Slovenia faces a defining election: Janša’s eurosceptic revival vs. Golob’s reform gamble

As Slovenia approaches its parliamentary elections on 22 March, the country finds itself enveloped in an atmosphere of profound political uncertainty and rising ideological tensions.

This vote stands out as one of the most consequential in recent Slovenian history, with the incumbent center-left coalition confronting a revitalized right-wing opposition in a highly fragmented political landscape where coalition negotiations after the election will almost certainly prove decisive.

A closely contested battle between stability and widespread discontent

The central contest pits Prime Minister Robert Golob’s center-left coalition – dominated by his Freedom Movement (Gibanje Svoboda), which has held power since 2022, against the resurgent opposition led by former Prime Minister Janez Janša and his Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS). Janša remains a deeply polarizing figure, recognized for his Eurosceptic outlook and populist rhetoric. During his time in office, his government faced repeated criticism from European institutions over issues related to freedom of speech and the rule of law – charges that Janša has steadfastly denied. In 2021, while serving as prime minister, he sparked controversy by posting a collage on Twitter titled “13 of the 226 known Soros puppets in the European Parliament,” with arrows pointing to several MEPs, including Sofia in ‘t Veld. Janša has frequently aligned himself with Hungary’s Viktor Orbán in EU disputes and was among the first EU leaders to congratulate Donald Trump after his initial presidential victory.

Analysts widely expect an extremely tight race. Golob’s campaign revolves around themes of stability, policy continuity, and ongoing reforms in areas such as green energy, healthcare, pensions, long-term care, and public sector wages, presenting Slovenia as a nation advancing steadily under his leadership. Janša, meanwhile, seeks to channel deep public frustration over inflation, migration policies, economic pressures, and a perceived decline in societal security.

Recent January opinion polls, including those from the Mediana Institute, highlight the opposition’s current lead: the SDS garners between 20.6% and 21.7% support, ahead of the Freedom Movement’s 14.9% to 16.9%. Other parties trail, with the Social Democrats at around 6.4%, Anže Logar’s Democrats at 5.2%, and the radical left-wing Levica (The Left) also at 5.2%. Additional contenders sit near or just above the 4% threshold needed for parliamentary representation, including New Slovenia (NSi) at 4.6%, Resni.ca (Truth) at 4.5%, the Pirate Party at 2.8%, and Renaissance at 2.4%. With potentially seven parties crossing the threshold, the next National Assembly will almost certainly be severely fragmented, making the formation of a stable majority government extraordinarily challenging. A broad, cross-ideological grand coalition appears unlikely given the sharp polarization, leaving fragile minority governments or short-lived alliances as the most plausible outcomes.

Slovenia’s election carries weight far beyond its borders. As an EU member state confronting ambitious climate goals, regional security threats, and the lasting economic effects of Russia’s war in Ukraine, the result will influence wider European dynamics. In this fragmented setup, smaller parties will hold outsized leverage, positioning them as potential kingmakers in post-election bargaining.

Deep divisions, economic pressures, and the emergence of rival populisms

The campaign revives the intense polarization that defined the 2022 elections, when Golob cast himself as the antidote to Janša’s confrontational, often labeled “Trumpist,” approach. Slovenian political discourse continues to split society into “Janšist” and “anti-Janšist,” a framing that persists strongly within liberal-left circles and much of the mainstream media, even as the party system becomes increasingly splintered.

Voters face a broad spectrum of concerns: personal well-being and purchasing power, Slovenia’s place in the EU amid volatile geopolitics, national and global security, the war in Gaza and relations with Israel, immigration, identity politics, and the integration of the Roma minority. The ruling coalition emphasizes its record of major reforms and social measures, such as the 639-euro Christmas bonus distributed to employees late last year and an upcoming minimum wage increase of roughly 100 euros net, which would raise the net minimum to nearly 1,000 euros (or 1,482 euros gross). Critics from the right, including NSi, dismiss these as temporary “sweeteners” that conceal deeper structural problems.

Economically, Slovenia grapples with serious challenges. Unemployment has stayed low at around 4% since Golob assumed office, yet the country has accumulated substantial new debt—over six billion euros in absolute terms—with total public debt exceeding 48 billion euros, even as the debt-to-GDP ratio remains at approximately 68%. The proposed 2026 budget envisions 15.6 billion euros in revenue against 17.7 billion euros in spending, prompting economists and right-leaning business circles to warn of a looming fiscal crisis for the incoming government. GDP growth reached about 1.6% in 2024, but Slovenia’s standing in the IMD World Competitiveness Ranking stagnated at 46th out of 69 in 2025, unchanged from 2024 after an eight-place drop the year before. Small business owners voice growing frustration over rising taxes and regulatory burdens, with some considering relocation to neighboring countries like Croatia or Bosnia. Golob has publicly suggested that dissatisfied entrepreneurs are welcome to leave.

Janša has adopted a bold, populist tone, pledging to end state funding for NGOs associated with left-wing policies while preserving support for organizations such as Caritas, the Red Cross, and volunteer firefighters. The current government’s expansion of the public sector has drawn criticism for allegedly hindering entrepreneurship and private initiative.

Golob himself faces persistent integrity questions from the Corruption Prevention Commission (KPK). The commission has found violations of the Integrity and Corruption Prevention Act, including through unauthorized text messages sent in November 2022 to then-Interior Minister Tatjana Bobnar expressing dissatisfaction with the lack of a “purge of Janša elements” in the police—despite lacking authority over such decisions. Investigations into potential conflicts of interest continue, particularly regarding connections to businessman Tomaž Subotić and a holiday in Carigador. In a February 3 interview on Radio Slovenia, Golob expressed surprise at a court-requested document that appeared to clear him in the Carigador case, accused the KPK of withholding information, and stated his readiness to pay any fine to conclude the matters. The KPK responded by affirming that conflict-of-interest proceedings remain ongoing and criticized Golob’s remarks as misleading attacks on the institution.

Observers have identified an emerging pattern of left-wing populism under Golob, characterized by a celebrity-style approach featuring his wife, Tina Gaber Golob, who actively uses social media and assumes a de facto “first lady” role—despite that title traditionally belonging to the president’s spouse. This development contrasts with Golob’s earlier commitments to limit heavy social media involvement.

With the campaign gaining momentum, Slovenia arrives at a critical crossroads. The outcome will shape not only domestic governance but also the nation’s position and resilience within an increasingly volatile Europe.

Sources: Siol.net, BGNES, Radio Slovenia

Caption: Slovenia’s Prime Minister Robert Golob and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen (R) during an informal meeting of the members of the European Council in Brussels, Belgium, 22 January 2026. EU leaders are holding an emergency informal summit to address an escalation in transatlantic tensions regarding Greenland and new US trade threats. EPA/OLIVIER HOSLET