EditThink tank: The Council should set the objective of Montenegro’s accession by 2029
Such a move would make enlargement credible and prove that the EU can match its words with action amid geopolitical uncertainty
Montenegro’s accession to the European Union represents a unique opportunity for the bloc to demonstrate its ability to deliver enlargement in practice, not just in principle, writes Corina Stratulat, Associate Director of the European Policy Centre (EPC), a Brussels think tank.
She argues that bringing the small Western Balkan country into the EU by 2029 would show that the Union can move beyond caution and honour its long-standing commitments at a time when its global credibility is at stake. Below is a summary of her policy paper.
European integration has always advanced through uncertainty. From the creation of the Single Market to successive rounds of enlargement, progress has required political imagination and the courage to act before all conditions were ideal. Today, in an age marked by war on Europe’s borders, democratic erosion and external pressures, the EU once again faces a test of will rather than of technical capacity.
Montenegro: the frontrunner
Montenegro remains the most advanced EU candidate. Since opening negotiations in 2012, it has completed all 33 chapters and provisionally closed seven. The European Commission’s 2024 assessment confirmed that Montenegro met key rule-of-law benchmarks under Chapters 23 and 24 – the first candidate to do so. The government has since adopted wide-ranging judicial and anti-corruption reforms, including amendments to laws on elections, the judiciary and media freedom.
Economically, Montenegro outperforms most of its Western Balkan neighbours. Growth remains stable, inflation is easing, and public debt is declining. The use of the euro as legal tender supports monetary stability, while 60% of its electricity comes from renewables – the highest share in the region. Public backing for EU membership consistently stands around 70-75%, providing a rare consensus across political lines.
Yet persistent challenges remain. Judicial independence is still fragile, anti-corruption results are uneven, and politicisation continues to affect public administration. Frequent government changes have hampered institutional continuity. Still, the formation of a stable parliamentary majority in 2023 has brought renewed predictability. As a NATO member fully aligned with the EU’s foreign and security policy, Montenegro also demonstrates strategic reliability.
Enlargement fatigue in Brussels
Despite Montenegro’s progress, enlargement in Brussels remains trapped in what many describe as “procedural management and political caution”. The revised enlargement methodology, intended to make the process more credible, has instead entrenched incrementalism. Decisions still require unanimity among member states, leaving the pace of progress subject to internal EU politics rather than candidate performance.
The debate on EU internal reform – covering voting procedures, budgetary rules and institutional balance – has also slowed momentum. Some member states insist that enlargement cannot advance without internal restructuring; others argue the two should proceed in parallel. As these divisions persist, the Union risks undermining its own credibility by delaying decisions it once described as a “moral, political and geostrategic imperative”.
Montenegro’s accession could break this stalemate. With a population of just 600,000 and a GDP of €5.8 billion, the country would pose no fiscal or institutional burden to the EU. Its integration would require only minor adjustments – an additional Commissioner, a few parliamentary seats and a place at the Council table. What is needed is political resolve, not institutional overhaul.
A strategic win within reach
The Council should therefore set a time-bound political objective: Montenegro’s accession by 2029, formally endorsed at the highest level. This would reaffirm that the EU honours its promises. For the Western Balkans, it would restore faith in the enlargement process; for Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia, it would prove that membership remains attainable. Success would also revitalise public support for the European project, showing that reform and patience yield results.
To make this timeline feasible, the Council should establish a working group to prepare Montenegro’s Accession Treaty before the end of 2025. Early engagement with national parliaments and citizens across member states will be crucial, as some may require referenda to ratify the new accession. A confidence clause ensuring that Montenegro will not obstruct future accessions in its region could further ease political concerns.
At the same time, the EU should integrate enlargement into its broader institutional reflection. Admitting Montenegro would not lower standards but modernise how they are applied—replacing the binary “inside/outside” logic with continuous post-accession monitoring and accountability. This would show that the EU can grow while protecting its democratic foundations.
Leadership through delivery
Montenegro’s accession will not transform the Union overnight, but it would send a clear signal that the EU can act decisively even in uncertain times. It would honour a two-decade-old promise made in Thessaloniki in 2003 and prove that enlargement remains Europe’s most effective tool for shaping its neighbourhood.
Ultimately, the issue is less about Montenegro than about Europe itself. By choosing courage over caution, the EU can demonstrate that leadership is not proclaimed but earned through delivery. Montenegro’s accession would thus mark not only the success of one candidate but the renewal of the Union’s capacity to lead by example.
Caption: Montenegro’s Prime Minister Milojko Spajic (R) and EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen (L) shake hands at the ‘Smart Growth, Green Future: Acceleration of Investments in Montenegro’ conference in Lustica, Montenegro, 14 October 2025. Von der Leyen is in Montenegro to attend the conference as part of her tour of Western Balkan countries. EPA/BORIS PEJOVIC
Updated: October 27, 2025 - 09:52
