Slovenian President urges calm as NATO membership referendum sparks political turmoil

Slovenian President Nataša Pirc Musar issued a call for restraint on 5 July, urging political leaders to de-escalate tensions following a contentious parliamentary vote that approved a consultative referendum on increasing defence spending and prompted Prime Minister Robert Golob to propose a separate referendum on Slovenia’s NATO membership.

The president emphasised the need for dialogue, stating, “We should not jump from one decision to another. Passions must be calmed, and all parties must engage in constructive talks.” Her remarks, reported by the Slovenian News Agency (STA), come as the ruling coalition faces internal fractures and the spectre of early elections looms.

The controversy erupted after Slovenia’s parliament voted 46-42 on 4 July to hold a non-binding referendum on raising defence spending to 3% of GDP by 2030, equivalent to approximately €2.1 billion annually.

The initiative, proposed by The Left, a junior partner in Golob’s center-left coalition, was supported by the Social Democrats and conservative opposition parties, including the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) and New Slovenia (NSi).

Debate got out of hand

Golob’s Freedom Movement, the largest coalition party, opposed the measure, exposing deep rifts within the government. In response, Golob announced plans to table a separate consultative referendum on whether Slovenia should remain in NATO, arguing, “There are only two options: either we stay in NATO and pay membership fees, or we leave the alliance. Everything else is populist deceit.”

The NATO referendum proposal is set to be formally submitted to the National Assembly next week.

The debate stems from Slovenia’s commitments at the NATO summit in The Hague on 24 June, where allies agreed to a new defence spending target of 5% of GDP by 2035, with 3.5% allocated to military expenditures and 1.5% to broader security measures like cyber defence.

This target, championed by U.S. President Donald Trump, has sparked resistance in Slovenia, where defence spending currently ranks among the lowest in NATO at roughly 1.4% of GDP. The Left, which opposes NATO membership, framed the 3% referendum as a way to challenge the government’s fiscal priorities, while Golob’s NATO referendum is seen as a strategic countermeasure to rally public support for the alliance and deflect criticism.

President Pirc Musar called for transparency, stating, “We need to talk openly about what is actually happening behind the scenes,” and announced a meeting with Golob to address the crisis.

The move follows a surprise parliamentary defeat for Golob, whose coalition was blindsided when The Left and Social Democrats joined forces with the conservative opposition. The SDS, led by Janez Janša, dismissed the NATO referendum as unfeasible, noting that withdrawing from the alliance requires a two-thirds majority in the National Assembly, which Golob’s coalition lacks.

Janša urged voters to remain calm, suggesting they protest the government by casting invalid ballots with the phrase “down with the incompetent government.” Posts on X from Janša reiterated that Slovenia’s NATO membership, ratified in 2003 with 66.08% public support, is constitutionally secure.

The controversy has deepened Slovenia’s political instability, raising the prospect of the coalition’s collapse and early elections before the scheduled 2026 vote.

A 1 July poll showed the SDS leading with 23.8% support, followed by the Freedom Movement at 16.4%, signalling a potential shift in power if elections are called.

The crisis also underscores Slovenia’s delicate balancing act. The country’s 2003 NATO referendum affirmed its commitment to the alliance, but rising defence costs strain its budget, already stretched by social programs and infrastructure needs. Golob has argued that Slovenia is bound only by its parliamentary commitment to 3% by 2030, not NATO’s 5% target, which he described as non-binding in a July 1 interview with state television.

However, NATO’s push for increased spending, coupled with fears of a U.S. troop drawdown under Trump, has heightened pressure on European members to bolster their militaries, adding urgency to Slovenia’s domestic debate.

Edited by g.g.

Caption: Slovenia’s President Natasa Pirc Musar addresses a plenary session at the European Parliament in Brussels, Belgium, 21 May 2025. The European Parliament’s plenary session in Brussels runs from 21 to 22 May 2025. EPA/OLIVIER HOSLET