EditRussian revenge for Serbian independence
Russia offers Serbia neither friendship nor an alliance. It offers humiliation, subjugation and a constant threat
On 11 June, Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić made a historic trip to Odesa, Ukraine, marking his first visit to the war-torn country during his 12-year tenure as Serbia’s leader. Orhan Dragaš comments on the visit’s fallout.
Dr. Orhan Dragaš is the founder and director of the International Security Institute based in Belgrade.
In the recent series of attacks on Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić, the official Russian media, state intelligence structures, and Vladimir Putin himself are showing their true colors – that of a hypocritical imperial power that does not tolerate any form of sovereignty in countries it considers its satellites.
Vučić was not attacked because he violated international law, nor because he damaged Russian-Serbian relations. He was attacked because he decided – albeit carefully, pragmatically, and in a balanced manner – to conduct Serbian politics in the interests of Serbia and not the Kremlin.
As elementary and legitimate as this may seem for a statesman, it is a mortal sin in the Russian value system. Vučić did not fulfill the role of a loyal and quietly submissive satellite, as Moscow imagined. And so now comes the punishment: media, political, and security.
RIA Novosti, today a propaganda tool of the Kremlin, published a text on 17 June in which it openly insults and mocks the president of Serbia. Its style – full of cynicism, irony, and veiled threats – is reminiscent of the methods of Soviet agitation from the 1950s, when anyone who showed signs of independent thinking was immediately declared a traitor and an enemy. The author of the text makes fun of Vučić’s policy of “sitting on two chairs,” although it was precisely this balancing act that enabled Serbia to survive safely and politically stable in an extremely unfavorable international environment.
What is even more devastating is that the so-called pro-European opposition in Belgrade is not saying a single word, while the Russian media, secret services, and Kremlin officials are brutally attacking Serbia and its president. Their courage is exhausted in criticizing the European leaders who, for heaven’s sake, are talking to the Serbian president. Their targets are António Costa, Ursula von der Leyen, Kaja Kallas, Marta Kos… Their targets are also the American and British ambassadors, to whom they write open letters urging them to “increase the pressure” on the authorities in Belgrade. But to the Russian ambassador? Russia? Putin? Not even a word. No condemnation. No distance. Never. Not even now, when their own country is under a powerful hybrid attack from the Kremlin. On the contrary, they even go one step further: Vučić is publicly criticised for his promise that Serbia will help Ukraine rebuild its destroyed infrastructure. At this point, the line between the Serbian opposition and Russian interests becomes worryingly thin.
On the same topic, the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) published an official statement on 29 May accusing Serbia of “stabbing Russia in the back” by supplying ammunition to Ukraine. The accusations are presented in a manner reminiscent of practical propaganda. The tone of the announcement is particularly important – paternalistic, belittling, full of historical allusions and blackmail. “You have forgotten who helped you against the Turks, the fascists, NATO,” says the SVR in a tone more reminiscent of a message from a mafia boss than a communication between two friendly countries.
And then comes Putin. At a meeting with foreign journalists on 19 June, the Russian president formally recognizes the legality of Kosovo’s secession, citing the ruling of the International Court of Justice – a ruling that Serbia has contested for years and that Russia has used as an argument against recognition. Now Putin uses it when it suits him to justify the secession of parts of Ukraine. It turns out that international law only exists when it confirms his military objectives. If he questions it, then it is a Western invention and an “unjust instrument of colonialism.” This is not right – it is pure political manipulation and hypocrisy.
It is not so easy for Vučić to maintain a pro-European course in a country where the prevailing mood is pro-Russian and where the narrative of “eternal friendship” with Moscow has been cultivated for years. He makes decisions that are in line with Serbia’s strategic interests but are undesirable and even dangerous in the eyes of part of the public. The Russians know this. And they will do everything possible to sabotage this course. They will use force if necessary. They will also resort to violence. Weakening pro-European politics in Serbia is no longer a matter of ideology – it is an operational task for the Russian security community. This plan is already underway.
The Russian policy toward Serbia is no longer friendly or fraternal. It is only interests, conditioning, and increasingly open hostility toward any attempt by Serbia to make decisions in line with its own interests and not those of Moscow. They expect us to be deaf, blind, and mute while the aggression against Ukraine continues, while cities are destroyed and civilians killed, and while conflicts are fueled across Europe. They expect us to nod our heads and keep quiet because someone “was on our side” in the past.
The problem for Russia is that Serbia today is leading 21st-century politics. It knows where its future lies – in the European Union, in integration with the democratic, developed world. Serbia is not anti-Russian, but it is pro-European. And it is precisely this difference that hurts Moscow the most. Because the Kremlin no longer recognises any nuances – either you are one of them or you are the enemy.
Vučić, despite his political weaknesses and contradictions, which the West holds against him, has clearly shown in recent years that he is not prepared to be an instrument of Moscow. His decisions not to impose sanctions against Russia were an expression of the domestic political need to maintain stability but were never aimed at supporting aggression against Ukraine. His refusal to sign declarations calling for the introduction of sanctions against Russia, but also his willingness to help Ukraine in humanitarian terms, in supplying ammunition, and in the reconstruction of cities, speaks of a complex attempt to protect Serbia’s interests in the horrors of this war, for which we are not to blame.
And that is precisely why he becomes a target. Because for Moscow, the implementation of a policy that is not in its interests, even if it is not directed against it, is reason enough for revenge.
That is why today is the time for the European Union and the Western democracies to clearly stand by Serbia. Not just declaratively, but concretely: politically, in terms of security, and financially. Serbia is not looking for a sponsor; it is looking for a partner. If the EU does not offer the country a real and quick prospect of membership and does not help it to preserve its political independence, the gap will not only be filled by frustration – it will be filled by the Kremlin.
Russia lost the right to call Serbia a friendly country the moment it started behaving as if it were its master. Serbia has never shot Russia in the back. But Russia is now shooting Serbia in the head- with an attempt at political discrediting, security pressure, destabilization, and complete disregard for sovereignty.
Today Russia offers Serbia neither friendship nor an alliance. It offers humiliation, subjugation, and a constant threat. And that is why Vučić’s position, no matter how opportunistic it may seem to some in Europe, is actually audacious. Because doing what is right, rather than what is expected, requires more courage than many EU leaders have today.
If the European Union wants to have real global power, it can no longer view the Western Balkans as an area where it can defer decisions. It must defend it. It must invest. It must show solidarity not only in declarations but also in actions. Because otherwise, not only will one policy fail – the entire region’s trust in the European project will fail.
If Europe wants Serbia as a partner, then it is time to show this – and not stand by and watch an authoritarian power punish a free country because it wants to remain its own.
Disclaimer: EUalive doesn’t necessarily share the opinion of the guest authors and is open to publishing other views on the same topic.
Caption: Serbian President Vucic and his Ukrainian host Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Odessa. [Press service of the President of Ukraine]
Updated: June 20, 2025 - 06:17
