The Maia factor: Moldova works to bring democracy and stability to Romania and Europe

Following the election of sovereignist Karol Nawrocki as the new president of Poland last week, Ukraine found itself unexpectedly bordering only eurosceptic countries to the west. With two exceptions: Nicușor Dan’s Romania and Maia Sandu’s Moldova.

The two presidents share more than just a language (Romanian). Both are non-traditional politicians issued from civil society or the academy, and both have the ability to resist foreign pressure and interference: two qualities that resonate deeply with their voters, earning them wide support and appreciation at home and abroad.

Being a neutral state, Moldova is not a member of the Atlantic Alliance. However, should Poland take another path, the Dan-Sandu duo could prove to be of great relevance to the region’s security and play a crucial role in maintaining regional stability and consolidating ties with the EU, Ukraine, and NATO.

Since Maia Sandu’s Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS) came to power in 2021, hybrid threats have been escalating in Moldova, reaching their peak last year when the country held three major elections, including an EU accession referendum. Electoral manipulation taking place ahead of the presidential election in October 2024 was eventually exposed by a few investigative reports, some of which received international recognition. For the first time this year, the European Press Prize for Investigative Journalism was awarded to a Moldovan media outlet. Ziarul de Gardă’s Serving Moscow  carried out during the 2024 presidential election campaign, brought to light how elections were manipulated and people recruited to favour Maia Sandu’s competitor, the pro-Russian Aleksandr Stoianoglo, and the “no” to the EU referendum.

For three months, Mariana Nistor and Natalia Zaharescu infiltrated pro-Russian oligarch Ilan Șor’s network and managed to document the ins and outs of election meddling. Their report identified the cracks of a democracy in danger, sparking widespread civic engagement at the polls, which was crucial to secure the incumbent president’s victory and ensuring that Moldova remained on its European path.

In May 2025, Moldovan voters made the difference again, this time in Romania’s presidential elections. Indeed, the majority of voters holding dual Moldovan-Romanian citizenship and residing in the Republic of Moldova cast their ballots for the pro-European candidate Nicușor Dan in both rounds, reaching 88% in the run-off. This voting pattern contrasted with the broader trend in the Romanian diaspora which favoured sovereignist George Simion by over 55%. Similarly, Maia Sandu’s victory had been supported by 83% of the dual-citizen Moldovans abroad, although she finished second at the national level behind Stoianoglo.

Across the globe, around 2 million Moldovan citizens hold Romanian nationality, which makes them a political treasure for both countries. This also includes individuals with two passports but residing elsewhere. For many, acquiring Romanian – and therefore European – citizenship is the way to a better future. Following Nicușor Dan and Maia Sandu’s electoral victories, the influence of dual citizens is sparking what researcher and author Liliana Corobca, an expert on Romanian exile, calls “the emergence of a new political force”. While not being an official political party yet, it could possibly evolve into one, potentially following the model of the Hungarian minority party in Romania. It would probably be a centre or centre-right party, active in both countries and representing “the interests of dual nationals” looking “to the West with pride and to the East with discernment”.

Part of the credit for shaping the Moldovan (and not only) pro-EU vote in Romania goes to Maia Sandu, who actively encouraged citizens to support Nicușor Dan. With her pragmatic approach – another feature she shares with Dan – and firm dedication to foreign policy, the Moldovan president has become a symbol of hope for her country. Having pursued a political path entirely aimed at achieving European integration, Maia Sandu recently declared that Moldova could even complete the accession process as early as 2027, three years ahead of schedule.

Meanwhile, Moldova and Romania are set to become key actors of the EU enhanced Black Sea strategy recently launched by Kaja Kallas, the High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy. The initiative aims to create a maritime security hub, increasing cooperation on countering hybrid threats and focussing more on the environmental dimension, which has been significantly impacted during the conflict in Ukraine.

At the same time, Moldova will have to “be empowered to make its own choices – free from coercion or manipulation – with the backing of like-minded and respectful partners”, says Nathalie Loiseau, chair of the European Parliament special committee on the European Shield for Democracy. During his June visit to Moldova, Nicușor Dan will be able to reaffirm Romania’s support, as he already did during the B9 summit in Vilnius on June 2. The format gathered NATO’s eastern flank and Nordic countries, with the next summit expected to be held in Bucharest.

While foreign policy remains a priority, Romania’s newly elected president has several domestic challenges to cope with. According to the European Commission’s spring forecasts, in 2025 the budget deficit will reach 8.6%, slightly down as compared to last year, but the highest in the EU. It is the most severe fiscal imbalance since the 2009 crisis. Dan and prime minister-in-waiting Ilie Bolojan aim to bring it down to 7% through cutting public spending, administrative downsizing, and eliminating privileges and bureaucracy. Perhaps even by increasing taxes, if resources are not enough.

For the moment, shrinking the budget’s deficit remains Dan’s priority, taking precedence over forming a new government and assigning roles. An ad hoc commission has been set up, bringing together experts from different political parties. However, talks regarding the future government are underway. Dan hopes to form a pro-European coalition with 4 parties: Union to Save Romania (USR), National Liberal Party (PNL), UDMR and the Social Democratic Party (PSD). The latter, however, has yet to make it clear whether it will be part of it, although it remains open to negotiations. In the past, PSD used to be the target of the former Bucharest’s mayor anti-corruption campaigns, and somewhat still has a grudge against him. But the stakes in Europe are high, and the pro-EU front needs to stay united.

Anita Bernacchia, an Italian-Romanian freelance journalist, contributed this analysis exclusively to EUalive.net.

Caption: Moldovan President Maia Sandu (R) and EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Kaja Kallas (L) after a joint press conference in the presidential palace in Chisinau, Moldova, 24 April 2025. Kallas is on an official visit to Moldova. [EPA-EFE/DUMITRU DORU]

Updated: June 4, 2025 - 13:39