Sweden sells subs, Poland buys security: major boost for NATO’s northern flank

In a landmark decision that underscores Warsaw’s rapid military modernisation, Poland has chosen Sweden’s Saab to supply three advanced Blekinge-class (A26) submarines in a deal valued at approximately €2.2 billion (around 10 billion zlotys).

The agreement, announced this week, marks the culmination of the long-running Orka programme and represents the first export success for Saab’s latest submarine design.

The new submarines will replace Poland’s sole remaining Soviet-era Kilo-class boat, which has long been obsolete, and dramatically enhance the Polish Navy’s ability to operate in the shallow, confined waters of the Baltic Sea.

Deputy Prime Minister and defence Minister Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz described on 27 November the Swedish bid as the clearest winner across all evaluation criteria, particularly delivery schedule and operational suitability for the Baltic environment.

“Sweden presented the best offer in terms of capability, timeline, and adaptation to the specific conditions of our sea,” Kosiniak-Kamysz said at the announcement. He added that Stockholm has committed to reciprocal arms purchases from Polish industry and will provide an interim “gap-filler” submarine so Polish crews can begin training well before the first A26 arrives, expected in 2030.

A submarine built for the Baltic

The A26 is widely regarded as one of the most advanced conventionally powered submarines in the world. Its air-independent propulsion (AIP) system, based on proven Stirling engines, allows the boat to remain fully submerged for more than 18 days while running almost silently – a critical advantage in the acoustically challenging Baltic, where depths rarely exceed 100 metres and underwater detection is difficult.

Extreme stealth is achieved through a combination of anechoic coatings, a minimal magnetic signature, advanced shock-mounted machinery, and a hull design that reduces both acoustic and thermal footprints. The modular internal layout means the submarines can be rapidly reconfigured for anti-submarine warfare, strike missions with torpedoes or cruise missiles, intelligence gathering, special forces insertion, or mine-laying.

Saab’s CEO, Micael Johansson, called the Polish order “a fantastic milestone and a real breakthrough,” noting that identical capability on both sides of the Baltic significantly raises the bar for any potential aggressor. “It’s incredibly important for the security of the Baltic Sea,” he told reporters.

Deepening Swedish–Polish strategic ties

Although no final contract has yet been signed – negotiations between Saab, the Swedish defence materiel administration (FMV), and Poland’s Armaments agency are expected to conclude by mid-2026 – the political agreement is firm. The package includes extensive industrial cooperation and technology transfer, ensuring substantial benefits for Poland’s defence sector.

For Sweden, the export comes at a crucial moment. The A26 programme has suffered delays and budget pressures at home, and securing Poland as launch customer validates years of investment while helping spread costs.

For Poland, choosing a close NATO and future EU partner in Scandinavia rather than traditional suppliers in France, Germany, or South Korea reflects a deliberate shift toward stronger Baltic and Nordic alliances, especially after Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine and repeated incidents of damage to undersea infrastructure in the region.

Swedish defence minister Pål Jonson emphasised that the deal creates “a common underwater operating system in the Baltic Sea” and strengthens interoperability between the two navies. The submarines will incorporate British equipment, further knitting together a robust northern European defence network.

Part of a much larger modernisation

The Orka programme is only one piece of Poland’s extraordinary surge in defence spending, which now exceeds 4 per cent of GDP – higher than any other European NATO member.

Warsaw is simultaneously fielding 32 F-35A stealth fighters, hundreds of modern tanks (American Abrams and South Korean K2 Black Panther), 96 AH-64E Apache helicopters, and two layers of cutting-edge air- and missile-defence systems under the Wisła and Narew programmes.

Taken together, these investments are transforming Poland from a mid-tier European military into the dominant land power on NATO’s eastern flank and a serious maritime player in the Baltic. With Swedish A26 submarines patrolling beneath the waves and Polish F-35s overhead, the strategic balance in northern Europe is shifting decisively.

As Russia continues to militarise Kaliningrad and threaten regional infrastructure, Warsaw and Stockholm have sent a clear message: the Baltic Sea is no longer an area where aggression can go uncontested. The silent hunters from Saab will soon ensure that any underwater intruder faces a very high price.

Sources: Press release from the Polish Ministry of Defence and Saab, Siol.net, Reuters

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Caption: On 21 October the deputy prime minister and minister of national defence Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz met the Swedish minister of defence Pål Jonson and took part in the Polish-Swedish Defence Industry Forum in Warsaw.[Ministry of National Defence of Poland]