Slovenia risks becoming NATO’s weak link

Quite unexpectedly, Slovenia, a small post-Yugoslav country – could soon become NATO’s “weakest link.”

A national referendum is due to be held on whether the country should increase its defence spending to meet NATO targets agreed at the Hague summit. And with high probability, another vote may follow – one on leaving the Alliance altogether.

This situation has already sparked a deep political crisis that could lead to the government’s collapse and early elections, Yuriy Panchenko writes for EUalive’s partner European Pravda.

But far more is at stake.

If Slovenian citizens vote “no” to increased military spending, it would set an unwelcome precedent for all NATO member states. And public support for a NATO exit could plant a political timebomb in the country – and set a dangerous precedent for others.

Naturally, calls for such referendums have turned Slovenia into a target for a barrage of information attacks, which Ljubljana may not be institutionally prepared to resist.

A coalition without principles

Unlike other Central European countries that joined the EU in 2004, Slovenia does not perceive any direct threat from Russia. Nor does it feel pressure from its former federal partner Serbia.

As a result, Slovenia only joined NATO in 2004, just before its EU accession, and has never excelled in fulfilling the 2% GDP defence spending pledge. The country is expected to reach that level only by the end of this year; in 2023, it spent just 1.35% of GDP on defence.

The recent NATO summit pledge to increase defence budgets further poses a political challenge, especially given that the country is governed by a centre-left coalition. Two of its members – the Social Democrats and Levica, are strongly opposed to raising defence expenditures. Levica, in particular, has consistently demanded a mandatory national referendum on Slovenia’s NATO membership.

Nonetheless, Prime Minister Robert Golob managed to push through a gradual spending increase plan, envisaging an annual rise of 0.2 percentage points to reach 3% of GDP by 2030.

Despite internal opposition, the plan was adopted by the government.

Then came an unexpected twist.

On 4 July, during an extraordinary parliamentary session, Levica tabled a motion for a consultative referendum on defence spending. Before the session began, the Social Democrats had already expressed support. Golob’s party, the Freedom Movement, opposed the move.

Together, the two leftist factions hold only 11 seats in Slovenia’s 90-member National Assembly, making the proposal’s success seem unlikely.

Yet, the motion was adopted – with the slimmest of majorities. Forty-six MPs voted in favour, thanks not only to Levica and independent deputies but also to support from the right-wing opposition: the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) led by former PM Janez Janša, and New Slovenia – Christian Democrats.

Both parties are formally committed to NATO. Yet political calculus prevailed: parliamentary elections are expected next year, and weakening Golob’s government could pave the way for a power shift or early polls.

This unexpected alliance between ideological opponents was dubbed by Golob’s party as a “coalition without principles.”

New Slovenia MP Žiga Cigler Kralj defended the vote, claiming the party could no longer tolerate the government “lying to NATO allies and the international and domestic public.”

Former PM Janša, for his part, downplayed the referendum’s importance, framing it as a symbolic vote of confidence in the government. “We need this debate. The referendum won’t be valid due to the coalition’s games, so people should simply write: ‘Down with this incompetent and hollow government!’” he wrote on X.

Legally, the referendum’s result is non-binding. But politically, the government cannot ignore its outcome. A “No” vote would oblige the cabinet to resign – especially since the referendum question is framed in a way that virtually invites rejection:

“Do you support increasing Slovenia’s defence spending to reach 3% of GDP by 2030, which currently amounts to approximately €2.1 billion annually?”

Polls suggest a majority of Slovenes would say “no”.

Playing with fire

Yet the upcoming referendum is only half the problem. PM Golob’s reaction may prove even more consequential.

He announced that his party would propose a second referendum – this time on NATO membership. “There are only two options: either we stay in NATO and pay our dues, or we leave. Everything else is populist deception,” he declared.

So far, this initiative has been postponed pending legal consultations. A round of talks was set for 9 July within his party, followed by discussions with coalition partners the next day, and finally – a meeting with all MPs, including opposition parties, on 11 July.

Predictably, the opposition has lashed out.

“Unfortunately, the first negative reactions are already emerging abroad, and social media is rife with disinformation campaigns about Slovenia’s potential NATO exit,” wrote former Foreign Minister Anže Logar (SDS) in a letter to Golob.

“Questioning our commitment to security goes far beyond national borders and undermines our credibility on the international stage, particularly in a time of escalating global threats and hybrid warfare from authoritarian regimes,” he warned.

New Slovenia echoed this view, saying that Golob was “playing with fire and has already been burned.”

Paradoxically, if the second referendum is tabled, it is likely to pass.

Golob’s Freedom Movement controls 39 seats. The Social Democrats and Levica are also expected to support the initiative. Levica leader Matej Tašner Vatovec stated clearly: “Our programme is unambiguous – we support Slovenia’s exit from NATO.” The party only wishes to see the final wording of the question.

Between two fires

What is Golob’s endgame?

Many Slovenian constitutional experts believe the two proposed referendums are mutually exclusive. It is legally inconsistent to approve NATO obligations and simultaneously vote to leave the Alliance.

Thus, the legal advice is either to separate the votes in time – or to hold only one, combining both issues in a single, coherent question.

That could give the government a narrow path forward: framing the referendum as a binary choice – raise defence spending or exit NATO.

However, such a strategy carries substantial risks.

Last year’s polls showed that 58% of Slovenes supported NATO membership, with only 11% in favour of leaving – close to the 66% approval seen in the 2003 NATO accession referendum.

But that was before the new commitment to raise defence spending to 3% of GDP – or 5% in the broader NATO debate. In Slovenia, that could mean allocating up to 20% of the state budget to defence – despite no immediate security threat being perceived.

Thus, the number of anti-NATO voters could grow significantly.

And any such referendum would be closely watched by NATO’s adversaries who would seek to exploit the situation and deepen internal rifts within the Alliance.

Even though the result would be consultative, ignoring it would be politically perilous – yet so would acting upon it, given the parliamentary majority in favour of NATO membership.

There is, however, one way out: reaching a deal with the opposition to withdraw the initial defence spending referendum – and shelving the NATO exit vote.

According to Slovenian media, such a solution is currently under discussion. And it may well be the best option – both for Slovenia and for NATO.

Because if no agreement is reached, Slovenia’s referendums will become a gift to the Alliance’s opponents – particularly the Kremlin, who will use every available tool to destabilise and divide NATO.

Slovenian President urges calm as NATO membership referendum sparks political turmoil

Caption: Slovenian Prime Minister Robert Golob speaks to the media as he arrives at the NATO Summit in Washington, DC, USA, 11 July 2024. EPA/WILL OLIVER