EditUkrainian drone strikes on Moscow could mark a turning point in the war
Putin’s strategy of preserving the capital from the war fallout is visibly crumbling under the pressure of increasingly bold Ukrainian drone strikes
In one of the largest Ukrainian drone assaults on the Russian capital region in over a year, at least four people were killed and infrastructure was damaged near Moscow, prompting fresh speculation that deepening strikes on Russian soil may finally force President Vladimir Putin to seek an end to the war he launched more than four years ago.
According to Russian officials cited by Reuters, Ukraine launched hundreds of drones overnight, with Moscow’s air defences intercepting 81 heading toward the capital alone. Three deaths occurred in the Moscow region (in Khimki and the Mytishchi district), and a fourth in the border Belgorod region. Twelve people were wounded, and damage was reported to residential buildings, while Moscow’s Sheremetyevo airport saw drone debris but no major disruption.
Major fire erupts in Moscow near Izmailovsky Kremlin with warehouses burning and the Northeast highway closed. Reports suggest an explosion was heard first, though it's unclear if connected to drone attacks. Moscow has been burning all day. pic.twitter.com/aVtVAWaRxY
— WarTranslated (@wartranslated) May 17, 2026
“To the sound of Eurovision songs, the Kyiv regime, financed by the EU, carried out yet another mass terrorist attack,” TASS news agency cited the ministry’s spokeswoman Maria Zakharova as saying.
Retaliation and escalation
The assault came days after Russia carried out its heaviest drone and missile barrage on Kyiv in the entire war, killing dozens of civilians. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy explicitly framed the strikes as justified retaliation, posting video of the operation and stating: “Our responses to Russia’s prolongation of the war… are entirely justified.” He added that Ukraine can now hit targets more than 500 km inside Russia despite dense air defences.
Zelenskyy’s message was blunt: “We are clearly telling the Russians: their state must end its war.”
A potential turning point?
While the immediate human and material toll in Russia remains limited compared to the devastation in Ukraine, the psychological and symbolic impact of repeated successful deep strikes on Moscow is significant.
For more than four years, to preserve his power base, Putin has deliberately kept Moscow largely insulated from the realities of the war he launched, maintaining an illusion of normalcy in the Russian capital. That carefully crafted strategy is now visibly crumbling under the pressure of increasingly bold Ukrainian drone strikes reaching the outskirts of the city.
Some analysts and Ukrainian officials argue this shift could prove decisive. By demonstrating the ability to strike deep into Russia’s perceived safe rear – including energy infrastructure, airfields, and now Moscow itself – Ukraine is increasing the domestic cost of the war for Putin’s regime. Recent months have seen a surge in Ukrainian long-range drone production and effectiveness, allowing Kyiv to hit refineries, depots, and military assets far from the front lines.
Whether this forces Putin toward serious negotiations remains uncertain. Russia continues to deny targeting civilians and accuses Ukraine of “terrorism,” while maintaining its military campaign. However, the combination of battlefield pressure, economic strain from lost energy revenues, and visible vulnerabilities around Moscow could push the Kremlin to reconsider its maximalist goals.
This latest attack underscores a broader trend: Ukraine has seized greater initiative in the long-range drone war, even as ground fighting remains grinding and attritional. With both sides trading massive aerial barrages, the conflict appears to be entering a phase where neither can fully shield its population or rear areas.
On the diplomatic front, Ukraine finds itself in a relatively comfortable position in recent months, as the ongoing war with Iran has kept President Trump busy elsewhere, preventing him from actively interfering in or pushing his usual peace proposals that clearly benefit Russia.
A potential black swan event – whether widespread internal dissent or an outright coup in the Kremlin – cannot be ruled out, as four years into the war, the politically weaker state appears to be Russia, not Ukraine.
Caption: People stand at the site of a damaged apartment building following a drone attack outside Moscow, Russia, 17 May 2026. According to Russian authorities, at least three people were killed in overnight drone attacks. Air defenses shot down 556 Ukrainian drones in more than a dozen regions, including Moscow. EPA/MAXIM SHIPENKOV
Updated: May 17, 2026 - 17:49
