EditSerbia’s gas diplomacy: navigating Russian ties and EU ambitions
Vučić risks entrenching the Western Balkans in a cycle of energy dependence
On a visit to Moscow, Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić sought a new, more favourable gas supply agreement with Russia, securing larger volumes at unbeatable prices. His initiative, however, risks straining Serbia’s already fragile relationship with the European Union, which is accelerating its push to eliminate Russian energy imports by 2027.
Russian gas, transported through the TurkStream pipeline, serves as Serbia’s primary energy source, supplemented only by minimal domestic production. The existing contract between Moscow and Belgrade expires at the end of this month, and Vučić is advocating for a new agreement with more favourable terms, likely mirroring the one secured by Hungary.
On 8 May, Vučić underscored in Moscow the economic advantages of Serbia’s current gas supply from Russia, delivered via the TurkStream pipeline through Bulgaria. He outlined Serbia’s ambition to secure a daily supply of eight million cubic meters of gas, with an option for an additional four million, under terms comparable to Hungary’s preferential agreement.
“European TTF gas prices fell from $410 to $400 per 1,000 cubic meters, while Serbia pays just $275,” Vučić remarked, highlighting annual savings of approximately €365 million. “These funds could build 10 to 30 kilometres of highways or cover 75% of Serbia’s monthly pension costs,” he added, framing the deal as critical for economic stability.
Serbia’s gas demand surges to 15–18 million cubic meters daily during peak winter and summer periods, necessitating withdrawals from storage facilities in Hungary. To bolster energy security, Serbia is expanding its Banatski Dvor storage site. With the current Russia contract expiring this month, Vučić aims to lock in a long-term, low-cost supply to shield Serbia from volatile global energy markets.
EU’s push to end Russian energy dependence
Vučić’s plans collide with the European Union’s 7 May announcement of a plan to phase out Russian energy imports, a move aimed at reducing Moscow’s geopolitical leverage.
EU to end all Russian gas and oil imports by 2027, signals robust energy sanctions
Martin Vladimirov, director of the Energy and Climate Program at the Center for the Study of Democracy, warned that Serbia’s pursuit of a new Russian gas contract could undermine regional efforts to transition away from Russian energy.
“The objective is to entrench Serbia and the broader Western Balkans in long-term reliance on Russian gas,” Vladimirov said.
Serbia has been negotiating EU membership since 2014, and alignment with Brussels’ policies to phase out Russian gas will be essential if the country truly seeks EU membership, Vladimirov emphasised.
Vladimirov argued that it is unfeasible for Hungary, Slovakia, Bulgaria, and Greece to halt the transit and purchase of Russian gas while Serbia continues its imports, as no alternative supply routes exist.
“Serbia’s calculations overlook practical realities. A new long-term contract would create legal barriers to swiftly reducing reliance on Russian gas. This is a deliberate strategy, not exclusive to Serbia but evident regionally, particularly in Hungary and Slovakia,” he underscored.
Vladimirov also highlighted that Bulgaria had increased gas transit via TurkStream, with current volumes exceeding the pipeline’s technical capacity. Through a deal with Turkey’s Botaş, Russia and Turkey appear to be working to boost sales of Gazprom-supplied gas.
Vučić’s defiant Moscow visit
Vučić’s attendance at Russia’s Victory Day celebrations in Moscow on 9 May drew sharp rebuke from EU officials. Defying airspace restrictions imposed by Latvia and Lithuania, Vučić joined a Kremlin gala hosted by Russian President Vladimir Putin. In an Instagram post, he described a brief exchange with Putin, asserting Serbia’s sovereignty: “I fight for my people and country, elected by Serbian citizens, not in Riga or Tallinn.”
The visit is Vučić’s first to Moscow since a deadly canopy collapse at Novi Sad’s train station in November 2024 provoked serious domestic unrest, and it underscored his willingness to challenge EU pressure. Speaking to Serbian national broadcaster RTS from Red Square, he dismissed Brussels’ criticism, stating: “Belgrade is prepared to face any consequences. My plans have been transparent.”
Serbia’s EU membership aspirations face growing hurdles. Tonino Picula, the European Parliament’s rapporteur for Serbia, told Insider TV that Vučić’s Moscow visit jeopardises Belgrade’s path to EU integration. “Serbia’s alignment with Russia, particularly in energy policy, contradicts EU priorities,” Picula said, hinting at the possibility of a stalled accession process akin to those of Turkey and Georgia.
As Serbia weighs the economic benefits of Russian gas against its EU ambitions, Vučić’s high-stakes diplomacy risks alienating Belgrade from Brussels. By deepening ties with Moscow, Serbia risks entrenching the Western Balkans in a cycle of energy dependence, complicating the region’s alignment with the EU’s strategic goals.
As Serbia navigates this delicate balance, its decisions will shape not only its EU accession prospects but also the broader geopolitical dynamics of the Western Balkans.
With additional reporting by Antonia Kotseva.
Caption: A handout photo made available by Photo host Agency RIA Novosti shows President of Serbia Aleksandar Vucic attending the Victory Day military parade, marking the 80th anniversary of victory in the Great Patriotic War, on the Red Square in Moscow, Russia, 9 May 2025. [EPA-EFE/ILYA PITALEV]
Updated: May 11, 2025 - 16:58
