Trump anticipates four-week Iran campaign as Tehran rebuilds leadership after Khamenei killing

U.S. President Donald Trump expects combat operations against Iran to last roughly four weeks, even as the Islamic Republic grapples with a leadership vacuum following the assassination of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and unleashes retaliatory strikes on Gulf states that have already disrupted shipping and sent oil prices surging.

In comments to the Daily Mail published on Sunday, Trump framed the campaign as a deliberate timeline. “It’s always been a four-week process. We figured it will be four weeks or so. It’s always been about a four-week process so – as strong as it is, it’s a big country, it’ll take four weeks – or less,” he said.

He has repeatedly vowed that strikes will continue “until all our objectives are achieved,” citing the need to dismantle Iran’s nuclear and missile programs and neutralize threats to the United States and its allies.

The operation, launched jointly with Israel on Saturday, struck more than 1,000 targets and killed Khamenei while he met with his inner circle. Iranian state media confirmed the 86-year-old leader’s death, plunging the country into its gravest crisis since the 1979 revolution. U.S. officials have expressed scepticism that the strikes will produce swift regime change, despite Trump’s calls for Iranians to “take back” their country.

Khamenei killed in US-Israeli strikes on Iran; Tehran launches retaliation as region braces for escalation

Iran’s response has been swift and geographically broad. Missiles rained on Israel, killing civilians and prompting Israeli emergency teams to search rubble in Tel Aviv and Jerusalem. More dramatically, Iranian forces targeted Gulf Arab states, with witnesses reporting loud blasts over Dubai and Doha for a second consecutive day. Missile debris sparked a fire at Dubai’s Jebel Ali port, one of the world’s busiest container hubs, while other strikes damaged infrastructure in the UAE. Gulf businesses reported widespread shutdowns of airports and ports – the most severe disruption since the COVID-19 pandemic.

The fallout now threatens global energy markets. The Strait of Hormuz, through which more than 20% of the world’s seaborne oil passes, has effectively been choked. Iranian Revolutionary Guards broadcast warnings that “no ship is allowed to pass,” prompting tanker owners, oil majors and traders to suspend crude, fuel and LNG shipments. Russia’s foreign ministry warned Sunday of “significant disbalances” on global oil and gas markets if the closure persists. Oil prices jumped sharply, Asian airline shares tumbled on higher fuel costs and travel chaos, and analysts predicted elevated crude prices for days. U.S. gasoline prices are expected to rise as well.

Inside Iran, the power structure is being hastily revamped. A temporary three-person council has taken charge until the Assembly of Experts selects a new supreme leader. Veteran politician Ali Larijani, a pragmatist and former nuclear negotiator who was reappointed last year as Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, has emerged as a central power broker capable of bridging clerical, security and factional interests. Regional analysts caution against expecting rapid collapse; Iran’s system was designed to survive the loss of any single figure.

Yet the human and political cost is mounting. The Pentagon told Congress there was no intelligence indicating Iran planned a first strike on U.S. forces, undercutting one public justification for the operation. On Sunday the U.S. military announced its first casualties: three service members killed in Iran-related operations, with Trump warning of more losses ahead and pledging to avenge them. A new poll signalled political headwinds for the administration at home.

The conflict is already widening. Israel struck Hezbollah targets in Beirut’s southern suburbs after the Iran-backed group fired missiles and drones in retaliation for Khamenei’s death. Protests erupted across the region, turning deadly in Pakistan where 23 people were killed, including 10 in clashes at a U.S. consulate. Iranians in Europe celebrated the supreme leader’s demise while mourners filled Tehran’s streets.

Investors are bracing for deeper backlash. Stocks skidded, the euro sagged against a stronger dollar, and gold rose as safe-haven demand spiked. Shipping through Hormuz remains the focal point: Japanese firms have halted operations, and Platts is reviewing its Middle East crude pricing benchmarks amid the uncertainty.

U.S. lawmakers from both parties said Sunday that the Trump administration has yet to articulate a clear “day-after” plan for Iran. Democrats pressed for details on any post-strike government; Republicans argued the Iranian people must decide their future. Trump has offered no specifics beyond hoping for an internal uprising.

For now, the four-week horizon Trump outlined appears increasingly optimistic to some observers. With Iranian proxies active, oil chokepoints under threat, and Tehran’s leadership in flux, the risk of major destabilization across the Middle East – and beyond – is rising by the hour. Oil and gas majors are watching Hormuz flows anxiously; global markets are pricing in prolonged volatility.

European reactions

In Europe, reactions have been marked by a blend of caution, calls for de-escalation, and pragmatic support for defending regional allies amid Iran’s retaliatory strikes on Gulf states. While the broader European Union, led by foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas, has urged “maximum restraint,” protection of civilians, and respect for international law following an emergency meeting of foreign ministers, key Western European powers have taken a firmer stance. France, Germany, and the United Kingdom issued a joint statement declaring they stand ready to defend their interests and those of Gulf allies, potentially through “necessary and proportionate defensive action” to neutralize Iran’s capability to launch such attacks at the source.

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer explicitly authorized the use of UK military bases for limited U.S.-led defensive strikes targeting Iranian missile storage depots and launchers, framing the move as essential to collective self-defence, protecting British lives, and preventing further indiscriminate fire across the region. French President Emmanuel Macron convened an emergency defence council meeting and has emphasized enhancing France’s defensive posture in the Middle East, while broader EU figures like European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen highlighted the risks of instability but also noted renewed hope for Iran’s people post-Khamenei.

With Reuters, edited by g.g.

Caption: People wave flags during a march and rally in support of regime change in Iran outside the federal building in Westwood in Los Angeles, California, USA, 01 March 2026. Iran officially confirmed on 01 March that Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was killed in a joint US-Israeli military operation conducted on 28 February 2026. EPA/TED SOQU