Edit“Serbia at breaking point, the return to the status quo is impossible”
Srdjan Cvijic, President of the Belgrade Center for Security Policy spoke to EUalive in an exclusive interview
As mass protests continue to grip Serbia, Srdjan Cvijić, President of the Belgrade Center for Security Policy, one of the largest think tanks in the Balkans dealing with foreign and security policy, said in an interview for EUalive the country has reached a political breaking point.
The government’s repressive tactics have triggered a sustained wave of civil disobedience that, he argues, cannot be silenced or reversed. Cvijić warns that President Aleksandar Vučić is clinging to power through corruption, intimidation and EU complacency – but insists that “the status quo is no longer sustainable.”
The ongoing wave of civic protests and road blockades across Serbia reflects a deeper truth, says Cvijić: the country cannot return to the status quo. He painted a stark picture of a government under pressure, a population unwilling to retreat, and an international community caught between values and interests.
“The action against the government cannot be stopped. This is what we’re still living today,” Cvijić said, referring to the mass unrest that erupted after police violently dispersed peaceful demonstrators on 28 June. The crackdown, widely seen as ordered from the top, sparked countrywide blockades, with citizens placing makeshift barricades at intersections and reclaiming public spaces in protest.
According to Cvijić, the protests are part of a broader reckoning that began on 1 November 2024, after the tragedy in Novi Sad where the concrete canopy of the railway station collapsed and caused the death of 16 people. Since then, Serbia has lived through repeated waves of outrage, and the momentum, he believes, is cumulative. “It is impossible for Serbia to return to the status quo prior to 1 November,” he noted.
While many speculate that the summer months could dampen protest activity, Cvijić is not so sure. “Every single time when we thought that these protests would quiet down, they didn’t,” he said. In his own neighborhood in Belgrade, streets have turned into pedestrian zones. “A lot of people spend their holidays there,” he observed, citing economic hardship and political conviction as reasons many are staying put.
The core demand now is for early elections – a demand the Vucic government has so far ignored. “The students called for extraordinary elections,” Cvijić explained, “but the regime has been silent.” Citing recent local by-elections, he pointed out that despite “the abuse of government resources,” the ruling party saw major losses in its strongholds. „Despite deploying hundreds and hundreds of party dogs, people with sacks of cash to pay voters to vote for the ruling party, paving the roads to small village houses that didn’t have paved roads, giving tractors as presents, the results for the ruling party were really bad“, he explained.
“They lost 30% even under conditions that were far from free and fair,” he added, concluding: “It is hard to imagine how a country can keep on going like this in this state of deep political crisis.”
On the question of whether security forces might turn against Vučić, Cvijić is cautious. While many officers are reportedly taking sick leave to avoid being deployed, there is no sign yet of organized dissent. He also raised concerns about masked individuals in police uniforms who may not be legitimate officers. “Some of them might be ashamed to show their faces,” he speculated.
As for the judiciary, he sees a divided institution.
„The police violence against protesting citizens is not investigated and no one is held accountable for it. Vučić has loyal people in the judiciary and his own judges who will not react against violations of the constitution. He has a silent majority that will not act against the order imposed by the government“, Cvijić says but adds that there is still a “silent majority” of judges unwilling to comply. “They didn’t prosecute the government either,” he clarified, “but they didn’t agree to a politicised order.”
When asked whether EU membership remains a serious objective for the Vučić administration, Cvijic was blunt: “Vučić would be fine for Serbia never to join the European Union, but he wants the EU money.” „This Godot-like process of joining the EU is perfect for him because as long as he can, the money keeps on coming, this is all that he wants from the European Union“, Cvijić says. “Vučić just looks at the EU as a bank.”
Yet the EU’s role, or lack thereof, is under scrutiny. “Releasing initial funds from the EU growth plan to the Serbian regime was a grave error,” Cvijić stated. “It was as if they were financing police repression against the citizens.” He warned that opening Cluster 3 (Competitiveness and Inclusive Growth) in Serbia’s EU accession would be “a catastrophic error” given the regime’s actions and intentions.
Still, he does not call for Brussels to intervene directly. Instead, he urges a shift in tone and posture: “They should stop pretending that they have a normal interlocutor on the other side and embrace the realisation that they are dealing with an aggressive authoritarian regime.”
Regarding Moscow’s role, Cvijić sees Russia as less influential than the EU but ideologically aligned with Vucic’s government. “In terms of values, we have this authoritarian brotherhood that brings together Moscow and Vucic’s Belgrade,” he remarked. Despite contradictions, such as Serbia supplying ammunition to Ukraine, Cvijić views the Kremlin as a consistent supporter of Vučić’s narrative that frames the protests as a Western-sponsored “colored revolution.”
Caption: A protestor sits in front of riot police officers as they disperse a blockade organized by students and anti-government demonstrators in Belgrade, Serbia, 7 July 2025. University students and protesters are demanding snap elections and the release of detained demonstrators. EPA/ANDREJ CUKIC
Updated: July 7, 2025 - 14:58
