Trump’s Arctic ambitions reopen Norway’s dormant EU membership debate

Donald Trump’s plans to seek control over Greenland have not only alarmed Denmark. The prospect that Washington could extend similar pressure to other Arctic territories has unexpectedly pushed Norway back into a serious debate over whether remaining outside the European Union still serves its long-term interests.

The first country to react to the new geopolitical risks was Iceland, which has already announced a referendum on reopening accession talks with the EU. But Norway, which retains sovereignty over the Arctic archipelago of Svalbard, has also found itself in an increasingly exposed position.

A country that rejected EU membership in referendums in both 1972 and 1994 is now once again discussing the strategic benefits membership could bring. While there is no immediate plan for a new referendum, the prospect has re-entered political discussion in Oslo.

Opposition Conservative leader Ine Eriksen Søreide has openly called for a fresh membership application, while Brussels has also begun to seriously consider the possibility of a “northern enlargement”, stressing that such a move would not affect Ukraine’s accession timetable.

The renewed debate marks a significant shift for a country that has long enjoyed what many described as “membership without membership”.

Membership without joining

Norwegians rejected EU membership twice in referendums.

In 1972, 53.5% voted against joining what was then the European Economic Community. One of the key political consequences was that Norway concluded a free trade agreement with the EEC the following year, an arrangement that was later expanded and remains in force.

In 1992, Norway went a step further and formally applied for EU membership.

But two years later, in a second referendum with turnout approaching 90%, opponents again prevailed, with 52.2% voting against and 47.8% in favour.

Before that vote, Norway had already signed the agreement to join the European Economic Area, giving it broad access to the EU single market. That existing access was widely seen as one of the reasons why supporters of full membership lost, with the EEA becoming a kind of national compromise between both camps.

After 1994, there were no full-scale national debates on EU membership. Even now, Norwegians say the active question is less whether to join than whether the country should even reopen the debate.

For years, polling has shown a majority still opposed, driven above all by concerns over maintaining control of Norway’s energy wealth.

Security changes the equation

The mood began to shift after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, which gradually narrowed the gap between supporters and opponents of EU membership.

Concerns over Norway’s current relationship with Brussels intensified further last November, when the EU introduced safeguard measures on imports of certain ferroalloys, including against Norway, which remains outside the customs union.

Trump’s renewed Arctic focus and tariff policies have added a new layer of unease.

According to sociologists, support for EU membership rose noticeably after Trump announced sweeping import tariffs, though the initial euro-optimism later softened.

A recent poll for Dagsavisen and FriFagbevegelse showed that 51% would vote against EU membership if a referendum were held tomorrow, while 33% would support it and 17% remain undecided.

Notably, the strongest opposition comes from younger voters: 60% of respondents under 30 would vote against membership, compared with only 19% in favour.

Political camps harden

Søreide’s call to revisit the issue is not accidental. Her Conservative Party has consistently backed EU membership.

She argues that, in an era of wars and growing global threats, the arm’s-length relationship between Oslo and Brussels no longer matches the scale of the challenges.

“In my view, and in the view of my party, it would be most beneficial for us to become full members of the EU,” she said, calling for a constructive discussion based on what the EU is today rather than what it was in 1994.

The ruling Labour Party is also formally supportive of membership in its programme, as is the Green Party, which strengthened its position in the 2025 parliamentary election and is strongly aligned with the EU’s climate agenda.

The clearest opponent remains the Centre Party, which successfully led the anti-membership campaigns in both 1972 and 1994.

Its leader, Trygve Slagsvold Vedum, warns that joining the EU would cost Norway control over critical resources and damage its agricultural sector.

Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre, despite support for Europe-wide security coordination, has resisted reopening the debate, arguing that it would only deepen social divisions.

“In these turbulent times, I would rather preserve Norway’s unity than drag us into a new round of disputes between ‘yes’ and ‘no’,” he said.

What could force the issue

Several external developments could bring the question forward much sooner than Oslo expects.

One is Iceland’s referendum on 29 August. If supporters of reopening EU accession talks prevail, Norway may face the uncomfortable prospect of strategic isolation in the Arctic.

Iceland’s renewed EU ambitions: referendum on the horizon amid historical hurdles

Another is Russia’s economic – and potentially broader, interest in Svalbard.

Where Oslo once felt able to rely on NATO guarantees, Trump has now made clear that the U.S. may no longer automatically guarantee assistance to European allies. That message is being closely studied both in the Kremlin and in Norway.

As one unnamed Norwegian official told Politico: “Now is not the best time to remain alone. Trump changes everything.”

Brussels, meanwhile, is openly receptive.

EU enlargement commissioner Marta Kos has said Norway’s accession would be a sovereign political choice, but one that could move quickly given the country’s already deep legal alignment with EU rules through the European Economic Area.

Asked for the strongest argument in favour of membership, she gave a direct answer: security.

That is increasingly the core of the Norwegian debate.

For the first time in decades, EU membership is no longer a purely hypothetical issue. Just as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine triggered NATO enlargement through Finland and Sweden, Trump’s risk-heavy approach to allies may now be laying the groundwork for a new phase of EU expansion.

For Norway, the technical barriers are minimal. The obstacles are overwhelmingly political.

The original article in Ukrainian published by EUalive’s partner European Pravda can be found here.

Caption: Norway’s Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Store (R) and EU Council President Antonio Costa (L) hold a press conference after their meeting at the government’s representative facilities in Oslo, Norway, 19 February 2026. EPA/ANNIKA BYRDE