EditTomahawk blackmail: how Trump and Zelenskyy use pressure to draw Putin to the table
Behind the high-stakes Washington talks and the possible Budapest summit lies a strategy of pressure, persuasion, and political risk for all involved
Public discussions about supplying Ukraine with Tomahawk cruise missiles have become a powerful form of diplomatic pressure, writes Sergiy Sydorenko, chief editor of EUalive’s partner European Pravda.
Two and a half hours of talks, two of them behind closed doors, marked the long-anticipated meeting between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and U.S. President Donald Trump in Washington. Compliments, symbolic gestures, and careful balancing dominated the atmosphere – all aimed at achieving what Kyiv had firmly ruled out just a year ago: a ceasefire along the front line with Russia, even without preconditions.
The immediate tactical goal, shared by Washington and Kyiv, is to push Vladimir Putin to the negotiating table. The broader objective is to compel the Kremlin to accept an unconditional truce – effectively freezing the war. A year ago, this would have been politically unthinkable in Ukraine. Back then, it was Moscow seeking talks with the U.S., while Kyiv rejected any notion of negotiations “about Ukraine without Ukraine.”
Now, circumstances have changed dramatically – on the battlefield, in Ukraine’s domestic landscape, and across global politics. Trump’s initiative to host a potential summit with Putin in Hungary underscores this shift and the emerging role of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán as an intermediary between Washington and Moscow.
The Tomahawk threat
Public discussions about supplying Ukraine with Tomahawk cruise missiles have become a powerful form of diplomatic pressure. Although it is widely believed that Washington never truly considered providing these long-range weapons, merely talking about them has rattled Moscow.
The missiles – capable of striking targets up to 2,500 kilometres away – are iconic symbols of American military power. When Trump hinted that he might deliver them to Ukraine, Kyiv seized the opportunity, interpreting it as a revolutionary signal. For Trump, however, it was a bargaining tool – leverage both to intimidate Putin and to extract concessions from Zelenskyy.
At one point, Trump even claimed he had directly asked Putin if he objected to the idea of the U.S. giving “a few thousand Tomahawks” to Ukraine. “He didn’t like that idea,” Trump reportedly said. Later, he clarified that the missiles were needed “for America,” suggesting no real transfer would occur.
Yet the tactic worked. Russian officials, from Dmitry Medvedev to Sergey Lavrov, publicly denounced the idea, revealing how sensitive the topic was in Moscow. Even if Ukraine could not deploy the sea-based Tomahawks in practice, the very mention of them fuelled anxiety in the Kremlin. Zelenskyy capitalised on this pressure, even proposing at the White House a swap – Ukrainian drone technology in exchange for the missiles.
Trump may approve Tomahawks for Ukraine if Russia continues war
The Budapest factor
Hungary’s unexpected emergence as the possible venue for a Trump-Putin summit carries both risks and opportunities for Ukraine. The idea reportedly came from Trump himself, who described Hungary as a “safe country.” He did not mean crime rates or political stability – “safe” referred to one man: Vladimir Putin.
With an arrest warrant issued by the International Criminal Court, Putin can travel only to countries where he is confident he will not be detained. Orbán’s Hungary, in the process of withdrawing from the ICC and openly defying EU policy, provides that guarantee. For the Kremlin, Budapest is as secure as Ulaanbaatar, where Putin visited earlier this year under similar circumstances.
For Orbán, however, the stakes are domestic. Facing an uphill parliamentary election against opposition challenger Péter Magyar, the Hungarian leader is eager to cast himself as a global peacemaker. Hosting a “peace summit” with Trump and possibly Putin could serve as the political miracle he needs. Trump’s visit alone would boost his image at home; orchestrating even symbolic progress on Ukraine could make him appear indispensable.
But the gamble cuts both ways. Should Putin decline the invitation, Orbán’s credibility could collapse – exposing the limits of his influence and damaging his electoral prospects. For this reason, the Kremlin may feel compelled to play along, at least symbolically, to help its most reliable ally within the EU retain power.
Skepticism and strategy
Whether the Budapest meeting will materialise remains unclear and its results are even more uncertain. The previous Trump-Putin encounter in Alaska, held in a narrow circle, ended in failure. Putin reportedly lectured Trump on medieval Slavic history, prompting visible frustration from the U.S. president, who ultimately cancelled their planned joint dinner.
Trump appears aware of the risk of being deceived again. According to sources cited by “Financial Times”, he now suspects that Putin is simply “buying time.” If so, the Hungarian summit could become another exercise in delay rather than diplomacy.
Still, the dynamic is shifting. If Trump recognises the futility of endless talks and perceives Putin’s tactics clearly, Washington’s strategy may evolve — combining the threat of escalation with limited openings for dialogue. Even a symbolic meeting in Budapest could thus serve as one more calculated step in the larger game of pressure and perception.
For Kyiv, keeping that pressure alive – through the rhetoric of “Tomahawks,” long-range strikes, and international engagement, remains vital. As Zelenskyy’s advisers admit, miracles are rare in diplomacy, especially when dealing with leaders as unpredictable as Trump and Putin. But even a small step forward could shape the conditions for the next phase of negotiations, or the next standoff.
Adapted from an article by Serhiy Sydorenko for EUalive’s partner “European Pravda”. The original article in Ukrainian can be found here.
Updated: October 20, 2025 - 05:49
