“Super Tuesday” for EU enlargement: momentum builds for some, stalls for others

14 July has been dubbed “Super Tuesday” in EU enlargement circles, with four accession conferences held in a single day – the highest number since 2002. Under the Irish Presidency, Ukraine and Moldova opened Cluster 6 on defence and security policy, Albania closed its first negotiation chapters, and Montenegro advanced by closing its 18th of 33 chapters. These steps signal tangible progress for frontrunners committed to reforms and alignment with EU standards.

Today is a Super Tuesday for EU enlargement.
For the first time in over 2 decades, we are holding four accession conferences on the same day.
Our four front runners Ukraine, Moldova, Albania and Montenegro are all taking major steps forward.
With Ukraine and Moldova, we are… pic.twitter.com/piUZLMuCYc
— Marta Kos (@MartaKosEU) July 14, 2026

The accelerated pace reflects renewed geopolitical urgency, particularly for Ukraine and Moldova amid Russia’s war, and rewards Albania and Montenegro for their consistent reform efforts. Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos hailed the day as a demonstration that the EU can deliver on its promises when candidates show determination.

By its sheer size, Ukraine represents both a historic opportunity and a formidable challenge for the EU, with several member states unwilling to cut corners on rule-of-law and accession standards for geopolitical reasons alone.

Realistically, only Montenegro has a credible chance of full EU accession in the foreseeable future, as it has advanced furthest in negotiations (closing 18 of 33 chapters) and the necessary financial resources have already been earmarked for it in the EU’s next long-term budget.

EU sets aside €3.2bn for Montenegro’s accession, frontrunners receive boost as laggards lose out

Not all EU hopefuls have reason to celebrate. Serbia, despite opening some clusters earlier, continues to face deep divisions among member states over rule-of-law backsliding, alignment with EU foreign policy (notably on Russia), and normalisation with Kosovo. Bosnia and Herzegovina remains bogged down in constitutional dysfunction and ethnic vetoes, with accession talks formally opened but largely stalled. North Macedonia, having completed screening, is still waiting for the first chapters to open – held back by the unresolved constitutional amendment regarding the Bulgarian minority and persistent bilateral hurdles.

If genuine EU accession remains their objective, these Western Balkan countries must confront the uncomfortable truth: technical progress alone is no longer enough. Without broader political will, sustained reforms, and resolution of bilateral disputes, today’s “Super Tuesday” only widens the gap between frontrunners and laggards, turning the enlargement process into a stark illustration of differentiated speed rather than collective advancement.

Diplomats privately doubt whether Serbia genuinely seeks full EU membership or is primarily interested in access to EU funds, as the deep reforms required – particularly full geopolitical alignment with Brussels on Russia and Kosovo – appear too costly for Belgrade to accept. Some even suspect that Serbia is quietly holding back North Macedonia and Bosnia (via Republika Srpska) to preserve a semblance of the former Yugoslavia, in which Belgrade held the leading role.

Caption: Marta Kos (European Commissioner for Enlargement), EU-Moldova accession conference, 15 June 2026 [Council Newroom]