EditUK elections 2026 : all changed, changed utterly?
The devolved administrations in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland will for the first time be led by First Ministers who promote national independence
Thursday’s elections in the United Kingdom raise many questions. The most immediate question is whether Keir Starmer can survive? Then there is the broader question what does the election mean for British politics and specifically is it the end of the two-party system. There is also a question, somewhat overplayed – what does the election mean for the United Kingdom – how long it will remain united?
EUalive’s columnist Dick Roche is a former Irish Minister of State for European Affairs. His columns can be found here.
A bad day for Labour in England
In the 7 May elections the Labour Party saw a very steep drop in support across the United Kingdom since the July 2024 General Election. In that election Labour received 34% of the vote. Given the idiosyncrasies of the British first-past-the-post electoral system that translated into 411 members in the 650-seat House of Commons – the second largest majority enjoyed by any incoming British Government in the 22 General elections fought since 1945. The only incoming Prime Minister to enter Government with a larger majority in those 22 elections was Tony Blair.
Since the 2024 General election Labour Party favorability in polling across England Scotland and Wales has declined steadily. Polling in May 2025 local elections showed Labour at 22.45%.
An analysis conducted for the BBC projects that a General Election, based on voting results in the May 7th elections, in a General Election Labour would receive a 17% vote.
Projections aside, the actual 7 May elections produced some stunning reversals for the Labour party and Sir Keir Starmer. In the English Council Elections Labour lost 1,496 Council seats and lost control of 38 Councils.
The Party’s biggest losses were in areas where support had previously been rock-solid. It haemorrhaged votes, Council seats and Council leadership to Nigel Farage’s Reform UK party in former Labour heartlands. A defeated Councilor from one such area described the reception he had received while canvassing and the result in his Council election as ‘unfathomable’. In the cities Labour lost votes and seats to the Greens.
Disaster in Wales and gloom in Scotland
Labour losses in the elections to the devolved Parliaments of Scotland and Wales were also striking.
The 7 May elections for the Welsh Parliament, Senedd Cymru, produced a historic realignment of politics. The elections saw the end of 100 years of Labour party dominance in Welsh Politics.
Plaid Cymru, the Welsh nationalist, centre left party made an historic breakthrough. The party won 35.4% of the votes giving it 43 of the 96 seats in the Senedd. Reform came in second with a vote of 29.3% winning 34 seats. Labour came a poor third with 11.1% of the vote – down 25 points since the 2021 election – and only 9 seats. The Conservatives won 7 seats, the Greens 2 seats and the Liberal Democrats held its single seat.
As a result of the election the Labour party loses control of the devolved Welsh administration for the first time since its introduction in 1999. The outgoing Welsh First Minister Labour’s Eluned Morgan, failed to retain her seat in the Senedd election.
The elections to the 129 seat Scottish Parliament were also gloomy for Labour. The Scottish National party headed the poll in the elections winning 58 seats in the 129 seat Parliament, down 6 seats since the 2021 elections. The Labour Party took 17 seats, down 5 since 2021 putting it in an equal second place with Reform which also won 17 seats but with a lower vote than Labour. The Green party won 15 seats, up 7 from 2021, the Conservatives won 12 seats down 19 from 2021 and the Liberal Democrats returned with 10 seats up 6 from the previous election. The elections demonstrated a more competitive political landscape in Scotland. The Conservatives lost heavily to Reform and to the Liberal Democrats. Labour lost votes to Reform and the Greens.
Starmer’s future
In the immediate aftermath of the election many felt that Sir Keir Starmer could be packing to leave 10 Downing Street in a matter of days.
The election results triggered panic in the ranks of the Parliamentary Labour Party, particularly amongst MPs elected for the first time in 2024. Many blamed Starmer’s “style” and his lack of appeal amongst voters for Labour’s problems. His judgement also came in for criticism, although and rather oddly very few referenced the Mandelson affair.
Overlooking the fact that the next UK General Election does not have to take place until August 2029 many used the prospect of Nigel Farage marching into Downing Street as a reason for Starmer to leave office immediately. In addition to overlooking the fact that an election does not have to take place until 2029, this line also overlooks the fact that and that Reform notwithstanding its extraordinary performance in the elections has seen its ratings slip and is a long way short of the type of vote needed to form a government without coalition partners.
In the days following the release of the election results 81 MPs went on record as dissatisfied with the Prime Minister’s leadership. That figure is important. Labour party rules provide that anyone seeking to replace the party leader must first get a nomination from a minimum of 81 MPs.
However 81 MPs being disgruntled with the leader does not in itself trigger a leadership election. Party rules require that a challenger receive at least 81 written nominations. So far that has not happened. In addition, and something that has received rather less media attention, as of midday on May 12th, a letter of support for the Prime Minister has attracted more than 100 signatures.
The first Cabinet meeting after the election, on 12 May, went rather better for Starmer that many anticipated. Prior to the meeting a briefing from Downing Street noted that “the Labour Party has a process for challenging a leader and that has not been triggered.” At the meeting the Prime Minister re-emphasized that and made it clear that he had no intention of stepping aside. He also said if a contest is held, he will contest it.
In the Cabinet meeting – such formats are supposed to be secret – no Minister called on the Prime Minister to resign. Unusually after the meeting several Ministers briefed the press pack in Downing Street pointing out that no challenge was made at the meeting and that Starmer intended to “get on with running the country”. The line pressed by the Prime Minister and his supporters was that the country expects Labour to govern rather than become engrossed in internal party politics as happened with the Tories.
In addition to the challenges facing the Prime Minister, potential leadership candidates face problems. Andy Burnham the Mayor of Greater Manchester who is favoured by the left is not an MP and therefore cannot stand if a leadership contest is triggered immediately. Before entering the leadership race, Burnham must win a byelection at a time when there are no vacancies and very few safe constituencies for Labour. Wes Streeting the Health Secretary in contrast would favour an early contest but does not want to be the MP who launches the campaign to remove Starmer. These differences can be exploited to advantage by the Starmer camp.
A third potential candidate, Angela Reyner, a former deputy party leader and a potential candidate of the ‘soft left,’ has been hampered from entering the race by an ongoing inquiry into her tax affairs.
While the first cabinet meeting since the election went well for him Sir Keir Starmer is not ‘out of the woods. Following the Cabinet meeting three junior Ministers resigned keeping the pressure up on the Prime Minister and there may well be resignations to come. If a Cabinet member were to resign things could change rapidly.
Taken overall Keir Starmer while under severe pressure is not gone yet. The drama surrounding his position has, however, still some road to run.
Other issues raised by the election results
The election results have wider implications for British politics beyond the impact on Starmer and his party.
The BBC analysis mentioned earlier projects that if the results in the voting on 7 May were replicated in a general election, they would herald an extraordinary realignment in British politics. By extrapolating the detailed results from 1,000 electoral wards, the respected polling analysist Professor Sir John Curtice concluded that in a General Election last week’s vote would see Reform winning 26% of the vote. This figure while dramatic, is far lower than the vote that elected any party to government since 1945. The Curtice analysis projected the Greens, Labour, Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats all bunched between 18% and 16% of the vote indicating a deep and unprecedented fragmentation.
That analysis raises multiple questions.
One immediate question that arises is the capacity of the UK first past the post system to cope with the situation where multiple of parties are contesting single seat constituencies. As politics becomes more fragmented, the first past the post system inevitably produces results that are less representative further weakening public confidence in democracy.
The election results and the analysis also raises questions for the Conservative Party and its future. While the Conservative leader, Kemi Badenoch, proclaimed that the party had “done brilliantly” it didn’t. It lost more than half of the seats that it was defending. Like Labour the Conservatives suffered their heaviest losses in places where it had traditionally drawn its strongest support. The Conservative leadership will have to establish how, going forward, it will coexist with Reform. In by-elections and in the next general election will the two parties reach an accommodation to avoid ‘splitting’ the ‘likeminded’ vote.
For the Reform success could become a problems. The massive influx of new Councilors is not without risk. Where a political movement expands rapidly challenges are bound to emerge. Vetting of candidates becomes harder. In the social media era activity by inexperienced elected representatives could become a particular headache for Reform which is looking to shape its national profile ahead of national elections. In terms of delivery, the influx of over 1400 councilors into local administrations will result in the party coming under closer scrutiny. Reform which has benefitted from anti-establishment sentiment will now be expected to deliver – particularly in those Councils where the party has taken control. Reform will also face the problem of reaching some form of accommodation with the Conservatives to avoid vote splitting in Parliamentary elections.
One final question that arises from the election results is its impact on the United Kingdom. As a result of the elections the devolved administrations in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland will for the first time be led by First Ministers who promote national independence. This has prompted some commentators to question whether the results herald the beginning of the end for the United Kingdom. That however is unlikely to happen.
In Scotland, the Scottish National Party and the Green Party are both committed to supporting an independence referendum. The parties control 73 of the 129 in the seats in the Scottish Parliament. John Swinney the incoming first Minister has argued that a referendum should be held before the UK general election which is due in 2029. The final decision as to whether a referendum on Scottish independence will be held will rest with the UK Parliament.
Plaid Cymru the largest party in the in the Welsh Parliament with 43 of the 96 seats supports the principle of a Welsh independence referendum. It has not, however committed to hold one during its first term in government.
In the case of Northern Ireland, a referendum on the province’s constitutional status would be triggered under the terms of the 1998 Good Friday Agreement by the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland. There were no elections held in Northern Ireland on 7 May. The results in the elections held on that day will have very little if any direct impact on the issue of a ‘border poll’ in the province.
All changed
The results of the 7 May elections have been described as ‘seismic,’ and to an extent that description is not entirely wrong. The emergence of Reform in all three countries is striking but the actual impact of that will take sone time to work through. The big test for Reform and its leadership will be how to build on its gains between now and the next UK general election. That could be quite a challenge.
The decline of Labour and the Conservatives and in particular their loss of support in their heartland areas is particularly striking and likely to endure. What the two parties can do to stem that is not entirely clear.
The biggest challenge of all faces Sir Keir Starmer. Through 12 May he has demonstrated a determination to fight on. While he has lost support amongst MPs, his personal support has not haemorrhaged to the point that he must go. AS mentioned, the position of the likely contenders for the Prime Minister’s job in not without complications. Andy Burnham’s position is particularly complex. He could probably get the 81 nominations needed to challenge Starmer but to move forward he must become an MP. To do that he must find a safe seat to contest in a by-election and then go on to win the by-election, no small challenge given the bloodbath Labour endured on 7th May. The situation is also complicated, for Wes Streeting the Health Secretary. A quick campaign launch would suit him best. That however makes him vulnerable, particularly while Keir Starmer insists that he will contest any efforts to remove him. If Streeting is the one who wields the dagger he will not be forgiven by Starmer’s supporters. Having stepped down as Deputy Prime Minister over a tax inquiry that has not yet been finalized Angela Rayner cannot move to the starting gate.
The Kings Speech, the occasion when the monarch outlines the government’s proposed legislative agenda for the upcoming parliamentary session will be delivered on 13 May. Whether the 13 is an auspicious date for ‘launch’ of a legislative programme that is important to the Prime Minister’s survival remains to be seen.
Caption: Graffiti referencing the prime minister of the United Kingdom, Sir Keir Starmer, in a doorway on the eve of Scottish parliamentary elections in Edinburgh, Scotland, Britain, 06 May 2026. Polling will open on 7 May for the Scottish Parliamentary elections to elect 129 members to the Scottish Parliament. EPA/ADAM VAUGHAN
Updated: May 13, 2026 - 06:55
