EditSupport for EU membership in Serbia hangs by a thread
Serbia’s public opinion on EU membership is now almost evenly split - the narrowest gap in years
A growing sense of fatigue and disillusionment is setting the tone for Serbia’s relationship with the European Union. A new nationwide survey by the independent research centre CeSID reveals a razor-thin majority in favour of EU accession – 46% of Serbs would vote “yes” in a hypothetical referendum, while 44% would vote “no”.
The two-point gap is the narrowest recorded in recent years, signalling a public increasingly ambivalent toward Serbia’s European future.
Although Serbs continue to acknowledge the potential benefits of EU membership – with 11 percentage points more respondents identifying advantages over risks – optimism is dwindling. Just 47% believe that Serbia will ever actually join the EU, and more than half (53%) say they expect no tangible improvement in their personal lives if accession happens. At the same time, nearly 80% feel the country is progressing too slowly towards membership, deepening public disappointment and pessimism.
Kosovo, rule of law, Russia
The main obstacle to accession, according to respondents, remains the unresolved issue of Kosovo (36%), followed by concerns about the rule of law and democratic standards (27%). Another 21% cite Belgrade’s refusal to align with EU sanctions against Russia as a key barrier.
Despite these structural impediments, 25 years of financial support from the EU have made the Union Serbia’s top international donor. Expectations among Serbs remain highest in areas such as healthcare, economic development, and judicial reform – precisely the areas where progress has stalled.
The lithium extraction project “Jadar” has also hurt the EU’s image. A full 64% of respondents believe the European Commission’s support for investments in critical raw materials, such as lithium, worsens Brussels’ image. Similarly, the student-led protests that have gripped Serbia for over six months have become a new lens through which EU credibility is judged: 36% of citizens want the EU to clearly condemn the government’s actions and back the students. However, 60% believe it is better for the EU to support peaceful protest without overtly intervening in domestic affairs.
That same 60% say the EU’s current stance on the protests has actually worsened their perception – either because Brussels is being too cautious, or too critical. The contradictory nature of these reactions underscores the complex expectations of EU involvement in Serbia, where dissatisfaction comes from both those who support the protests and those who oppose them.
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Brussels: We need real reforms
During a recent visit to Belgrade, EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Kaja Kallas reiterated that enlargement is not off the table – but warned that the process demands more than promises. “I personally committed to using the political momentum for EU enlargement”, she said a month ago, but added, “We need to see action that supports these pledges – reforms that are real, not just written on paper”.
Speaking at a press conference without Serbian state officials present, Kallas stressed the importance of judicial independence, media freedom, and electoral reforms, while also referencing the ongoing student protests. “Hundreds of thousands are calling for this”, she said.
On Kosovo, Kallas made clear that the time has come to move beyond the past. She also raised the issue of detained demonstrators in Novi Sad, warning that all candidate countries must uphold human rights.
Asked about Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić’s 9 May appearance in Moscow alongside Russian officials, Kallas did not mince her words: “I don’t understand why it’s important to stand shoulder to shoulder with someone waging a brutal war. Candidate countries must align with the Union’s foreign policy”.
Vucic: It’s always been political
Vučić, however, maintains that the EU enlargement process is inherently political. Speaking at the GLOBSEC forum in Prague earlier this month, he dismissed merit-based accession as a myth. “People in Europe like to talk about merit-based approaches,” he said. “But it has never really worked that way.”
He also confirmed that Serbia would not hold early parliamentary elections – one of the key demands of the student movement – saying that the next vote will take place in late 2026 or early 2027.
When asked about Kosovo, Vučić reaffirmed Serbia’s position: “It’s about Kosovo. We adhere to the UN Charter and Resolution 1244, which says Kosovo is part of Serbia. Twenty-two EU countries have recognised Kosovo’s independence; five have not. And Belgrade is not ready to recognise it.”
The CeSID survey, conducted in April 2025 with a nationally representative sample of 1,000 adults, is part of the project Understanding Crises, Building Resilience: Towards the Final Station of European Integration.
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Caption: A protester waves a Serbian flag during the blockade of the Brankova street bridge in Belgrade, Serbia, 01 June 2025. University students are rallying to demand accountability and call for early elections after sixteen people died when the canopy of the newly renovated Novi Sad Railway Station collapsed on 01 November 2024. The station, which had been reopened on 5 July 2024 following renovations, was undergoing additional work shortly before the incident. EPA/ANDREJ CUKIC
Updated: June 23, 2025 - 05:27
