EditThe battle for COP31: Turkey ready to host alone as Australia rejects joint deal
Meanwhile, the UN climate summit COP30 is falling far short of the $1.3 trillion commitment needed for clean-energy transitions
As the COP30 climate summit enters its second week amid tense negotiations on global emissions cuts, a parallel diplomatic showdown is stealing the spotlight: a deadlock between Australia and Turkey over hosting rights for COP31 in 2026.
Turkey announced over the weekend that it is ready to unilaterally host COP31 in 2026 if no agreement is reached on a joint presidency with Australia.
Turkey and Australia remain deadlocked over which country should host COP31. Under UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) rules, the host nation must be selected by consensus among the 198 parties. If neither country withdraws its bid nor accepts a shared presidency, the conference will automatically be held at its default venue: Bonn, Germany, where the UN Climate Change Secretariat is headquartered.
The Turkish source stressed by Anadolu Agency that Ankara is fully prepared to organize the summit independently and would step in immediately if the impasse continues.
The impasse risks derailing both countries’ ambitions and forcing an unprecedented default to Bonn, Germany – a scenario no one wants. “We’re at crunch time,” said one diplomat close to the negotiations, speaking on condition of anonymity. “This distraction is sapping energy from the real work on finance and adaptation, and Brazil’s hosts are growing impatient.”
A bidding war rooted in UN rules
The rivalry traces back to 2022, when both nations submitted bids under the UNFCCC. Hosting rotates among five regional groups, with COP31 falling to the 28-member Western Europe and Others Group (WEOG), which unusually includes both Australia and Turkey. UN protocol demands unanimous consensus for a host, meaning one side must yield, or both lose out.
Australia, long seen as the frontrunner, envisions COP31 as a “Pacific COP” co-hosted with small island states like Palau and Papua New Guinea. The bid aims to amplify voices from nations already battered by rising seas and extreme weather, while showcasing Australia’s pivot to renewable energy exports. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has framed it as a matter of equity: COPs have convened in oil-rich UAE and Egypt, but never in the Pacific, where countries like Tuvalu and Kiribati face literal submersion.
Turkey, meanwhile, pitches Antalya – a Mediterranean hub of tourism and diplomacy, as a bridge between developed and developing worlds. Officials emphasize inclusivity for all vulnerable regions, not just one, proposing special sessions on Pacific issues alongside broader themes like climate finance for the Global South. Ankara highlights its own progress toward net-zero by 2053 and positions the bid as a bulwark against geopolitical fractures.
Initial hopes for a joint presidency emerged during September’s UN General Assembly sidelines, where the two sides explored shared high-level events. But Albanese’s recent letter to President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan nixed the idea, citing UNFCCC rules against dual hosts and fears it would dilute the Pacific agenda. Erdoğan replied last week, reiterating Turkey’s openness to “innovative solutions” like co-leadership to bolster multilateralism, but standing firm on Antalya if needed.
Broader concerns and diplomatic maneuvers
Critics of Turkey’s bid point to its alliances with Russia and Saudi Arabia – nations often accused of stalling fossil fuel phase-outs, as potential liabilities in a summit meant to accelerate transitions. “Turkey’s ties could complicate trust-building,” noted climate analyst David Dutton, a former Australian diplomat.
Yet Turkish Vice President Cevdet Yılmaz, speaking at COP30’s leaders’ summit on 6-7 November (which neither Erdoğan nor Albanese attended), touted his country’s “bridging role between North and South.”
Australia’s Climate and Energy Minister Chris Bowen and Turkey’s Environment Minister Murat Kurum are set to huddle in Belém’s frantic closing days. London has also been tapped as a broker.
Proposed compromises include splitting duties, perhaps Australia handling Pacific sessions, Turkey others – or Turkey taking a supporting role in ancillary events. Pacific leaders have penned pleas to Erdoğan for withdrawal, calling it a “significant act of good faith” that could free Ankara for its 2026 NATO summit hosting.
Germany, home to the UNFCCC secretariat, is vocally opposed to stepping in. Environment State Secretary Jochen Flasbarth told Politico: “We do not want to” host, pleading for Australia and Turkey to “get [it] sorted.” A Bonn fallback would mark the first default in COP history, underscoring the WEOG’s opaque consensus model.
COP30: ambition stalls as fossil-fuel lobbyists swarm
The UN climate summit COP30 (6–21 November 2025) in Belém, Brazil, is falling far short of the host country’s bold promises. The much-touted “From Baku to Belém” roadmap, meant to deliver at least $1.3 trillion annually in climate finance by 2035, was launched with fanfare, yet 12 November high-profile presentation by COP30 President André Correa do Lago left experts deeply worried: no clear commitments, no credible pathway—just warnings that the initiative risks collapsing into a dead end.
The $1.3 trillion is desperately needed for clean-energy transitions, adaptation, loss and damage funds, forest and biodiversity protection, and a just fossil-fuel phase-out in the Global South. Correa do Lago admitted even the lower $300 billion target agreed in Baku remains “under negotiation,” while the route to $1.3 trillion is “still completely open.”
Outside the conference halls, the first week belonged to protesters. Hundreds of Amazonian rubber tappers marched through Belém brandishing poringas – the traditional knives once used to tap latex – now symbols of their fight against rampant deforestation and for livelihoods tied to standing forests.
Inside, a starkly different picture: more than 1,600 fossil-fuel lobbyists – outnumbering every national delegation except Brazil’s, roam the talks. That’s a 12 % jump from COP29 and the highest number ever recorded at a UN climate summit. Over the past five years, 7,000 industry lobbyists have gained access while extreme weather disasters have escalated and oil giants have posted record profits.
As COP30 heads into its decisive second week, the contrast is glaring: ambitious rhetoric and street-level urgency on one side, entrenched fossil-fuel influence and stalled finance negotiations on the other.
Sources: BGNES, Anadolu Agency, Reuters, Politico, press releases from COP30, edited by a.k.
COP30 negotiations hit snags: weaker EU goals and Trump’s absence
Caption: A person in costume dances during the traditional Fossil of the Day award, given by NGO Climate Action, ceremony during the UN COP30 conference at the Hangar Convention Center in Belem, Brazil, 14 November 2025. The award, which symbolically satirizes the world’s leading polluters, was presented to the United States. EPA/ANDRE BORGES
Updated: November 17, 2025 - 13:47
