Serbia local elections deliver serious blow to Vučić

The local elections held on 29 March in 10 Serbian municipalities and towns have delivered a significant political setback to President Aleksandar Vučić and his ruling Serbian Progressive Party (SNS)-led coalition.

Although these were small-scale contests and not nationally representative, the results suggest that Vučić’s coalition would struggle to secure a majority in a hypothetical general election held today – even with the usual levels of manipulation.

Widespread irregularities and violence

The elections were marred by serious irregularities and violence, continuing a pattern seen in Serbian votes over the past decade. Independent observers and opposition groups reported parallel voter lists, ballot stuffing, organised voter transportation, and clear signs of vote-buying and pressure.

The atmosphere was particularly tense in Bor, Bajina Bašta, and Kula, where physical clashes erupted. Citizens, activists, and journalists were injured. Observers from the NGO CRTA documented ruling party thugs operating around polling stations, punctured car tyres, and attacks on monitors. In several cases, police were seen cooperating with the aggressors rather than protecting voters.

According to the latest Bertelsmann Transformation Index, Serbia is now classified as a “moderate autocracy” due to state capture, weakened institutions, and persistent electoral manipulation.

Election results

Despite winning in nine out of ten localities (Vučić claimed victory in all ten on election night), the ruling coalition’s performance was far weaker than in previous cycles.

In Sevojno, the SNS coalition tied with the opposition-student ticket at nine seats each. The single seat won by Milan Stamatović’s Healthy Serbia party will now decide the local government.
Vučić’s list barely scraped through in Aranđelovac (21–20) and Kula (19–18).
The opposition performed strongly in Bor and Bajina Bašta.
The ruling coalition only won by large margins in five smaller, more loyal strongholds.

When compared to the 2022 local elections, the SNS-led coalition lost votes in seven of the ten places – with drops ranging from 7.5% to 22.2%. Overall, across all ten municipalities, their vote share fell by 12.2 percentage points compared to 2022.Turnout was notably high – exceeding 70% in six localities – and almost all additional voters went to opposition and student-led tickets. This confirms a clear trend: the opposition, particularly the student movement that emerged from last year’s protests, is successfully mobilising former non-voters.

What It means for parliamentary elections

These results represent a serious warning for Vučić. They show that his coalition’s support has stagnated or declined even in its traditional strongholds, while the opposition has gained momentum.

However, this does not guarantee defeat in the next parliamentary election. Several factors could still favour Vučić:

Time remains until the next national vote, allowing him to shift the narrative.
The format of opposition unity (or disunity) will be crucial — especially whether smaller lists fall below the electoral threshold.
The choice of presidential candidate (if early presidential elections are called simultaneously) could significantly influence turnout and results.
Post-election “combinatorics”, including possible defections from opposition ranks, could still allow Vučić to form a government.

Analysts note that only genuinely fair elections would almost certainly end Vučić’s rule. In any realistic scenario involving manipulation, the final outcome will depend on opposition coordination, voter mobilisation, and backroom deals.

For now, the 29 March local elections have given Serbia’s opposition genuine reasons for optimism. They have shown that Vučić is vulnerable – but he is far from defeated.

Caption: File photo. Students collect signatures for the ‘Call for Victory’ campaign in Belgrade, Serbia, 28 December 2025. Students across Serbia are organizing nationwide protests to collect signatures demanding early parliamentary elections. The demonstrations are part of a wave of civil unrest that began following the fatal canopy collapse at the Novi Sad railway station in late 2024, with students now calling for accountability and social justice. EPA/ANDREJ CUKIC