Top expert: Bulgaria should lead the European coalition against Russian hybrid threats

The latest explosion at a Bulgarian arms factory owned by private defence company EMCO has prompted calls for Bulgaria to lead efforts within the EU and NATO to coordinate the fight against Russian hybrid threats and terrorist acts.

The explosion at the EMCO arms manufacturer’s storage facility near the mountain town of Tryavna on 10 August has raised fresh concerns over possible sabotage, with the company pointing to a history of similar incidents at Bulgarian defence plants and previous allegations of Russian involvement.

Explosion at Bulgarian arms plant revives Russian sabotage concerns

“Bulgaria has been severely affected by this hybrid war and these terrorist acts. That is why Sofia should push for international cooperation, and our international partners in NATO and EU should respond,” former Bulgarian defence minister Boyko Noev told EUalive.

Russian sabotage is a Europe-wide threat, not a problem confined to Bulgaria. More than 170 attacks and hybrid operations have been reported across the EU, including in Germany, Poland, the Czech Republic and other member states.

“A coalition of countries that have been affected is emerging in Europe. Bulgaria should become part of this coalition because it has enormous experience. Not only as a country that has been targeted, but also as a country that has accumulated expertise. There is no other way to protect our country,” Noev said.

Noev is a Bulgarian diplomat and national security expert who has served twice as defence minister. He has also been deputy defence minister and head of Bulgaria’s Permanent Mission to NATO in Brussels, as well as ambassador to Belgium and Luxembourg. He is widely seen as a top expert working on European security, NATO, the OSCE and arms control.

Wide-spread attacks

In his interview with EUalive, Noev recalled that virtually all Bulgarian arms manufacturers, both private and state-owned, have been targeted by acts of sabotage and explosions over the past 15 years.

“In some cases, particularly those concentrated between 2011 and 2016, the perpetrators of these terrorist acts were clearly identified because those involved, agents of GRU Unit 29155, had carried out similar operations in other countries,” Noev said.

The former defence minister added that Russian agents from the unit were involved in the poisoning of Sergei Skripal, the 2014 explosions at Czech ammunition depots, and in an act of sabotage at a Bulgarian arms factory in Lovni Dol, Arsenal and VMZ Sopot arms factories and more.

They were also involved in the attempted poisoning and murder of three Bulgarian citizens, including EMCO owner Emilian Gebrev, in a case that became known as the “Bulgarian Novichok” affair.

“The involvement of these Russian agents was established by British and Czech investigators. It was also established by the Bulgarian prosecution service under external pressure, which forced it to bring to light the evidence and testimony that had been accumulated,” Noev said.

He argues that Bulgaria’s judicial system, and the prosecution service in particular, is deeply affected by corruption and Russian influence, making cooperation with and pressure from partner intelligence services particularly important.

“Under the governments of Boyko Borissov and Delyan Peevski (leaders of GERB and DPS political parties), the Bulgarian prosecution service and the State Agency for National Security [DANS] did everything possible to cover up the involvement of Russian intelligence services in these terrorist acts,” Noev said.

Five years ago, the Bulgarian prosecution service showed signs that it intended to launch an in absentia criminal trial against six GRU agents identified as perpetrators of the sabotage against Bulgarian arms factories. Shortly afterwards, activity in the case was halted and no trial has taken place to date.

“Why did this happen? It happened because of deep-rooted corruption in Bulgaria’s justice system, particularly in the prosecution service, and because of its dependence on Russian and other foreign interests. One of the prosecutors investigating the poisoning of Emilian Gebrev had portraits of Putin and Stalin on his Facebook page and in his office,” Noev recalled.

According to Noev, the evidence clearly points towards the possibility that the latest explosions in Bulgaria were also acts of terrorism.

“I am not a bomb disposal expert or a chemist, but there is no case in which newly manufactured finished products, shells, simply explode by themselves. Something caused it, something or someone. In some previous cases, the prosecution itself identified Russian intelligence agents as suspects. There is a well-known saying: if something looks like a duck, quacks like a duck and walks like a duck, it is most likely a duck,” he said.

Underestimating the risks

“Two or three years ago, I spoke to a former colleague of mine who was defence minister. I asked him what we were doing to protect our airspace because the main external kinetic threat to Bulgaria could come from the east, particularly from drones. He told me: ‘Don’t worry, NATO is protecting us,’” Noev said.

He argues that the same lack of preparedness is visible today, as drones linked to Russia’s war in Ukraine are beginning to fall on Bulgarian territory.

“Bulgaria has systematically underestimated the danger since the annexation of Crimea and the start of the war. Now drones are already falling very close to and on our territory, while Bulgaria is not prepared to defend its airspace below 3,000 metres. Efforts are currently under way to address this shortcoming, and it is commendable that the problem is finally being taken seriously,” he added.

Bulgaria has companies producing drones and counter-drone systems, while a coalition of willing countries is also emerging in Europe to coordinate action on missile and counter-drone defence.

“Bulgaria must urgently join. That is where the technology, expertise and Ukrainian experience are,” Noev added.

Caption: On 10 August, an incident occurred in an ammunition warehouse of EMCO near the Gabrovo village of Belitsa, after which a fire broke out. The signal for the explosion was received shortly before 11 a.m. Teams of the police, fire department, gendarmerie and emergency services were immediately sent to the scene. According to authorities, no people were injured. BGNES