Trump’s threats to NATO amid Iran war escalation: warnings ignored, allies pressured

The U.S.-Israeli war against Iran, now in its third week, has escalated into a major regional and global crisis, severely disrupting energy markets and straining key alliances – including NATO.

President Donald Trump, who authorized U.S. strikes beginning 28 February, faces criticism over intelligence warnings he reportedly received about the risks of Iranian retaliation against Gulf allies, even as he issues stark threats to NATO members for refusing to deploy naval forces to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

The conflict erupted when the U.S. joined Israel in airstrikes targeting Iranian nuclear facilities, missile sites, and other infrastructure, justified by claims of an imminent nuclear threat and long-range missile capabilities – assertions disputed by U.S. intelligence and Democratic lawmakers, who noted no evidence of an “imminent” danger. Iran retaliated swiftly with missile and drone barrages against Israeli targets, U.S. bases in the region, and – critically – Gulf Arab states including the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Bahrain, and Kuwait.

Iran has effectively blockaded the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow chokepoint carrying about 20% of global oil and liquefied natural gas trade, using drones, naval mines, and threats to shipping. This has driven Brent crude prices near $100 per barrel, spiked U.S. gasoline costs, halted operations at facilities like Dubai International Airport, damaged UAE oil infrastructure, and triggered widespread evacuations. Strikes have hit civilian areas, with reports of at least 2,000 deaths across the Middle East, including civilians and children in Iran. Iran has vowed further escalation, declaring any nation hosting U.S. forces a legitimate target.

Recent reporting reveals that Trump received explicit pre-strike warnings from U.S. intelligence about the high probability of Iranian retaliation extending beyond Israel to Gulf allies. Briefings emphasized that U.S. and Israeli attacks could provoke Tehran to target Gulf capitals and energy sites if those states were seen as complicit or hosting U.S. operations. Assessments highlighted risks of closing the Strait of Hormuz, strikes on U.S. assets, and broader regional attacks. One official described it as a prominent “potential outcome”: striking Iran “could trigger a broader regional conflict that would include Iranian retaliation against Gulf capitals.”

Despite these assessments, Trump has expressed public surprise at the attacks on Gulf states, stating: “They (Iran) weren’t supposed to go after all these other countries in the Middle East… Nobody expected that. We were shocked,” and claiming even “the greatest experts” did not foresee such moves. This apparent disconnect has intensified concerns about risk underestimation, contributing to the dangerous escalation now gripping the region, with ongoing strikes, Iranian missile fire at U.S. bases, and no clear path to de-escalation.

In response to the Hormuz blockade and attacks on Gulf partners, Trump has demanded that Western allies – especially NATO members – deploy warships to escort tankers and reopen the strait. He has criticized holdouts like Germany, Spain, and Italy, citing absent UN, EU, or NATO mandates (Germany’s Chancellor Friedrich Merz stressed legal constraints under Basic Law and lack of consultation).

Trump has accused allies of ingratitude after years of U.S. protection: “Some are countries that we’ve helped for many, many years. We’ve protected them from horrible outside sources, and they weren’t that enthusiastic. And the level of enthusiasm matters to me.”

Trump has gone further, issuing direct threats to NATO’s future. In interviews, including with the Financial Times, he warned that if allies fail to assist, “it will be very bad for the future of NATO.” He reiterated that the U.S. has supported distant conflicts like Ukraine, but reciprocity is absent, adding that beneficiaries of the strait should help secure it. He has also pressured non-NATO partners like China, Japan, South Korea, France, and Britain, threatening to delay a planned summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping.

“This is not our war”

Allies have largely refused: Japan and Australia stated no plans to send ships, while the EU declined to expand naval operations. On Monday EU foreign ministers convened in Brussels to address the mounting challenges posed by the ongoing U.S.-Israeli war against Iran, particularly the closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iranian forces and Trump’s demands for European naval assistance to reopen the vital shipping lane. Amid soaring global energy prices, disrupted oil supplies, and fears of broader economic fallout, EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas emphasized that keeping the strait open was directly in Europe’s interest, as it threatened energy security and commodity flows. However, discussions revealed limited appetite for expanding existing EU naval operations – such as Operation Aspides in the Red Sea- into the Persian Gulf or committing warships, with many ministers stressing that the conflict was “not Europe’s war” and lacked a formal UN, EU, or NATO mandate for military involvement.

These developments highlight how Trump’s strategy – launching the war with limited allied input, then demanding support amid ignored warnings – threatens to weaken NATO. The alliance, founded on collective defence under Article 5, faces strain when demands extend to Gulf security without formal invocation. Gulf states, suffering economic and security fallout despite non-involvement in initiating the conflict, have voiced frustration over inadequate prior notice and the war’s costs.

As Israel signals continued operations (including limited ground actions in Lebanon) and Iran promises more targets, the war shows no imminent resolution, while Trump’s threats risk eroding trust within NATO, potentially fracturing cohesion amid global instability from energy shocks, inflation fears, and widening Middle East violence.

With Reuters, with additional content by EUalive. .

Caption: US President Donald Trump holds a model stealth bomber during an Executive Order signing event in the Oval Office of the White House in Washington, DC, USA, 16 March 2026. The order will formally launch a task force, led by Vice President JD Vance, to investigate fraud nationwide. EPA/AARON SCHWARTZ / POOL