EditWhy efforts on Cyprus now?
Both parts of the island risk becoming pawns in the strategic chess game between Tel Aviv and Ankara
A new political dynamic that seems to have emerged out of nowhere, Günter Seufert writes.
Günter Seufert is the former Founding Director of the Centre for Applied Turkish Studies at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs. He wrote this op-ed in personal capacity.
On Cyprus, the island in the eastern Mediterranean, the Greek-speaking majority and the Turkish-speaking minority do rarely agree. Yet these days, both the inhabitants of the Greek-dominated Republic of Cyprus (RoC) and the population of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC), recognized only by Ankara, are looking to the future with a degree of concern and unease. Ironically, the reason is the prospect that the status quo on the island might change – the very status quo that, if politicians on both sides are to be believed, they have sought to overcome for more than five decades.
Since Turkey occupied one-third of the island in 1974 in response to a coup by Greek officers and later established the TRNC, Greek Cypriots have pushed for reunification and the withdrawal of Turkish troops. They fear a permanent partition of the island and that Turkey may eventually annex Northern Cyprus. Turkish Cypriots also favour a change to the status quo. In a recent opinion poll, three-quarters of respondents supported a federation between the Greek and Turkish administrations. Those in the Turkish north who support reunification fear Ankara’s growing influence and its authoritarian and Islamist-conservative policies.
However, the devil is in the details. Greek Cypriots would prefer a state under their control in which Turkish Cypriots would have only minority rights. Turkish Cypriots, by contrast, want political equality as a group and a say in shaping the future federal state. Both sides want change, but not at any cost. Now, both fear they could be pushed against their will into a settlement – in other words, into a shared state that offers them less security, self-determination, and prosperity than the current status quo.
The cause of this concern is a political dynamic that seems to have emerged out of nowhere. Suddenly, there has been renewed international momentum on the Cyprus issue, which had been dormant since the last failed round of negotiations in 2017. On the island itself, Greek and Turkish Cypriots have since been unable to agree on anything – neither on whether, nor when, nor how to resume negotiations, nor even on confidence-building measures.
Nevertheless, former Colombian foreign minister M. Ángela Holguín, appointed by UN Secretary-General António Guterres as his personal envoy for Cyprus, has toured the so-called “mother countries” Greece and Turkey, as well as former colonial power Britain, in an effort to win support for new negotiations. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen appointed her vice president Raffaele Fitto as special envoy for the Cyprus issue. Turkey, which had previously sharply rejected any EU involvement in the Cyprus question, accepted this without much objection. And on 9 July, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan received von der Leyen and European Council President António Costa in Ankara, where they discussed Cyprus.
From 27 to 29 July, UN Secretary-General António Guterres will visit the island. He is expected to meet with the President of the Republic of Cyprus, Nikos Christodoulides, and his counterpart, TRNC leader Tufan Erhürman. The goal is to prepare an international conference aimed at redefining a federal model.
Meanwhile, people on Cyprus are wondering what lies behind this sudden activism. The answer is not particularly difficult. It is not primarily about the Cypriots, and the reunification of the island is by no means an end in itself, even if official statements claim otherwise. It is about strategy and security.
At stake, first of all, is cooperation between the European Union and NATO. 23 of NATO’s 32 member states are also members of the EU. Yet official security cooperation between the two blocs remains limited. The reason is the unresolved Cyprus issue. Turkey does not recognize the Republic of Cyprus. As a NATO member, Ankara blocks cooperation between the alliance and the Greek Cypriots, as well as the sharing of sensitive NATO information with the EU. This problem has existed since 2004, when the Republic of Cyprus joined the EU. However, the war in Ukraine and efforts to strengthen the European pillar of NATO have increased the pressure to resolve it. The issue is no longer about NATO-EU cooperation in remote areas like Afghanistan, but about troop mobility in Europe, cybersecurity, hybrid warfare, and coordination of defence production.
But Ankara is not the only spoiler. As an EU member, the Republic of Cyprus blocks the participation of non-EU member Turkey in the European defense fund SAFE, as well as in the joint procurement program PESCO. This is particularly problematic for Germany and eastern EU countries such as Poland and the Baltic states, which feel more threatened by Russia than Western European EU members. The prospect that the Republic of Cyprus (and Greece) might drop its opposition to Turkey’s participation in SAFE is intended to encourage Ankara to make concessions on Cyprus and agree to a reunification process.
Another reason why major powers are once again turning their attention to the Cyprus conflict – frozen for more than five decades – is often mentioned only behind closed doors. In order to hedge militarily against the dominant power of Turkey, the Republic of Cyprus has in recent years become a close ally of Israel. Today, after Syria, Tel Aviv and Ankara also face each other on Cyprus. Both parts of the island risk becoming pawns in the strategic chess game between Tel Aviv and Ankara, both of which are pursuing increasingly expansive policies. This, too, is not in the interest of the EU or Germany, which have largely ignored this aspect of the conflict until now.
Caption: UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres addresses the opening ceremony of the Global Dialogue on AI Governance at Palexpo in Geneva, Switzerland, 6 July 2026. EPA/SALVATORE DI NOLFI
Updated: July 28, 2026 - 04:35
