United Arab Emirates quits OPEC and OPEC+ in blow to the Saudi-led group

The United Arab Emirates announced on Tuesday it is leaving the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and the broader OPEC+ alliance, striking a significant blow to the oil producers’ cartel and its de facto leader, Saudi Arabia, at a moment when the Iran war has triggered a historic energy shock and roiled global markets.

The departure of the UAE – OPEC’s third-largest producer and a member for nearly six decades – is expected to weaken the group’s cohesion and its ability to coordinate production quotas, potentially opening the door to greater supply and lower prices once the current disruptions ease. UAE Energy Minister Suhail Mohamed al-Mazrouei told Reuters the decision followed a careful review of the country’s current and future energy strategies and production policies. He added that the UAE had not consulted Saudi Arabia or any other country beforehand.

Mazrouei said the move would have limited immediate market impact because of the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint through which roughly one-fifth of global oil and LNG normally flows. Gulf producers have struggled to ship exports amid Iranian threats and attacks linked to the war.

The exit also reflects deeper tensions within the Gulf. Just a day earlier, UAE diplomatic adviser Anwar Gargash publicly criticized fellow Arab states and the Gulf Cooperation Council for what he called their “historically weakest” political and military response to Iranian attacks on the UAE.

A clear win for Trump – and a contrast to strained U.S.-Saudi relations

The UAE’s breakaway represents a notable victory for U.S. President Donald Trump, who has long accused OPEC of “ripping off the rest of the world” by restricting output to inflate prices. Trump has repeatedly tied U.S. military protection of Gulf states to oil pricing, arguing that Washington’s security umbrella allows OPEC members to exploit American support with high energy costs.

The timing amplifies the political boost for Trump. The UAE, one of Washington’s closest allies in the region and a key hub for U.S. business and defence ties, is effectively rejecting the Saudi-dominated cartel’s constraints at a moment when U.S.-Saudi relations have shown clear signs of strain in recent months.

Since early 2026, Riyadh has pushed back against Trump administration policies, most notably pressing Washington to lift its naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and return to negotiations with Iran. Saudi officials fear the blockade – part of U.S. efforts to choke Iranian oil exports – could provoke Tehran into disrupting the Bab al-Mandeb strait, further threatening Gulf shipping routes.

Public friction has added to the chill. In March, Trump made undiplomatic remarks directed at Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, which Saudi officials viewed as provocative. Riyadh has also moved ahead with defence and economic agreements – including with Ukraine – without prior consultation with Washington, signalling greater strategic independence.

Analysts note that Saudi Arabia has been hedging its bets more actively, deepening ties with China, Russia, and other partners while reassessing the reliability of the long-standing U.S. security guarantee amid perceived American unpredictability on Iran and regional issues.

By contrast, the UAE’s decision to break ranks with OPEC aligns more closely with Trump’s long-standing pressure on the cartel and his emphasis on lower global oil prices – a priority as the U.S. seeks to insulate American consumers and producers from OPEC+ influence.

OPEC+ sources told Reuters the alliance would continue coordinating without the UAE, though its market power will be diminished. The UAE has indicated it intends to pursue greater production flexibility to meet rising global demand and advance its own long-term energy vision.

The move takes effect on 1 May. Oil markets were already volatile due to the Iran conflict; analysts will now watch whether the UAE’s independence leads to a more fragmented producer landscape – and potentially softer prices – in the months ahead.

With Reuters, edited by g.g.

Caption: File photo. Khalid Al-Falih, President of the Opec conference and Saudi Arabia’s energy minister is seen behind a Opec logo during news conference at the headquarters of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries in Vienna, Austria, 30 November 2017. EPA/LISI NIESNER