The “Turnberry Accord”: probably as good as it gets and better than the alternative

While the details have still to be fleshed out – and the devil is always in the details – the broad accord between President Trump and President von der Leyen at Trump Turnberry, the “Turnberry Accord,” is better than the alternative, an extended brawl between the EU and the US.

The deal, which will see a 15% tariff on most EU exports to the US, will be portrayed by some as a setback for the EU: the UK ‘landed’ a 10% tariff deal and at one point Brussels optimists hoped to persuade the Trump administration to settle for a zero-zero tariff regime.

The 15% rate is the same as that announced in the US – Japan deal last week, below the 19% rate in the US-Indonesia deal announced days earlier and half the 30% rate that President Trump threatened in his letter of 11 July to President von der Leyen. The fact that the 15% rate will apply to EU car exports to the US, a very significant cut from the 25% rate that the US currently charges, will be seen as a major concession.

The 15% rate will not apply to EU steel and aluminium exports which are currently taxed at 50%. President Trump explained that steel and aluminium were not part of Sunday’s agreement because those are a “worldwide thing that stays the way it is.”

There was some confusion as to the position of pharmaceuticals. Before the talks got underway at Turnberry, President Trump suggested pharmaceuticals, which were the largest good imported into the US in 2024 from the EU, are not part of the agreement. After the meeting President von der Leyen said “We have stabilised on a single 15% tariff rate for the vast majority of EU exports. This rate applies across most sectors, including cars, semiconductors, pharmaceuticals”.

Before departing from Scotland the Commission President clarified the position saying “ it is agreed we have 15% on pharmaceuticals” but added “ whatever the decisions later on is (depends on the) President of the United States”, an explanation that aligns with the view from the US that President Trump while agitated by the level of pharmaceutical imports is anxious to ‘kick the can down the road” on the issue until after the 2026 US midterm elections.

It will be interesting to read the explanation from the White House when and if one becomes available.

In addition to the 15% tariff rate the EU has agreed to purchase $750 billion (around € 640 bn) of American energy and to buy military equipment from the US. Given that the EU has been actively focused on its dependence on energy imports from Russia, the agreement to source more energy and in particular more gas from the US is an inevitability rather than a concession. The commitment to source more military equipment for US manufacturers is again unsurprising. Neither of these commitments impose any additional burden on the EU but both give President Trump important boasting rights.

Another provision in the agreement, that Europe will commit to increase its investment in the US by more than $ 600 billion above its current levels provides President Trump with another boasting right. Given its very open nature the commitment does not seem to impose any additional onerous requirement on the EU.

While the reports from Sunday’s meeting at Turnberry contains a reference to “no tariffs would be imposed on some goods” – a reference that needs some elaboration there is one noteworthy absence. In his letter of 11 July Trump said that “the European Union will allow complete open Market Access to the United States”. As mentioned previously this stipulation that, if applied fully, would require the EU to lift rules that prohibit hormone treated beef, chlorinated chicken and genetically modified crops requirements that could cause problems for the EU negotiators.

Responding to Trump’s ‘gun to the head’ trade tactics

It’s important to see more details of the Turnberry discussions emerge, and whether the omission of “the open Market Access” is something significant, or a minor edit to the text.

Overall, the “Preliminary Trade Deal” sealed with the handshake at Turnberry on Sunday afternoon is a better result than many anticipated. President Trump labelled the agreement, rather modestly, a good deal for everybody”. President von der Leyen described it as “a big deal, a huge deal” that would bring “stability” and “predictability” to both sides.

Predictability is not a word often used in discussions when it comes to the Trump administration. Predictability in EU-US trade would be a very big win from Turnberry, a club which over the years has seen some historic victories in the world of golf.

EUalive’s columnist Dick Roche is a former Irish Minister of State for European Affairs. His columns can be found here.

Caption: On 26 and 27 July 2025, Ursula von der Leyen, president of the European Commission, was in Scotland, upon invitation of Donald Trump, President of the United States, to discuss transatlantic trade relations. [Europe by Satellite]