EditUkraine’s EU accession to be decided by Trump and Putin’s signatures?
EU's traditional enlargement process has always demanded that candidate countries fully align with the bloc's extensive body of laws
Four years after Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022, the EU is actively exploring an unprecedented plan that could grant Ukraine partial membership as early as next year, with a target of fuller integration by 2027.
This initiative, reported by Politico and based on insights from ten officials and diplomats, reflects Brussels’ determination to anchor Kyiv firmly within European structures, counter Moscow’s influence, and provide a credible pathway toward ending the devastating war.
Asked why the timeline for Ukraine’s accession is so important, Zelenskyy told reporters in Kyiv on Friday: “Because the date will be signed by Ukraine, Europe, the USA and Russia.” He referred to the peace agreement, currently under negotiation.
Such approach marks a significant departure from the EU’s traditional enlargement process, which has always demanded that candidate countries fully align with the bloc’s extensive body of laws – the acquis communautaire, before gaining membership privileges. In the current extraordinary circumstances of ongoing conflict and urgent diplomatic efforts to secure peace, the EU is considering a phased or “membership-lite” model. Under this framework, Ukraine would receive early access to certain benefits, such as participation in select EU policies, access to funding, and even a symbolic seat at the table, while continuing to implement necessary reforms in areas like the judiciary, anti-corruption measures, and democratic governance. The concept, sometimes referred to as “reverse enlargement,” flips the conventional sequence: political and strategic commitment comes first, with technical alignment following in stages. This approach draws inspiration from French President Emmanuel Macron’s long-standing vision of a multi-speed Europe, allowing flexibility without permanently lowering standards.
The push for accelerated integration has gained momentum amid intense diplomatic activity surrounding a potential peace settlement. Ukrainian leaders, including President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, have consistently argued that a clear and binding timeline for EU accession serves as an essential security guarantee for Kyiv. It offers political, economic, and psychological reassurance that Ukraine will not face future aggression alone, while providing the West with a non-military means of deepening its commitment. Recent draft proposals, including a 20-point peace framework discussed among Western partners and reportedly incorporating Ukraine’s EU entry by 2027, elevate this goal from an aspirational target to a negotiated cornerstone of any viable end to hostilities. Such inclusion aims to address Moscow’s longstanding concerns about Western encroachment – particularly NATO expansion, by offering Ukraine substantial economic and political ties to the EU without immediate military alliances or permanent Western troop deployments on its territory.
External pressures have proven decisive in advancing this agenda. The United States, under President Donald Trump, has prioritized brokering a rapid conclusion to the war, viewing EU membership for Ukraine as a pragmatic element of compromise. Washington’s approach emphasizes swift resolution, with the administration signaling readiness to engage directly with reluctant EU members to facilitate progress.
Meanwhile, Russia’s stance, though demanding on territorial and security matters, appears to tolerate Ukraine’s EU economic and political integration as part of a broader bargain, provided it excludes NATO membership or enduring military presence. For Vladimir Putin’s regime, this could represent a face-saving mechanism to formalize a post-conflict reality that reduces escalation risks while preserving core red lines.
The imperative of linking peace to EU integration
The war has settled into a prolonged, attritional phase that risks permanently destabilising Europe’s eastern border unless a sustainable resolution emerges. Diplomatic channels, including trilateral engagements among the United States, Ukraine, and Russia, have increasingly highlighted EU membership as a central component of any enduring peace architecture. By embedding a defined accession path into negotiations, proponents argue that the EU can deliver tangible strategic depth to Ukraine, reinforcing deterrence against renewed aggression and bolstering Kyiv’s resilience during reconstruction.
This evolution represents a fundamental shift in enlargement philosophy. The traditional merit-based model, while rigorous, may not adequately respond to the geopolitical urgency at hand. Protracted exclusion could erode public support for reforms in Ukraine, foster disillusionment with Western partners, and weaken the EU’s credibility as a transformative force. Committing to phased accession, by contrast, would reaffirm the bloc’s foundational promise to foster peace, stability, and prosperity across the continent. It would demonstrate that the EU can adapt boldly to crises, using membership as the ultimate incentive for democratic consolidation even amid existential threats.
For the EU itself, embracing this path strengthens its geopolitical stature. Rejecting it risks signaling weakness in the face of authoritarian challenges, potentially emboldening adversaries elsewhere.
Overcoming obstacles and charting a phased future
The most formidable internal hurdle remains Hungary, led by Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, whose opposition blends personal, strategic, and domestic political factors. Orbán has consistently blocked progress on Ukraine’s accession talks, citing concerns over security, economic impacts, and resource allocation within the EU budget. With Hungarian elections set on 12 April, some EU leaders anticipate a possible leadership shift or reevaluation that could alter Budapest’s position, including through opposition calls for referendums.
If Orbán remains in power, alternative strategies are under consideration. The United States could apply direct leverage, capitalizing on Trump’s relationship with the Hungarian leader to secure concessions. Historical precedents show Washington successfully influencing Orbán on issues like sanctions, suggesting similar pressure might extend to enlargement. In extreme scenarios, discussions in European capitals have touched on activating Article 7 mechanisms to suspend Hungary’s voting rights on enlargement questions, though this remains a distant option to avoid domestic political fallout.
To render the plan viable, the EU is refining creative mechanisms that preserve the integrity of full membership while addressing wartime realities.
Other candidates, such as Moldova and those in the Western Balkans, have voiced support for flexible solutions that maintain long-term standards while meeting immediate strategic needs.
Meanwhile, critics in capitals like Berlin express concerns about potential dilution of cohesion or precedent-setting risks, yet advocates counter that prolonged exclusion poses far greater threats to unity and security.
In late January 2026, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz ruled out the possibility of Ukraine joining the European Union on 1 January 2027, calling it “out of the question” and “impossible.” He made the remarks in Berlin following discussions with his coalition partners.
Merz emphasized that any country seeking EU membership, including Ukraine, must fully satisfy the Copenhagen criteria, a rigorous set of political, economic, and legal standards. This process, he noted, typically takes several years, not months.
While firmly rejecting a rapid timeline, the chancellor reaffirmed Ukraine’s long-term European perspective. “Ukraine must definitely be given the prospect of accession,” Merz said, adding that the EU could “slowly and gradually bring Ukraine closer” to membership over time.
An EU official, speaking anonymously to Reuters, expressed concern that any shortcut for Ukraine could undermine the position of countries that have followed the traditional, lengthy accession path – such as Montenegro and Albania, and have already met many of the required conditions.
Sources: Politico, Reuters, European Pravda
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Caption: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is welcomed by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen at the Euro Summit in Brussels, Belgium, 23 October 2025. EU leaders convene in Brussels to discuss the situation Ukraine, European defence, developments in the Middle East, competitiveness, housing and migration. EPA/Yves Herman / POOL
Updated: February 10, 2026 - 13:21
