EditTrump’s East Med comeback: Is Cyprus next on the menu?
The conditions are ripening for White House involvement as part of a broader vision to roll back Russian and Chinese influence
Donald Trump’s return to the White House is igniting a strategic American comeback in the Eastern Mediterranean, with energy security at the spearhead and the Cyprus problem inevitably attached. While no official “Trump plan” for Cyprus has been tabled, the conditions are ripening for White House involvement as part of a broader vision to roll back Russian and Chinese influence, writes Stavros Antoniou.
The spark came immediately after Tufan Erhürman’s landslide victory in the occupied north. A Washington Examiner hypothesis suggested Trump could dangle defence cooperation, energy deals or commercial carrots that the UN never could, persuading Turkey to withdraw troops and accept a power-sharing formula.
Though sourced anonymously, Turkish media swallowed it whole, treating the Examiner as a deep-state mouthpiece. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan himself fuelled the rumour at an Islamic Cooperation Organisation meeting, complaining that “Ankara is receiving strong messages that Cyprus is being added to the imperialist menu in the region.” Cyprus President Nikos Christodoulides fired back: “The only imperialist here is Turkey.”
No concrete plan has materialised, yet the noise reflects a deeper reality: the Cyprus issue is being sucked into Washington’s new East Med geometry. Maritime zones, energy corridors and Greco-Turkish normalisation are interdependent; none can advance without a Cyprus settlement.
The big picture
Trump’s strategy has three pillars: detach Europe from Russian gas, bury the Turkey-Libya memorandum, and block China’s Belt and Road geostrategic depth. The India-Middle East-Europe Corridor (IMEC) and the Greece-Ukraine Vertical gas corridor are centre-stage. Cyprus resolution is the missing piece that unlocks everything else.
American moves
The 6th Transatlantic Energy Ministerial in Athens (6-7 November) was the showcase. Three US cabinet secretaries and a deputy attended alongside 25 EU ministers and 17 multinationals. Key outcomes:
- ExxonMobil joins Block 2 exploration northwest of the Ionian Sea.
- Greece signs for 20 years of American LNG from 2030, funnelled via the Vertical Corridor to Ukraine and Central Europe.
- Egypt inks MoU with ExxonMobil for new offshore plots.
US diplomats sound out Chevron’s return to Libya and pressure Israel to honour gas exports to Egypt. Chevron already holds four plots south of Crete and is ramping up Israel’s Leviathan.
3+1 revival
Washington reset the Cyprus-Greece-Israel+USA format with a joint statement in Athens reaffirming energy cooperation and regional stability. A follow-up is scheduled for Washington in Q2 2026. Israeli Energy Minister Eli Cohen’s remark to the Jerusalem Post about reviving a pipeline to Europe via Cyprus and Greece (excluding Turkey) was quickly branded domestic posturing.
Turkey: excluded yet indispensable
Ankara is sidelined from some projects but not all. Credible sources tell Politis that Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis’ proposal for a 5×5 coastal-states platform (Greece, Cyprus, Egypt, Turkey, Libya) is American-inspired. Turkish FM Hakan Fidan did not reject it, repeating that differences can be solved through dialogue – on both Greco-Turkish issues and Cyprus.
Atlantic Council expert Charles Ellinas confirms Washington wants Turkey inside the big energy tent: more Azerbaijani gas to Europe via Turkey, plus Iraqi oil. US Ambassador-designate Tom Barrack explicitly ruled out Israel-Turkey conflict. Erdoğan may thunder publicly as protector of the Muslim world, but backstage he cooperates. Trump understands Turkish strategic autonomy and needs Ankara – the only NATO member with leverage over Moscow – to help isolate Russia.
Trump’s inner circle
The President’s ambassadorial picks are deliberate and unconventional:
- Turkey: Tom Barrack, personal friend for decades.
- Greece: Kimberly Guilfoyle, Donald Jr’s ex-fiancée.
- Cyprus: John Breslow, campaign mega-donor and close confidant.
- Libya file: Massad Boulos (Trump in-law) is already smoothing the Turkey-Libya memorandum mess to clear the way for Chevron.
These are not career diplomats; they are direct lines to Trump’s ear. The same model worked in Gaza.
Conclusion
China is exploiting the Cyprus divide, offering Nicosia support in exchange for strategic footholds. Trump will not allow that vacuum. At some point he will engage – probably with unorthodox methods and personal envoys. Every regional player will ride the American wave but will also bargain hard. The more a country resists the new reality, the higher the price. For Cyprus, the Erhürman window of opportunity and surging US energy interest represent the best chance in decades. Adaptation, not resistance, is the only path to a settlement.
A longer original version of this article can be found here.
Caption: Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan (R) and US President Donald Trump (L) shake hands during the greetings ceremony before the family picture at the Gaza Peace Summit in Sharm El-Sheikh, Egypt, 13 October 2025. EPA/YOAN VALAT / POOL
Updated: November 10, 2025 - 07:41
