Think tank seeks ‘better narrative’ for EU enlargement

Could the ‘transactional approach’ characteristic of Donald Trump be used for selling to the EU public opinion the idea that the EU accession will bring new defence capabilities and economic security in the form of access to critical raw materials? MEPs appeared to reject the idea.

Eliamep, the Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy presented on Wednesday in the European Parliament its project “ThinkNea – New narratives of EU integration”, aiming to reinvigorate the EU’s engagement with the Western Balkans. The event was hosted by the group of Socialists and Democrats (S&D).

As Ioannis Armakolas, head of Eliamep explained, EU enlargement was still seen under old stereotypes according to which older EU members were giving a chance to aspirant countries to get access to a zone of prosperity. Ana Krstinovska, senior researcher at Eliamep, said this was precisely the reason why their latest research focused instead of what accession countries are bringing to the EU.

Putting forward the Western Balkans’ contribution could improve support for enlargement, Krstinovka argued.

She presented a paper based on a larger report focusing on the contribution of candidate countries from the Western Balkans in the field of defence and economic security. Among the examples she provided is a company in Bosnia and Herzegovina producing 500,000 artillery shells of 155 mm per year, with plans to scale to 1 million with U.S. investment. Other examples focused on the Western Balkans possessing critical and strategic raw materials such as copper, bauxite, nickel, antimonium, magnesium, rare earths, and Europe’s second-largest lithium deposit.

As outlined in the ELIAMEP THINK-NEA report, the region’s proximity to the EU, accession aspirations, and historical mining expertise position it as a strategic diversification hub from China-dominated supplies—aligning with the EU’s Critical Raw Materials Act (CRMA) for secure, sustainable sourcing.

Serbia leads with Europe’s largest copper production (via China’s Zijin at Bor, yielding €4.7B in ores 2022–2024) and the world’s 10th-largest lithium deposit at Jadar (135.7Mt, potentially 60,000 t/year output), revived as an EU strategic project in 2025 despite protests over water risks. Nickel and antimony add value, but low royalties (5%) and pollution hinder processing gains.

Albania’s chromium (global 11th) and nickel (~300Mt) fuel €80M copper exports, while bauxite underpins €155M aluminum to the EU (70% share). Bosnia and Herzegovina boasts 700,000 t/year bauxite at Milići and untapped lithium (1.5Mt), exporting €1.8B processed aluminum (85% to EU, 16% of bloc imports). Kosovo’s €13B Trepça complex (lead, zinc, silver) and nickel-cobalt sites promise 60-year viability, though pollution legacies loom. Montenegro’s 40–130Mt bauxite could revive a pre-1990s value chain (50% GDP then), exporting €46M ores. North Macedonia’s antimony at Krstov Dol eyes 2027 production, alongside €209M copper exports.

The report recognises that a big portion of the Western Balkans exports of raw materials go to China, not Europe. The recommendation is that properly managed industrial and enlargement policies could realign value chains across Europe, strategically connecting the Western Balkans to EU investors and clients.

MEP Sven Mikser (S&D, Estonia) warned against what he called a “transactional” approach to EU enlargement, akin to Trump’s interest in Greenland’s natural resources potential. He insisted that EU enlargement should be firmly anchored in sharing common values.

Mikser also warned that given the interest from autocratic geopolitical powers in the region, if the trespective countries don’t reform, the EU risk to lose them to the profit of global competitors.

MEP Thuis Reuten (S&D, Netherlands), said the resources of the Western Balkans were going to China, because this country offered “the whole thing”, including suitcases full of dollars. He also argued that the EU should be aware that “others would like to see us fail”.

MEP Kathleen Van Brempt (S&D, Belgium) mentioned the lithium mining project in Serbia as not exactly a good example, although the investor is from Germany. Indeed, the project is plagued with protests mostly over environmental concerns.

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Ana Krstinovska replied that the idea behind the project was “not to focus too much on lithium, in order not to stain the rest”, and instead, focus on projects at an advanced stage of implementation. She said that there were success stories in Bosnia and Herzegovina and in North Macedonia the EU could learn from.

More broadly, she said that overall in the region, there was no support for new mining projects.

Krstinovska also made the effort to dispel the impression that the report promoted a “transactional approach”. Clusters’ fundamentals are a precondition, she insisted.

Caption: From left to right: Thuis Reuten, Ioannis Armakolas, Kathleen Van Brempt, Ana Krstinovska, Sven Mikser [photo Georgi Gotev]