Stray Ukrainian drones test Baltic solidarity as attacks near Russia intensify

As Ukraine intensifies long-range strikes against Russian oil infrastructure near the Baltic region, an unintended consequence is beginning to test relations with some of Kyiv’s closest European allies.

In recent months, Ukrainian drones targeting facilities near St. Petersburg and the Gulf of Finland have repeatedly crossed into the airspace of Finland and the Baltic states, occasionally crashing on their territory. Until now, the incidents have caused little damage. But a recent drone strike on an oil storage site in Latvia has heightened concerns about the risks posed by increasingly frequent incursions.

On 3 May, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy met Finnish Prime Minister Petteri Orpo in Yerevan. During the meeting, Orpo reaffirmed Finland’s support for Ukraine while warning that repeated violations of Finnish airspace were unacceptable.

The remarks came after two Ukrainian drones crashed in Finland earlier that same morning. Similar incidents have occurred repeatedly since March, as Ukraine stepped up attacks against Russian energy infrastructure near the Finnish and Estonian borders, including the ports of Primorsk and Ust-Luga.

For many Ukrainians, the strikes symbolise an attempt to undermine Russia’s oil revenues at a time when global energy prices remain elevated due to tensions in the Middle East. But geographically, the operations also increase the likelihood of drones straying into neighbouring NATO and EU member states.

The issue escalated sharply on 7 May, when an unidentified drone struck an oil storage facility in Latvia. The tank that was hit happened to be empty, limiting the damage and allowing firefighters to quickly contain the blaze. However, the incident highlighted how serious the consequences could be if a fully loaded facility were struck.

Latvian authorities have not officially confirmed whether the drone was Ukrainian, and officials continue to describe the devices involved as being of “unknown origin”. The possibility of a Russian “false flag” operation – deliberately staging an attack to blame Ukraine, has not been ruled out publicly, although no evidence has been presented.

Still, the incidents present a growing challenge for Kyiv’s relations with allied governments, all of which must balance support for Ukraine with domestic security concerns.

Most of the drone incursions were recorded in late March, when Ukrainian forces were conducting intensive strikes against Russian infrastructure near the Baltic region. On 23 March, a Ukrainian UAV crashed into a frozen lake in Lithuania near the Belarusian border. Two days later, another drone hit a power plant chimney in Estonia, while a separate UAV exploded in Latvia’s Kraslava district after entering from Russian airspace.

At the end of March, several drones were also discovered in Finland near Kouvola and Parikkala, close to the Russian border. On the night of 31 March alone, up to a dozen drones reportedly entered Estonian airspace.

Such incidents are widely seen as an inevitable side effect of long-range drone warfare. The shortest routes from Ukraine to strategic Russian ports near St. Petersburg pass close to the eastern borders of Estonia and Latvia, while the targets themselves lie near Finland and Estonia.

Electronic warfare also plays a major role. Russian jamming systems interfere with GPS navigation and communication channels, potentially disorienting Ukrainian drones and causing them to deviate from their intended flight paths. Kyiv has consistently used this explanation in discussions with partners.

However, officials and analysts are increasingly concerned that Russia could exploit the situation by launching drones disguised as Ukrainian systems in order to destabilise relations between Kyiv and neighbouring NATO countries.

The Latvian incident intensified political debate inside the country. The government held an emergency meeting after the strike, while opposition figures criticised the military for not intercepting the drones. Defence officials argued that attempting to shoot them down could have posed additional risks to civilians and infrastructure.

President Edgars Rinkēvičs described the incidents as a direct consequence of Russia’s war against Ukraine, and Latvia once again summoned Russia’s chargé d’affaires to issue a formal protest.

At the same time, the rhetoric coming from regional capitals has become noticeably firmer compared with March, when leaders emphasised that they did not blame Ukraine and understood the unavoidable risks associated with the war.

Finnish President Alexander Stubb previously avoided harsh criticism after speaking with Zelenskyy following earlier incidents. Finnish Foreign Minister Elina Valtonen also stressed at the time that Helsinki was not demanding that Ukraine scale back attacks on Russian targets.

But recent comments from Finnish officials suggest growing frustration. Finnish Defence Minister Antti Häkkänen stated that Ukraine must plan operations in ways that minimise the risk of drones straying into neighbouring states.

Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda and Latvian officials have similarly acknowledged that such incidents could continue in the future.

Russia, meanwhile, has sought to exploit the issue politically. Russian officials, including Security Council Secretary Sergei Shoigu and Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, have accused Baltic states and Finland of allowing their territory to be used for Ukrainian attacks against Russia – claims all four governments have firmly rejected.

Kyiv has publicly apologised for individual incidents while insisting they are unintended consequences of Russian aggression and electronic warfare. Ukrainian Foreign Ministry spokesman Heorhii Tykhyi said Ukraine “did not and could not” deliberately direct drones towards Baltic countries.

Yet as long as Ukraine continues long-range strikes against Russian infrastructure, the risk of further incidents is likely to remain. For Kyiv and its allies, the challenge increasingly lies not only in managing military cooperation, but also in preventing accidental incidents or potential Russian provocations from undermining regional solidarity.

The full article in Ukrainian by EUalive’s partner European Pravda can be read here.

Caption: Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky (L) and Finland’s Prime Minister Petteri Orpo gesture during their meeting at the prime minister’s residence as part of an official visit to Helsinki, Finland, 19 March 2025. EPA/KIMMO BRANDT