Ukraine’s 2027 budget exposes a $32.6bn aid gap: can reforms unlock the money?

Ukraine will need $52.6 billion in foreign assistance to close its 2027 budget deficit, lawmaker Vasyl Mokan warned this week, underscoring how far the wartime state remains from fiscal self-sufficiency. Only about $20 billion of that sum is currently locked in under existing agreements. The rest is still being negotiated.

Ukraine continues to evaluate its budget needs in dollars, although those gaps are mainly filled by the EU, whose currency is the euro.

The Cabinet submitted the draft budget to parliament in mid-September. It projects revenues of 5.65 trillion hryvnias against spending of 7.27 trillion hryvnias. Defence and security alone account for 4.89 trillion hryvnias, or 43.8 percent of GDP. The overall deficit is forecast at 15 percent of GDP. Officials say they will look to the European Union, G7 countries, the IMF, the World Bank and Britain to fill the hole.

Mokan, a member of the Verkhovna Rada, put the problem bluntly: Ukraine is becoming more, not less, dependent on outside money. A large share of next year’s financing still has no confirmed source. That warning comes as Kyiv already faces cash-flow strain in the current year.

The European Union has the instruments to cover much of the gap. The Ukraine Facility, worth up to €50 billion through 2027, and the separate €90 billion Ukraine Support Loan for 2026–27 were designed precisely for a candidate country at war. Disbursements, however, are not automatic. They are linked to the Ukraine Plan, a detailed list of reforms that Brussels treats as both a reconstruction roadmap and an accession test. Many of the outstanding steps concern the judiciary, prosecutorial independence and the fight against corruption.

Implementation has lagged. Independent monitors scored Ukraine only 15 out of 100 on a priority reform package agreed with the EU in late 2025. Parliament has delayed or blocked bills on judicial selection, anti-corruption strategy and the powers of specialized agencies. Some Facility payments have been held back or released only in part. An August review identified billions still at risk because of unmet indicators, although Brussels did approve a €2.8 billion instalment in September after Kyiv completed 11 of 20 required steps.

The delay is politically costly. At the same time that reformers in Brussels are waiting for legislation, Ukraine’s own anti-graft bodies have been unusually active. Operation Midas, the investigation into an alleged $100 million kickback scheme at state nuclear operator Energoatom, has implicated businessman Timur Mindich, a longtime associate of President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, and former presidential chief of staff Andriy Yermak. In August, investigators raided the home of deputy presidential chief of staff Iryna Mudra over an alleged money-laundering scheme used to post bail for a former energy minister; she was dismissed the same day. In early September, Prosecutor General Ruslan Kravchenko resigned after National Anti-Corruption Bureau officers scaled a gate to search his office in a case involving protection payments from illegal call-centre operations.

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The contrast is striking. The specialized agencies – NABU and the Specialized Anti-Corruption Prosecutor’s Office – continue to pursue cases that reach the highest levels of government. That activity demonstrates they retain operational independence. Yet the broader legislative and institutional changes the EU has made a condition for larger volumes of pre-accession money have moved far more slowly.

For Kyiv the timing is unforgiving. The 2027 budget assumes continued heavy fighting and therefore continued heavy spending. Partners have the funds, but they have also made clear that access depends on measurable progress against corruption. Until parliament delivers the missing reforms, a significant part of next year’s financing will remain provisional.

This article draws on reporting by EUalive’s partners European Pravda and Suspilne.

Caption: EU Commissioner for Enlargement Marta Kos (L) and Minister of Justice of the Republic of Poland and Prosecutor General Waldemar Zurek (R) paticipate in the panel ‘From Reforms to Results: The Rule of Law and the Fight Against Corruption in Ukraine’s Accession Process’ during the Ukraine Recovery Conference 2026 at the European Solidarity Centre in Gdansk, Poland, 25 June 2026. The Ukraine Recovery Conference, co-hosted by Poland and Ukraine, takes place on 25 and 26 June 2026. EPA/MARCIN GADOMSKI