EditTehran’s turmoil: Turkey advances anti-Kurdish agenda in post-Assad Syria
Iran's shifting sands present Turkey with both a challenge and an opportunity to advance its interests by intensifying pressure on Kurdish autonomy in Syria
As massive anti-government protests grip Iran for the third week, entering their most volatile phase with reports of thousands of deaths and imminent executions, neighboring Turkey finds itself in a precarious position.
Ankara has adopted a cautious stance, emphasizing the need for Iran’s internal stability while warning against foreign meddling – particularly from rivals like Israel and the United States. This approach underscores Turkey’s multifaceted interests in the region, where unrest in Iran could ripple into Syria, exacerbate Kurdish militancy, and disrupt economic ties, all while Turkey maneuvers its own influence in a post-Assad landscape.
The protests, which erupted on 28 December over economic collapse and currency devaluation, have evolved into calls for the downfall of Iran’s clerical regime. Turkish officials have described the
Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, in a recent interview with state broadcaster TRT, accused Israel’s Mossad of exploiting the unrest to destabilize Tehran, claiming that such efforts stem from Israel’s failure to weaken Iran militarily.
“These demonstrations, stemming from genuine reasons and structural problems, are also being manipulated from abroad by Iran’s rivals,” Fidan said, adding that Israel is openly urging Iranians to rise up via social media.
Turkey’s ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) spokesperson Omer Celik echoed this sentiment, stating that Ankara does not wish for “chaos” in Iran and opposes any foreign intervention that could lead to “greater crises” regionally.
Devlet Bahceli, leader of the allied Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), went further, warning that instability in Iran “threatens Turkey and the regional countries,” describing Iran’s territorial integrity as a “matter of life and death” for Turkey.
Analysts note that despite historical rivalries – clashing in Syria, Iraq, and Lebanon – Turkey prioritizes Iran’s stability to prevent border spillover, refugee influxes, and empowered ethnic minorities.
At the heart of Turkey’s concerns lies the Kurdish question, amplified by recent events in Syria. In northeastern Syria’s Qamishli, thousands of Kurds protested on 13 January against violence in Aleppo, where clashes last week displaced over 150,000 and killed dozens, forcing Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) to withdraw from key neighborhoods under a ceasefire.
Protesters displayed banners denouncing Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa and Turkish Foreign Minister Fidan as “killers of the Kurdish people,” reflecting deep-seated grievances over stalled integration deals and fears of broader conflict.
Turkey views the SDF as an extension of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), a designated terrorist group, and has long targeted Kurdish positions in Syria.
Conversely, Turkey stands accused by critics, including Kurdish groups and some analysts, of effectively co-opting or indirectly supporting al-Qaeda-linked fighters – particularly through its longstanding backing of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS, formerly Jabhat al-Nusra) and other jihadist elements in the Syrian opposition – to advance its military campaigns against Kurdish forces like the YPG/SDF in northern Syria, a charge Ankara denies.
Syria Arab Army 👇
Turkey keeps transferring Al-Qaeda fighters, especially Uzbeks and Turkistanis, from all around the world to Syria and disguising them as Syrian army forces to prepare for a war against the Kurds. They will be paid from the €5.8 billion that the EU granted to… pic.twitter.com/FUiMTuwnJN— Botin Kurdistani (@kurdistannews24) January 13, 2026
Iran’s unrest intersects here: a weakened Tehran could diminish its support for Syrian government forces or proxies, potentially allowing Kurdish groups to consolidate or expand, which Ankara sees as a direct threat. Iranian Kurds in border regions like Kermanshah have joined protests, with reports of militant attacks on Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) positions by groups like the Kurdistan Freedom Party (PAK).
Turkish intelligence has reportedly cooperated with Iran to thwart infiltrations by PKK-affiliated militants from Iraq, underscoring shared anti-separatist interests.
Mustafa Caner, an analyst at the pro-government SETA think tank, emphasized that “preserving Iran’s territorial integrity and stability is a priority for Turkey,” despite underlying tensions.
Economically, Turkey benefits from a stable Iran. The two share a 500-kilometer border with annual trade exceeding $10 billion, including energy imports vital amid global sanctions on Tehran.
Unrest could disrupt this, compounding Turkey’s own economic woes. Geopolitically, Turkey opposes U.S. or Israeli intervention, fearing it could embolden regime change efforts that reshape the Middle East unfavorably. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who maintains ties with U.S. President Donald Trump, has called for U.S.-Iran negotiations to resolve issues internally.
This aligns with Turkey’s broader strategy of positioning itself as a mediator while critiquing Western policies.
In Syria, the Aleppo clashes highlight these dynamics. The new Islamist-led government in Damascus, following Bashar al-Assad’s ouster in December 2024, has stalled a March 2025 deal to integrate Kurdish authorities, raising fears of division akin to past sectarian violence.
Kurdish official Ilham Ahmad warned that further offensives could nullify the agreement, while U.S. Central Command urged dialogue.
Experts like Serhan Afacan from Ankara’s Center for Iranian Studies argue that while Turkey views protesters’ economic demands as justified, it cannot align with calls to topple the regime, as that might invite similar scrutiny at home.
Turkey’s own press freedom issues – with dozens of journalists imprisoned – mirror Iran’s repression, yet Ankara frames its position as pragmatic regionalism.
Turkey continues to jail dozens of journalists as pressure on media deepens
As Iran’s regime escalates with executions and Russia’s reported arms support, Turkey’s interests hinge on containment. Fidan has downplayed the protests’ scale compared to 2022, predicting no collapse.
Iran’s shifting sands of unrest present Turkey with both a challenge – potential spillover of Kurdish separatism – and a rare opportunity to advance its interests by intensifying pressure on Kurdish autonomy in Syria while Tehran is distracted.
With agencies.
Caption: Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan attends a joint press conference with his Syrian counterpart in Damascus, Syria, 22 December 2025. A Turkish delegation, including the foreign minister, national defense minister and intelligence chief, visited Syria to meet Syrian interim President Al-Sharaa and other Syrian officials. EPA/MOHAMMED AL-RIFAI
Updated: January 14, 2026 - 09:14
