Trump’s shift on Ukraine at the G7: a tactical adjustment or the start of something more?

At the G7 summit in the French resort town Évian-les-Bains this week, U.S. President Donald Trump struck a noticeably firmer tone on the war in Ukraine than many European leaders had anticipated.

In a joint statement, the G7 pledged “unwavering support” for Kyiv, including more air defences, long-range weapons, and tightened sanctions on Russian oil and gas. Trump described Russia as the “offensive” party in the conflict and acknowledged that Moscow is losing more soldiers than Ukraine.

This marks a visible alignment with EU allies, at least rhetorically, and stands in contrast to earlier expectations that a second Trump term might push for rapid concessions from Kyiv.

What lies behind the change?

Several factors appear to have contributed to Trump’s more supportive posture:

Ukraine’s battlefield momentum: Recent Ukrainian strikes deep inside Russia, including successful drone operations targeting airbases, oil infrastructure, and strategic assets, have demonstrated Kyiv’s growing capabilities and resilience. These actions have undermined the narrative of inevitable Russian dominance and strengthened Ukraine’s negotiating leverage.
Steady European support: the EU and key member states have maintained consistent military, financial, and political backing for Ukraine. Contrary to any expectations in Washington of a swift Ukrainian collapse, Kyiv has held the line and even regained initiative in key areas. This sustained European commitment appears to have forced a recalibration in the U.S. approach.
Frustrating contacts with Putin: communication between Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin has reportedly become rare and unproductive. Moscow’s unwillingness to offer meaningful concessions has likely diminished Trump’s earlier optimism about a quick deal brokered from a position of Russian strength.

Trump’s own comments at the summit – including his tongue-in-cheek “I’m the boss” remark – reflected a leader keen to project dominance while adapting to realities on the ground.

A turning point?

We are light-years away from the infamous February 2025 White House meeting, when President Trump bluntly told Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy: “You don’t have the cards.”

The sky over Moscow is black from the smoke of burning oil. Oil rain may fall on the Kremlin itself.
In Putin's most important city, his weakness and the ruin he has led Russia to is now clear for all to see.
No amount of propaganda can hide the scale of his failures now.🔥 pic.twitter.com/GKms7IwVsP
— Maria Drutska 🇺🇦 (@maria_drutska) June 18, 2026

But it is still too early to call this a fundamental shift in Trump’s Ukraine policy. The president has long prioritised ending the war quickly, often emphasizing the need for a negotiated settlement that may require compromises from Kyiv. However, the G7’s unified statement and Trump’s public recognition of Russia as the aggressor suggest a pragmatic adjustment: acknowledging Ukraine’s improved position may give Washington more leverage in future talks with Moscow.

European leaders, including France’s Emmanuel Macron, welcomed what they described as a “real change in approach.” Whether this convergence survives beyond the summit – especially once detailed negotiations resume – remains to be seen. Trump’s policy has always been transactional and results-oriented. If Ukrainian successes continue and Putin remains intransigent, the current alignment could deepen.

For now, the Evian summit has produced something that seemed elusive in recent years: a relatively united Western front on Ukraine, with the U.S. president at least temporarily rowing in the same direction as his European counterparts. In the complex geopolitics of 2026, that itself counts as notable progress.

Caption: Handout photo made available by the Ukrainian Presidential Press Service shows Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky (L), and US President Donald J. Trump (L) talking on the sidelines of the G7 summit in Evian-les-Bains, France, 16 June 2026. The 52nd G7 Summit takes place in Evian-les-Bains from 15 to 17 June 2026. EPA/PRESIDENTIAL PRESS SERVICE HANDOUT