EditTrump says talks with Cuba ongoing, U.S. action possible after Iran
Cuba's ability to endure economic hardship draws from a history of resilience, most notably during the "Special Period" following the 1991 collapse of the USSR
U.S. President Donald Trump said on Monday that talks with Cuba are advancing and that a deal could be reached soon, though he emphasized that resolving issues with Iran remains his administration’s top priority.
The comments come as Cuba grapples with its most severe economic downturn in decades, fuelling speculation about possible shifts in longstanding U.S.-Cuba relations.
“Cuba also wants to make a deal, and I think we will pretty soon either make a deal or do whatever we have to do,” Trump told reporters at the White House, adding that Iran would be addressed first. He alluded to a “friendly takeover” of the island nation, though he noted it might not be so friendly, without providing further details.
Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel confirmed the ongoing discussions in a statement, describing them as a move toward “dialogue on bilateral differences” rather than confrontation. The talks mark a potential thaw after years of heightened tensions, including tightened U.S. sanctions under Trump’s second term that have exacerbated Cuba’s economic woes.
The negotiations are rooted in persistent disputes over sanctions, migration flows, and security concerns. U.S. officials have demanded concessions from Havana, including reforms to its political system, while Cuba has insisted on mutual respect for its sovereignty and the lifting of the decades-old embargo. Sources familiar with the matter say the discussions, which began informally late last year, have gained urgency amid Cuba’s fuel crisis and broader humanitarian strains.
Cuba’s economic meltdown: a crisis deeper than the 1990s
Cuba’s economy is in freefall, battered by a combination of external sanctions and internal challenges, with experts warning of a potential humanitarian catastrophe if conditions do not improve. The island’s acute fuel shortages have led to widespread blackouts, halted public transportation, and disruptions to essential services, reminiscent of – but potentially surpassing – the hardships of the post-Soviet era.
The crisis intensified in early 2026 following U.S. military interventions in Venezuela, a key ally and oil supplier to Cuba. The abduction of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and the seizure of oil shipments cut off up to 60% of Cuba’s fuel imports, leaving refineries idle and power plants struggling. A January executive order from Trump labelled Cuba a national security threat, imposing tariffs on nations supplying oil to the island and effectively blocking imports from Mexico and Russia.
Daily life has ground to a halt for many Cubans. Rolling blackouts last for hours or even days, forcing state companies to adopt four-day workweeks and schools to shorten hours. Hospitals report equipment failures, and food distribution has been hampered, with rationing extended to basics like rice and beans. Inflation has soared, with average monthly state salaries hovering around 6,500 Cuban pesos – equivalent to about $13 at black-market exchange rates – while a carton of eggs can cost over 3,000 pesos.
Cuba’s gross domestic product contracted by 4% in the first nine months of 2025, and the U.S. embargo has inflicted cumulative losses exceeding $170 billion, including nearly $8 billion in the year ending February 2025. Analysts describe the situation as “zero hour,” with fuel reserves nearing depletion and risks to health, food security, and water systems disproportionately affecting the elderly and children, according to United Nations reports.
Internal factors have compounded the external pressures. Government mismanagement, corruption, and a slow embrace of private-sector reforms have eroded the social safety net, prompting over a million Cubans – more than 10% of the population – to emigrate in recent years. Díaz-Canel has urged “urgent transformations” to the economic model, but the government’s resistance to U.S.-demanded political changes suggests the hardship may persist.
Echoes of the past: resilience forged in the ‘Special Period’
Cuba’s ability to endure such crises draws from a history of resilience, most notably during the “Special Period” following the 1991 collapse of the Soviet Union, its primary benefactor. That era saw GDP shrink by 35%, oil imports plummet to 10% of prior levels, and trade volumes drop by over 80%, leading to acute shortages of food, fuel, and industrial inputs.
The government implemented austerity measures, including rationing, suspension of public transport, and temporary school closures, while promoting self-sufficiency through urban farming, bicycle adoption, and grassroots innovation. Tourism emerged as a lifeline, attracting foreign investment and hard currency, while the regime preserved core socialist elements like centralized planning and universal healthcare.
This survival defied expectations of regime collapse, bolstered by ideological loyalty, public solidarity, and a pragmatic foreign policy that avoided antagonizing potential partners. Unlike other Eastern Bloc nations, Cuba rejected wholesale capitalist reforms, emerging with a hybrid economy that balanced global pressures against non-capitalist ideals.
Today’s challenges test this resilience anew, with compounded factors like climate impacts and demographic shifts straining the system further. Yet, as in the past, Cuba’s history of adaptation amid isolation offers a blueprint for endurance, even as the outcome of U.S. talks remains uncertain.
With Reuters, with additional content by EUalive
Caption: A yound woman walks down a street with the traffic lights turned off in Havana, Cuba, 13 March 2026. Cuban President Miguel Diaz-Canel announced an emergency plan at a press conference, saying the island had not received fuel imports over the past three months and acknowledging the crisis. EPA/ERNESTO MASTRASCUSA
Updated: March 16, 2026 - 05:37
