The sad truth behind Trump’s “Urbi and Orbi” letter

The “Urbi and Orbi” letter by Trump (actually a post in his Truth Social platform intituled A LETTER SENT BY PRESIDENT DONALD J. TRUMP TO ALL NATO NATIONS AND, THE WORLD) marks the end of his ambition to stop the war in Ukraine which is in his third year after Vladimir Putin invaded the neighbouring country.

This is what he wrote:

“A LETTER SENT BY PRESIDENT DONALD J. TRUMP TO ALL NATO NATIONS AND, THE WORLD: “I am ready to do major Sanctions on Russia when all NATO Nations have agreed, and started, to do the same thing, and when all NATO Nations STOP BUYING OIL FROM RUSSIA. As you know, NATO’S commitment to WIN has been far less than 100%, and the purchase of Russian Oil, by some, has been shocking! It greatly weakens your negotiating position, and bargaining power, over Russia.

Anyway, I am ready to “go” when you are. Just say when? I believe that this, plus NATO, as a group, placing 50% to 100% TARIFFS ON CHINA, to be fully withdrawn after the WAR with Russia and Ukraine is ended, will also be of great help in ENDING this deadly, but RIDICULOUS, WAR. China has a strong control, and even grip, over Russia, and these powerful Tariffs will break that grip. This is not TRUMP’S WAR (it would never have started if I was President!), it is Biden’s and Zelenskyy’s WAR. I am only here to help stop it, and save thousands of Russian and Ukrainian lives (7,118 lives lost last week, alone. CRAZY!). If NATO does as I say, the WAR will end quickly, and all of those lives will be saved! If not, you are just wasting my time, and the time, energy, and money of the United States.”

What does this letter say? First, Trump will not sanction Russia. Which means that the war will continue for an indefinite time. As we have argued previously, a just peace for Ukraine is possible only on the basis on new EU sanctions synchronised with a U.S. effort.

Trump wants the EU to stop buying Russian gas. Even Trump’s Energy Secretary considers that the EU could stop buying Russian gas in the next 6 to 12 months. This means that Trump, who likes to say how much he loathes to see hundreds or thousands young people die every day on the two sides of the front, is not in a hurry to help stop the bloodshed and gives Putin free hand. So much for his Nobel Peace Prize ambitions.

NATO, established in 1949 as a military alliance under the North Atlantic Treaty, is fundamentally a defensive pact focused on collective security against armed aggression, not a trade bloc

Tariffs at 50-100% on Chinese imports – targeting everything from electronics to machinery, where China supplies 20-30% of NATO countries’ goods – would trigger severe backlash.

China, with $500 billion in annual exports to NATO states, would likely retaliate with tariffs on NATO exports (e.g., Boeing aircraft or French wine), rare earth export bans, or dumping cheap goods elsewhere, exacerbating the very economic vulnerabilities Trump aims to exploit in Russia.

Achieving NATO consensus is improbable given internal fractures: While hawks like Poland and the Baltics might back anti-Russia measures, economic powerhouses like Germany and France view China as a $1 trillion+ partner and resist decoupling, as seen in their opposition to U.S. steel tariffs in 2018. Turkey, a key NATO member and third-largest Russian oil buyer, has deepened ties with both Moscow and Beijing via the Belt and Road Initiative, making it a likely veto.

Moreover, alienating China risks pushing it closer to Russia and BRICS (now including Saudi Arabia), undermining U.S. goals in the Indo-Pacific.

In summary, Trump’s conditions are a no-go and only illustrate that he seeks excuses for taking disengaging from his earlier peace efforts. The failure of Trump’s peace efforts was already clear in Alaska, where Putin secured all his objectives while Trump gained nothing in return. And frankly, Trump’s assertion that the conflict is solely Biden’s and Zelenskyy’s war is utterly indefensible; it is unequivocally Putin’s war, yet Trump conspicuously avoids acknowledging this truth.

The pertinent question now is: should Trump withdraw, what options remain for the EU? This, of course, is a rhetorical inquiry.

Caption: Russian President Vladimir Putin (L) and US President Donald Trump attend a joint news conference following their meeting at Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson in Anchorage, Alaska, USA, 15 August 2025. EPA/SERGEY BOBYLEV/SPUTNIK/KREMLIN POOL