Ukraine faces mounting battlefield losses as EU leaders grapple with support strategy at Brussels summit

As Russian forces intensify their offensive in eastern Ukraine, breaching defensive lines and capturing key territories, European Union leaders are convening an emergency summit in Brussels today to address the escalating crisis and bolster support for Kyiv.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, attending the summit, faces a dire situation on the front lines, with reports of Russian advances of up to 20 kilometres per day in southern Donetsk and Sumy regions, exposing Ukraine’s exhausted defences.

The summit, overshadowed by U.S. President Donald Trump’s recent pause on military aid and his push for a swift peace deal with Russia, underscores Europe’s urgent need to fill the gap left by Washington’s wavering commitment, even as internal divisions and Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s veto threaten to undermine a unified response.

Ukraine’s frontline struggles intensify

Recent posts on social media and reports from German outlet Die Welt paint a grim picture of Ukraine’s military situation, with Russian forces exploiting weakened defensive lines. In southern Donetsk, the capture of Oleksiivka on 24 June enabled a 4-5 kilometre advance, while fighting continues around Komar.

In Sumy, Russian troops have reportedly seized 50% of Yunakivka, with clashes ongoing in Mala Korchakivka. Die Welt notes that Ukraine’s fourth defensive line has been partially breached, with troops hampered by shortages of personnel, ammunition, and air defences. These setbacks follow a year of territorial losses, with Russia controlling 18% of Ukraine’s territory by mid-2025, according to the Institute for the Study of War.

The timing is critical as Zelenskyy arrives in Brussels seeking robust EU support. A Russian missile strike on a Kyiv hotel on 19 June, killing four and injuring over 30, including foreign nationals, underscores the war’s unrelenting toll. Ukraine’s military, stretched thin after three years of conflict, faces a “catastrophic” shortage of artillery shells and drones, per a Ukrainian defence official quoted by Euronews.

Trump’s suspension of U.S. military aid and intelligence-sharing in March, coupled with his public scolding of Zelenskyy for alleged ingratitude, has left Kyiv reliant on European allies, who supplied 40% of its military aid in 2024, according to NATO estimates.

EU summit: a push for defence and unity

Today’s summit, chaired by European Council President António Costa, aims to reinforce Europe’s commitment to Ukraine while addressing its own defence needs amid fears of Russian aggression spilling beyond Ukraine’s borders.

Building on a 6 March summit where 26 EU leaders (excluding Hungary) endorsed a €30.6 billion aid package for Ukraine and loosened fiscal rules to boost defence spending, today’s agenda focuses on security guarantees and military support. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen’s five-point plan, unveiled in March, proposes €150 billion in joint borrowing and €800 billion in defence investments over a decade, redirecting EU recovery and cohesion funds to military projects.

French President Emmanuel Macron, a vocal advocate for European autonomy, has stirred debate by offering France’s nuclear deterrent as a shield for the EU, a proposal welcomed by Poland and the Baltics but met with scepticism by Germany’s outgoing Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who emphasised NATO’s existing framework.

However, Hungary’s Orbán, a Trump ally and Russia’s closest EU partner, remains a hurdle. His veto of Ukraine-related statements in March forced a 26-nation endorsement, and diplomats fear a repeat today, with Slovakia potentially aligning with Budapest. In particular, Ukraine’s push for rapid EU accession faces a critical hurdle as Orbán threatens to veto progress.

“Plan B” for Ukraine’s EU accession: Brussels’ strategy to counter Hungary’s veto

Orbán’s alignment with Trump’s push for a U.S.-Russia deal excluding Europe and Ukraine fuels concerns of a “dictated peace” that could compromise Kyiv’s sovereignty. “There can be no negotiations without Ukraine,” the EU-26 declared in March, a stance likely to be reiterated today.

Challenges and divisions

The EU’s resolve is tested by practical and political obstacles. Europe’s defence industry, despite increased funding, struggles to replace U.S. aid, with production bottlenecks limiting artillery and missile supplies. Zelenskyy has urged the EU to bolster Ukraine’s domestic arms production, which is cheaper and closer to the front lines, but von der Leyen’s plan faces resistance from fiscally cautious states like Hungary over joint borrowing. The EU’s €183 billion in frozen Russian assets, held in Belgium, remains a contentious funding option, with legal and diplomatic barriers to seizure.

Public sentiment in Europe, strained by economic challenges since 2008, risks fuelling populist backlash against defence spending hikes, as noted by Nick Witney of the European Council on Foreign Relations.

As EU leaders meet, the summit’s outcome will signal whether Europe can unite to shore up Ukraine’s defences and assert itself as a security actor. With Russian forces advancing and U.S. reliability in question, Zelenskyy’s plea for air defences and military aid, echoed in his X post yesterday, underscores the stakes: “Ukraine expects strong signals of support.” For now, Europe’s commitment is clear, but its ability to deliver amid battlefield losses and political fractures remains uncertain.

With Reuters, Die Welt, edited by g.g.

Caption: L-R) British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni of Italy, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, French President Emmanuel Macron, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz stand foor a group photo during the final meeting at the NATO Summit in The Hague, The Netherlands, 25 June 2025. The Netherlands, for the first time in NATO’s history of existence, is hosting a NATO summit. EPA/SEM VAN DER WAL