EditWill Lithuania’s support for Ukraine erode under the new cabinet?
Nominee Inga Ruginenė promises support for Ukraine, but the ruling party’s reliance on populist and pro-Russian allies raises concerns
On 21 August, Lithuania’s parliament, the Seimas, opened formal debate on the nomination of Inga Ruginenė as the country’s next prime minister. A vote is scheduled for 26 August. Yet her appointment cannot be viewed in isolation. The real issue lies in the coalition arithmetic and the partners the ruling Social Democratic Party of Lithuania (LSDP) has chosen to keep at its side.
Contrary to expectations, the Social Democrats have decided not to sever ties with their controversial ally, the Dawn of Nemunas party, a populist force hostile to continued support for Ukraine. At the same time, negotiations are under way with the Lithuanian Farmers and Greens Union, whose parliamentary faction now includes members of the openly pro-Russian Electoral Action of Poles in Lithuania – Christian Families Alliance. The prospect of this grouping entering government has triggered fears that Vilnius’ once-unwavering stance on Ukraine may erode.
The current turbulence began in late July, when Prime Minister Gintautas Paluckas stepped down after only seven and a half months in office. His resignation followed a cascade of corruption allegations involving him and members of his family. The immediate trigger was a political ultimatum from the Democratic Union “In the Name of Lithuania,” one of the coalition partners.
Saulius Skvernelis, leader of the Democrats and Speaker of the Seimas, declared that his party would leave the coalition unless Paluckas resigned. His pressure succeeded, but the resignation merely accelerated the unfolding coalition crisis.
Within a week, the Social Democrats nominated Ruginenė, then serving as Minister of Social Protection and Labour. The rapid choice was meant to project stability, yet it quickly became another source of debate.
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A candidate under scrutiny
Ruginenė herself has not been accused of wrongdoing, but questions emerged regarding her family connections. Media outlets reported that she had twice visited Russia in 2015 and 2018 to meet relatives. More significant were findings from the State Security Department, which highlighted business contacts maintained by her husband with companies known for their active support of Russia.
President Gitanas Nausėda acknowledged the concerns but insisted that intelligence services found no direct threat to national security. “These are business connections, possible ties with individuals, the views of those individuals,” he explained. The opposition has nonetheless demanded that parliamentarians be granted access to the classified assessment before voting on Ruginenė’s appointment.
Despite the scrutiny, Nausėda has made clear he sees no obstacle to her confirmation. Still, the nomination has landed in a political context where the coalition’s composition remains unsettled, creating uncertainty over the future course of the government.
The controversy stems largely from the Social Democrats’ decision last year to invite Dawn of Nemunas into government. The party’s leader, Remigijus Žemaitaitis, is known for inflammatory rhetoric, having faced investigation for anti-Semitic remarks and long expressed scepticism over Lithuanian support for Kyiv. His interventions have repeatedly triggered scandals. In January, he once again urged that aid to Ukraine be reduced, dismissing suggestions to witness Russia’s aggression first-hand with a curt statement that such visits could only be about “bribes, corruption, or the sale of the state.”
The inclusion of Dawn of Nemunas was widely perceived as the personal initiative of Paluckas. Many expected that his departure would enable the Social Democrats to break free from the problematic partnership. But those hopes were dashed in mid-August, when party leaders announced they would retain Dawn of Nemunas in the coalition, even at the cost of losing their Democratic Union partners.
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Skvernelis responded with another ultimatum, demanding Dawn of Nemunas’s exclusion. Unlike the first, this threat was unsuccessful. The Social Democrats opted instead to prepare for life without the Democrats, opening the way for new coalition talks.
President Nausėda’s calculus
For President Nausėda, the logic is pragmatic: excluding Dawn of Nemunas risks paralysing decision-making and could force snap elections, an outcome he views as destabilising. “Do we want a government capable of making decisions, or do we want early elections to the Seimas?” he asked rhetorically. According to him, the Social Democrats now have little room for manoeuvre, unlike a year earlier when they could pick among multiple partners.
This framing has made the prospect of Dawn of Nemunas remaining in government appear inevitable. The real question now is who else will be brought in to stabilise the numbers.
Mathematically, the Social Democrats and Dawn of Nemunas together command 72 seats, just above the 71 needed for a majority. Yet such a slim margin is seen as unsustainable. To bolster stability, the Social Democrats have opened talks with the Lithuanian Farmers and Greens Union.
The Farmers, one of the country’s oldest political forces, are led by oligarch Ramūnas Karbauskis and carry a tarnished reputation. Their opening conditions included costly social and economic commitments that, according to the Finance Ministry, would dangerously widen the budget deficit and invite friction with the European Commission. Negotiations paused, but both sides voiced hope for compromise.
In foreign policy, the Farmers’ main condition is the restoration of diplomatic relations with China. In this, they are aligned with the Social Democrats, who have been quietly preparing a thaw with Beijing.
But another condition complicates matters. The Farmers now sit in a joint parliamentary faction with the Electoral Action of Poles in Lithuania – Christian Families Alliance. Their leader, MEP Waldemar Tomaszewski, has appeared with the pro-Russian “Colorado ribbon,” defended Moscow’s annexation of Crimea, and consistently called for sanctions on Russia and Belarus to be lifted. A fellow member, Zbigniew Jedinski, went so far in 2014 as to demand NATO bomb Kyiv to force Ukrainian concessions.
The pro-Russian problem
The joint faction holds 11 seats, but its leader Aurelius Veriga insists they cannot be divided. “Either all or none,” he declared, stressing the faction’s unity. This position makes the entry of Tomaszewski’s group into government a condition for coalition stability.
This scenario alarms many in Vilnius and beyond. The Polish embassy in Lithuania has even distanced itself from Tomaszewski’s party, stressing it does not represent the Polish minority’s interests. Yet if included in the ruling coalition, its members would have an institutional platform to press their views on foreign policy.
Tomaszewski has recently promised that his group would focus solely on social issues. Few in Lithuania believe such assurances.
Opposition parties and civil society organisations have reacted sharply. A “Day of Shame” protest has been announced for 26 August, coinciding with the parliamentary vote on Ruginenė. Organisers accuse the Social Democrats of betraying their commitments by empowering Nieman Dawn and aligning with Tomaszewski’s pro-Russian faction.
“The day of shame will come when the Social Democrats, once again breaking their word, hand over the country to the Dawn of Nemunas party and to Tomaszewski’s obedient followers, who oppose sanctions on Russia and Belarus,” the organisers declared.
Ruginenė’s pledge to Ukraine
In her first remarks as nominee, Ruginenė sought to reassure critics. “I support Ukraine in its struggle until victory. It cannot be otherwise,” she said. Yet the coalition arithmetic tells a different story.
Žemaitaitis of Dawn of Nemunas has already vowed to block any deployment of Lithuanian troops to Ukraine. If reinforced by Tomaszewski’s faction, such resistance could hamstring government decisions on security and foreign policy.
The Social Democrats and President Nausėda are determined to avoid early elections, seeing them as destabilising. But the price of stability may be a coalition that undermines Lithuania’s long-standing support for Kyiv.
As Vilnius prepares for the 26 August vote, the country finds itself at a crossroads: either confirm Ruginenė at the head of a fragile coalition dependent on populists and pro-Russian voices, or face renewed political turbulence with unpredictable consequences.
The original article by Yuriy Panchenko was published in EUalive’s partner European Pravda.
Caption: Doorstep Inga RUGINIENĖ, Minister of Social Security and Labour of Lithuania, screenshot from Informal meeting of Employment miniters in Aalborg, Denkark, 7 July 2025 [Europe by Satellite]
Updated: August 23, 2025 - 05:10
