EditStung by Iran war, Trump will seek wins in high-stakes summit with Xi
Any Iran-focused bargain could quietly soften Washington’s stance on Taiwan, raising anxiety among U.S. allies across Asia
When President Donald Trump touches down in the Chinese capital on 13 May for his first state visit to China since 2017, the pomp will be familiar: a red-carpet welcome, talks at the Great Hall of the People, a stroll through the UNESCO-listed Temple of Heaven, a state banquet, and working tea and lunch with President Xi Jinping.
Yet beneath the ceremonial pageantry lies a far more constrained agenda than Trump once envisioned. Blunted by domestic court losses on tariffs and mired in an unpopular war with Iran, the U.S. leader arrives needing visible wins more than Beijing does.
The summit, set for May 14-15, was postponed from late March after the outbreak of the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran in late February upended Trump’s foreign-policy calendar. The war has disrupted global energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz, fuelled inflation concerns at home, and dragged Trump’s approval ratings into the political danger zone. More than 60 percent of Americans disapprove of his handling of the Iran conflict, according to a recent Reuters/Ipsos poll. For Trump, enlisting China’s help to coax Tehran toward a deal has become the overriding priority – even if it means sidelining other long-standing flashpoints.
Trump has made no secret of his ask. He wants Xi to use Beijing’s longstanding ties with Iran – including its role as a major buyer of Iranian oil – to push for a negotiated end to the fighting. Former deputy national security adviser Matt Pottinger, speaking in Taipei last week, noted that while China might welcome any outcome that weakens U.S. global standing, it is hardly immune to the economic fallout of prolonged chaos in the Middle East. Yet analysts caution that Xi will cooperate only on terms that serve Chinese interests. “Trump kind of needs China more than China needs him,” said Alejandro Reyes, a professor of Chinese foreign policy at the University of Hong Kong. “He needs a kind of foreign policy victory: a victory that shows that he is looking to ensure stability in the world and that he’s not just disrupting global politics.”
Trade remains the other headline item, though expectations here too are modest. The two leaders last met briefly at a South Korean airbase in October 2025, where they agreed to pause a bruising escalation of tariffs and rare-earth restrictions. Trump suspended triple-digit duties on Chinese goods; Xi stepped back from choking global supplies of critical minerals. Since then, Beijing has quietly expanded its own economic leverage – tightening rare-earth licensing, enacting anti-sanctions laws, and punishing foreign firms that shift supply chains away from China.
On the U.S. side, deliverables are now limited to a handful of sector-specific deals: agricultural purchases of soybeans and beef, possible Boeing aircraft orders, and mechanisms to manage the fragile truce. A small delegation of American CEOs, including Tesla’s Elon Musk and Apple’s Tim Cook, will accompany Trump – a far leaner group than the 2017 entourage. Officials involved in planning have told Reuters it remains unclear whether the leaders will even formally extend the October truce. Trump, however, struck an upbeat note on Monday: “We used to be taken advantage of for years with our previous presidents, and now we’re doing great with China. I respect him (Xi) a lot, and hopefully he respects me.”
Other issues will surface. Trump has said he will raise U.S. arms sales to Taiwan and the case of jailed Hong Kong media tycoon Jimmy Lai. Families of two Americans detained in China for more than a decade are also pressing for their release. Yet for Xi, Taiwan sits at the very top of the agenda. Wu Xinbo, a professor at Fudan University who advises China’s foreign ministry, said Trump must make clear he “won’t support independence or take actions that encourage a separatist political agenda.”
Here lies the clearest downside risk. Any Iran-focused bargain could quietly soften Washington’s stance on Taiwan, raising anxiety among U.S. allies across Asia. Even nuanced wording shifts in joint statements might embolden Beijing or erode deterrence. “A superficial ceasefire that is largely to China’s advantage” is the most likely outcome, according to Scott Kennedy of the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.
Russia’s war in Ukraine, by contrast, is unlikely to feature prominently. While China retains influence in Moscow, Trump has little interest in appearing as the supplicant on two separate conflicts he is eager to wind down. Beijing, for its part, has kept a low profile on the Middle East fighting while quietly benefiting from discounted Iranian oil and expanded diplomatic leverage.
Public opinion in the United States has shifted noticeably. A Chicago Council on Global Affairs survey released in October found that 53 percent of Americans now favour “friendly cooperation and engagement” with China, up from 40 percent in 2024 — a reflection, perhaps, of war fatigue and tariff backlash.
For Trump, success will be measured in optics: a handshake photo, a couple of farm and aircraft announcements, and any hint of Iranian movement. For Xi, the bar is lower – simply keeping relations on an even keel while extracting commitments against future U.S. tech export controls or tariff threats would count as a win. The visit also sets the stage for Xi’s planned reciprocal trip to the United States later in 2026.
A year ago, Trump boasted that towering tariffs would bring America’s chief economic rival to heel. Today he arrives in Beijing humbled by courtroom reversals, an intractable Middle Eastern war, and the reality that great-power diplomacy rarely yields the clean victories once promised on the campaign trail. The Iran quagmire has forced a recalibration: Trump needs a deal, any deal, and Xi is in no rush to hand one over for free.
With Reuters.
Caption: People walk at the Temple of Heaven in Beijing, China, 12 May 2026. US President Donald Trump will pay a state visit to China from 13 to 15 May. EPA/WU HAO
Updated: May 12, 2026 - 15:37
