Suspense in Romania: presidential runoff hangs in the balance

With just days until Romania’s presidential runoff on 18 May, the latest opinion poll reveals a razor-thin contest between independent candidate Nicușor Dan and far-right nationalist George Simion.

Conducted by AtlasIntel for HotNews from May 13–15, the survey of 5,628 respondents, including the diaspora vote, shows Dan leading with 48.7% to Simion’s 47.8%—a mere 0.9% gap, well within the poll’s ±1% margin of error at a 95% confidence level.

This neck-and-neck race, following Simion’s commanding 40.96% to Dan’s 20.99% in the first round on 4 May, underscores the high stakes for Romania’s future as a pro-Western EU and NATO member or a potential pivot toward isolationism. The outcome could reshape Romania’s role in European geopolitics, its support for Ukraine, and its domestic stability.

Nicușor Dan: the pro-Western reformer

Nicușor Dan, 55, is a mathematician, former anti-corruption activist, and Bucharest’s mayor since 2020. He studied in France, earning a doctorate in mathematics before returning to Romania to found the Save Romania Union (USR) in 2016, a liberal, anti-establishment party. Dan left USR in 2017 over disagreements on same-sex partnership rights, which he opposed, but retained its support for his 2020 mayoral run and this election. Running as an independent, Dan campaigns on institutional reform, anti-corruption measures, and increased defence spending to bolster Romania’s EU and NATO ties.

Dan’s tenure as mayor has been marked by efforts to modernise Bucharest, tackling urban infrastructure and transparency, though critics argue his reforms have been slow. His runoff campaign frames the election as a choice between a pro-Western, inclusive Romania and Simion’s anti-Western nationalism. Dan has secured endorsements from major parties like the National Liberal Party (PNL), the Hungarian minority’s UDMR, and USR, as well as 91.7% of third-place finisher Crin Antonescu’s voters and 96.7% of USR’s Elena Lasconi’s supporters, per AtlasIntel. He also draws 69.3% of former prime minister Victor Ponta’s base, despite Ponta’s nationalist rhetoric. Dan’s appeal is strongest among young voters (18–29) and those with higher education, according to INSCOP polls.

George Simion: the ultranationalist firebrand

George Simion, 38, leads the Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR), a far-right party he co-founded in 2019. A former football hooligan from Bucharest, Simion rose from fringe activism – marked by anti-vaccination stances during COVID – to leading Romania’s second-largest party. His campaign channels public anger over the annulled 2024 election, which saw far-right candidate Călin Georgescu disqualified amid Russian interference allegations. Simion, who voted alongside Georgescu, has pledged to give him a role, possibly as prime minister, if elected.

Simion’s platform blends ultranationalism, euroscepticism, and admiration for Donald Trump’s MAGA movement. He opposes military aid to Ukraine, criticizes EU leadership, and advocates for a “sovereign” Romania, even calling for pre-WWII borders that include parts of Moldova, Ukraine and Bulgaria – stances that led to bans from the first two countries. While denying pro-Russian ties, Simion’s rhetoric resonates with voters frustrated by corruption and economic woes, particularly among the diaspora (70–80% support in Italy, Spain, and Germany) and those with primary education, per INSCOP. He proposes cutting 500,000 public sector jobs to curb deficits but offers no clear economic plan. Simion’s aggressive style, including past parliamentary outbursts, has drawn support from far-right figures like Italy’s Giorgia Meloni and France’s Marion Maréchal.

Polls in Romania have been inconsistent. AtlasIntel underestimated Simion’s first-round score by 10 points (31% vs. 40.96%), while a Verifield poll for Dan projected Simion at 54.8% for the runoff, and a CURS poll gave him 52%. An IRSOP survey on 15 May showed Dan at 52% to Simion’s 48%, but AtlasIntel’s inclusion of the diaspora aligns with Simion’s strength abroad. Political scientist Claudiu Craciun notes Romania’s shifting landscape, with traditional parties failing to reach the runoff for the second consecutive election, reflecting distrust in the establishment.

A Simion presidency poses significant risks for Romania’s domestic stability, EU/NATO alignment, and regional security, given its 650-km border with Ukraine and role as a NATO logistics hub. As president, Simion would chair the National Security Council, influence military aid, defence spending, and judicial appointments, and hold veto power over EU decisions requiring unanimity.

Sources: AtlasIntel/HotNews Poll, Reuters, Euronews, RFE/RL, edited by g.g.

Caption: A billboard displays electoral posters of the candidates for the 2025 presidential election runoff, in Bucharest, Romania, 15 May 2025. [EPA-EFE/ROBERT GHEMENT]