Ukraine and the EU: Destined to jointly lead the West

Should European defence forces be established to counter the rising threat of Russian military aggression, Ukraine will inevitably form its backbone, writes Roman Rukomeda.

Roman Rukomeda is a Ukrainian political analyst writing exclusively for EUalive

Over the past five years, the global landscape has been rocked by unpredictable crises. The world in 2025 looks markedly different from what it was before Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and even compared to 2024, during the presidency of U.S. President Joseph Biden.

In today’s chaotic world, Ukraine and the EU are two interlocking pieces of a larger puzzle. Since 2019, the EU and broader Europe have navigated the COVID-19 pandemic, which reshaped societal, cultural, business, and communication norms. Meanwhile, since 2022, Ukraine has summoned immense internal strength, resolve, and resources to counter Russia’s full-scale military aggression, halt Russian terrorist forces, and forge a new mode of survival. Together, the EU and Ukraine have redefined their bilateral relationship and mutual reliance since 2022, when the critical ‘bridge’ of military and humanitarian aid through Ukraine’s western border enabled Kyiv to endure and secure vital supplies.

United, the EU and Ukraine are committed to pursuing a shared journey of integration and safeguarding European values of freedom, democracy, and human rights, especially after the 47th U.S. President, Donald Trump, stepped back from America’s role as the leader of the democratic community and champion of Western civilization.

The moment has arrived for the EU to emerge as an independent geopolitical force and master the ability to shield itself from autocratic aggression. Ukraine serves as the critical linchpin in addressing the EU’s challenges and questions, as an inseparable part of a united Europe. With the continent’s most battle-hardened armed forces, forged through extensive experience in a full-scale war against Putin’s Russia—supported by an alliance of autocracies including Belarus, Iran, and North Korea—Ukraine is central to this endeavor.

As the U.S. increasingly withdraws from Europe, including its military presence, Ukraine’s defensive prowess can bolster the EU’s eastern flank and shield it from Russian threats. Ukraine’s military industry and extensive combat experience offer unique strengths, which it is prepared to contribute to a shared European defence and security framework alongside the EU, UK, Norway, and other European nations.

There is an opportunity for a transformative shift in political and security relations, with Ukraine integrating into the European defence system and political framework as a new EU member. This process is quickly taking on new procedural forms and could be fully defined following the June EU Council.

France and Germany, in close partnership with the United Kingdom, are the primary forces behind the EU’s defence initiative, with the key challenge being to marginalize pro-Russian states like Hungary and Slovakia in the EU’s decision-making process. If EU leaders can navigate around these obstacles, there is cause for optimism regarding cohesive EU policies and collective decisions, including defence and support for Ukraine.

Regrettably, U.S. President Trump has undermined America’s role as the leader and protector of the global democratic community. Upon taking office, he quickly demonstrated that democracy, liberalism, human rights, state sovereignty, and freedom are no longer U.S. priorities, instead reverting to policies reminiscent of the troubling Yalta post-World War II order.

Due to external threats and uncertainties, Ukraine must prioritize its partnership with Europe as its primary ally and prepare for a potential complete halt in cooperation with the U.S., which is increasingly aligning with Russia. Furthermore, Trump’s push for an agreement granting access to Ukraine’s resources as repayment for prior U.S. aid signals pressure on the victim (Ukraine) rather than deterrence of the aggressor (Russia).”

There is a danger that the proposed U.S.-Ukraine resources agreement may fail to be signed or ratified by the Ukrainian Parliament. This could prompt Trump to claim that Ukraine is unwilling to cooperate with the U.S., and pivot even more toward Russia, despite the ongoing war, Russian war crimes, and threats to Europe. Such a scenario might compel Ukraine to seek new allies outside the Western sphere.

Should European defence forces be established to counter the rising threat of Russian military aggression, Ukraine will inevitably form its backbone. Currently, Ukraine’s army is the only European force with proven capability to repel a Russian invasion, boasting extensive experience in modern warfare and proficiency with nearly all NATO weapon systems, except for advanced naval, air force, and certain other specialized capabilities.

The EU and broader Europe remain Ukraine’s primary political and military allies, though this partnership carries risks. Europe faces persistent interference and attacks from Russia and the U.S., which back far-right political movements aimed at undermining EU and pan-European unity. Should Europe withdraw support for Ukraine after the war ends, the next wave of Russian aggression is likely to target EU and NATO members, particularly in the Baltic region.

Should the evolving geopolitical landscape drive Europe toward a trade agreement with China amid intense pressure from Trump’s tariff war, ensuring a just peace in Ukraine and securing guarantees against future Russian aggression toward Ukraine and other European nations must be the EU’s central focus in negotiations with Beijing.

The EU and Ukraine share a singular political fate, bound to mutually ensure their survival and to forge a renewed global role for Europe. Both have no alternative.