alongside Vladimir Putin, a vivid symbol of their anti-Western alliance. Yet, behind the pageantry, Beijing increasingly holds the reins in a partnership reshaped by Russia’s reliance on China.
The Kremlin confirmed Xi’s visit to Moscow from 7 to 10 May, for the 80th anniversary of the Soviet victory in World War II. Victory Day, a cornerstone of Russian national pride, is often leveraged by Putin to project strength and rally support.
Xi and Putin will discuss their strategic partnership and sign several agreements, the Kremlin said on Telegram, spotlighting a bond forged amid Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
Before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Xi and Putin declared a “no limits” partnership in February 2022, a bold stance against Western dominance. Since then, Western sanctions have pushed Moscow closer to Beijing, transforming their alliance into a lifeline for Russia’s isolated economy. This has pushed Russia’s growing reliance on Beijing, which tilts the relationship towards a dynamic where China holds the reins.
Bilateral trade soared to $190 billion in 2022, driven by China’s imports of discounted Russian oil and gas. In 2023, Russian oil exports to China surged by 25%, saving Beijing an estimated $4.34 billion. Chinese exports, including dual-use technologies like drone parts, have helped Russia evade sanctions, though Beijing denies supplying lethal weapons.
Diplomatically, China has backed Russia by refusing to condemn the invasion and echoing Moscow’s claims that NATO provoked the conflict. During Xi’s 2023 Moscow visit, he proposed a vague 12-point plan for a “political resolution” to the Ukraine war, which the European Commission criticised as pro-Russia posturing that blurred the roles of aggressor and victim.
China’s support is tempered by caution to avoid secondary sanctions or straining ties with Europe, a key trade partner. Beijing’s neutrality was evident in 2023 when Xi avoided endorsing Russia’s war outright. However, a POLITICO investigation found that Chinese firms exported 1,000 assault rifles and other equipment to Russian entities between June and December 2022, raising Western concerns about dual-use goods. U.S. officials note no evidence of direct lethal aid.
Ukraine views Xi’s visit as tacit support for Russia’s aggression. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy dismissed Putin’s proposed temporary ceasefire from 8 to 10 May “theatrics.” Western allies, wary of China’s role, fear the visit signals deeper backing for Moscow’s war economy.
Moreover, China’s support for Russia aligns with its goal of countering U.S. influence. Both nations push for a “multipolar world,” a theme echoed during Xi’s 2023 visit. Yet, Beijing treads carefully to avoid secondary sanctions or straining ties with Europe, a vital trade partner.
Sanctions have made Russia heavily dependent on China for trade, technology, and diplomacy. Putin’s 2024 Beijing visit underscored this imbalance, with Russia securing discounted energy deals.
Once an equal partner, Russia now bows to Beijing’s economic and strategic might, resembling a servant tethered to China’s global ambitions.
Analyst Timothy Ash called Russia a “junior partner” of China, and others have said that after the Ukraine invasion, Russia is increasingly becoming a vassal to China – possibly the worst consequence, among many others, of Putin’s military adventure.
Xi’s 2025 Moscow visit is expected to cement the resilient yet asymmetrical Russia-China partnership, driven by shared anti-Western goals but shaped by Beijing’s dominance. The chances of Xi mediating an end to the Ukraine war during his May Moscow visit are slim, to say the least.
Sources: Reuters, AP, Al Jazeera, Euronews, CNN, POLITICO, France24, edited by p.p.p.
Caption: A passerby looks at cardboard cutouts of Russian President Vladimir Putin (C-L) and Chinese President Xi Jinping (C-R) displayed outside a souvenir shop in downtown Moscow, Russia, 16 May 2024. The Russian president is on an official visit to China on 16 and 17 May. [EPA-EFE/MAXIM SHIPENKOV]
Updated: May 5, 2025 - 14:23
