EditSerbia’s perilous balance: Vučić confronts Russia’s betrayal claims and explosion at a military plant
Vučić, a populist navigating a tightrope between Moscow and the EU, has found himself in the crosshairs of Russia’s ire
Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić faces a perfect storm of challenges: escalating student protests, a deadly explosion at a key defense facility, and accusations from long-standing ally Russia of betraying their historic bond by allegedly supplying arms to Ukraine. As Serbia straddles the divide between East and West, these developments threaten to unravel Vučić’s carefully crafted foreign policy and expose the fragility of Belgrade’s neutrality.
Explosion at Krušik: A dangerous flashpoint
A devastating explosion shook the Krušik defense plant in Valjevo, Serbia, on 30 May. The blast, caused by the accidental activation of a detonator amplifier during the handling of PETN – a potent high-explosive compound – left one worker with severe lacerations and four others suffering concussion symptoms, including tinnitus. All injured personnel were rushed to a hospital for medical evaluation and specialized hearing tests.
The timing of the incident, mere days after Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) accused Krušik and other Serbian defense firms of supplying Ukraine with ammunition, has fueled speculation of sabotage or heightened scrutiny of Serbia’s arms industry. While no evidence links the explosion to foul play, it has intensified the spotlight on Vučić’s government and its geopolitical tightrope.
A “stab in the back”
Formerly the Foreign Intelligence Service of Russia issued a blistering statement titled “Serbia is trying to shoot Russia in the back,” alleging that Serbian defense enterprises are systematically exporting Soviet-era ammunition – still used by Ukraine’s forces – through intermediaries like the Czech Republic, Poland, Bulgaria, and even African states. The agency claims these shipments, facilitated by fake end-user certificates, include hundreds of thousands of artillery shells, rockets, and over a million small-arms cartridges. Companies such as Jugoimport SDPR, Krušik, Sloboda, and Prvi Partizan are named as key players in what the SVR calls a “death belt” designed to arm Ukraine against Russian forces.
The statement drips with indignation, invoking the shared history of Russia and Serbia. “Russia has stood by Serbia at every historical turning point: from liberation from the Ottoman Empire to resisting NATO’s bombing and the Kosovo tragedy,” the SVR declared. It accuses Serbia’s leadership of being “blinded by profit” and forgetting “who their true friends and enemies are,” framing the arms exports as a betrayal of Slavic brotherhood.
Serbia’s precarious balancing act
Vučić, a populist navigating a tightrope between Moscow and the EU, has found himself in the crosshairs of Russia’s ire. In a recent interview with state-run RTS television, Vučić acknowledged discussing the issue with Russian President Vladimir Putin during a May 9 meeting in Moscow. He claimed the two leaders agreed to form a “working group” to investigate how Serbian weapons reach Ukraine. Vučić has maintained that Serbia’s official stance is neutral, and in a 2024 Financial Times interview, he admitted Serbia supplies arms to countries supporting Ukraine but claimed ignorance about their final destination.
“Some of the allegations are not true,” Vučić insisted, denying specific claims like missile deliveries to the Czech Republic. He defended Serbia’s defense industry, which employs 24,000 people, arguing that it must continue to operate to sustain livelihoods. Yet, his assurances have done little to quell Moscow’s outrage, which views Serbia’s actions as a direct challenge to Russian interests.
A tangled web of arms and diplomacy
The SVR’s accusations come at a time when Serbia’s geopolitical maneuvering is under intense scrutiny. While Belgrade officially pursues EU membership, it maintains close ties with Moscow, particularly in energy deals. Vučić’s recent meeting with Russian Ambassador Aleksandar Bokan-Kharchenko focused on energy cooperation, with the Serbian president expressing optimism about strengthening bilateral ties. Meanwhile, Aleksandar Vulin, a close Vučić ally and former deputy prime minister, attended a security forum in Moscow hosted by Sergei Shoigu, despite being sanctioned by the U.S. in 2023 for alleged ties to Russia and drug trafficking.
The EU, too, is watching closely. On 28 May EU High Representative Kaja Kallas visited Belgrade, pressing for reforms in freedom of speech, anti-corruption measures, and electoral laws as conditions for Serbia’s EU candidacy. Kallas pointedly criticised Vučić’s Moscow visit, stating, “I don’t understand why it is important to stand shoulder to shoulder with someone waging a terrible war.” Her remarks underscore the EU’s expectation that Serbia align with its foreign policy, a demand at odds with Belgrade’s ties to Russia.
Why now?
The timing of Russia’s accusations raises eyebrows. Serbian arms exports to Ukraine have been an open secret since 2023, yet Moscow’s decision to escalate the issue now suggests strategic motives. Analysts speculate that Russia aims to pressure Serbia amid its own battlefield setbacks in Ukraine or to disrupt Belgrade’s flirtation with the West. The Kremlin may also be signaling to other allies that neutrality in the Ukraine conflict comes at a cost.
The allegations also risk entangling other European nations. The use of NATO intermediaries and fake certificates could spark diplomatic fallout, particularly if evidence substantiates Moscow’s claims. For Serbia, the fallout could be severe: a damaged relationship with Russia, its historical ally, and increased pressure from the EU to pick a side.
A fractured alliance?
Moscow’s accusations have placed Serbia in a precarious position. Vučić’s government must now navigate domestic unrest – fueled by protests demanding reforms – and external pressures from both Russia and the West. The formation of a joint working group with Russia may be a diplomatic olive branch, but it’s unlikely to fully appease Moscow’s sense of betrayal.
As the Ukraine conflict grinds on, Serbia’s attempt to maintain neutrality while profiting from its defense industry has exposed it to accusations of duplicity. Whether Belgrade can mend ties with Moscow while keeping its EU aspirations alive remains uncertain. For now, the “fraternal ties” between Russia and Serbia hang in the balance, tested by the very arms that fuel a distant war.
Sources: Our partner media Beta, IBNA, BGNES
Caption: Russian President Vladimir Putin (L) and Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic (R) enter the hall during their meeting in Kremlin, Moscow, Russia, 09 May 2025. Russia marks the 80th anniversary of the victory in World War II over Nazi Germany and its allies. [EPA/ALEXANDER ZEMLIANICHENKO/AP POOL]
Updated: May 31, 2025 - 06:02
