Rumen Radev: governing without the right to excuses

Bulgaria’s former President Rumen Radev has entered office with a solid parliamentary majority, giving him the freedom to pass laws and reshape institutions. At the same time, this majority means that every future crisis will be his personal political responsibility.

Radev has formed a government without a coalition partner. One of his first acts after taking the oath was to replace the head of counterintelligence – the only major security service whose director he had not previously appointed. The heads of foreign intelligence and military intelligence were already chosen during his caretaker governments.

The new cabinet has taken office with ambitious promises: to bring prices under control, unblock funds from the EU’s Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRP), and appoint new figures to key positions in the judiciary. With 131 deputies behind him in a 24-seat parliament, the central question is whether Radev’s team can avoid the trap of excessively high public expectations.

Prices, EU funds and the judiciary

For Radev’s voters, his government represents a chance to break the cycle of chronic instability that turned caretaker cabinets into the norm, blocked reforms, and left key regulators operating with expired mandates. To his opponents, however, the new cabinet institutionalises a de facto presidential model of governance that concentrates power beyond the traditional party system.

Choosing a new Supreme Judicial Council (SJC) will require significantly broader parliamentary support. For the 11 members elected by parliament, Radev will need at least 160 votes. The 52nd National Assembly must fill a total of 49 positions in regulators and the judiciary, many of which require qualified majorities.

Few lawmakers from Radev’s “Progressive Bulgaria” party have substantial political experience – a factor that could become a serious weakness at the first sign of internal conflict within the ruling majority.

For the most important and resource-rich ministries, Radev has chosen people from his innermost circle – presidential advisers who also served in his caretaker governments. Most other ministers come from the ranks of deputy ministers and senior state administration officials.

These very advantages now expose him to the risk of being held personally accountable for everything. After years in which caretaker governments could blame political parties for gridlock, and regular governments could collapse due to coalition infighting, the new administration has no such excuses.

Rising prices remain the top concern for Bulgarian citizens according to multiple polls. Yet Bulgaria recorded the highest annual increase in retail sales in the entire European Union in March 2026 (+12.4% year-on-year, according to Eurostat). At the same time, annual inflation accelerated to 6.2% in April – the highest in the euro area.

The government is preparing urgent legislative changes to strengthen the powers of antitrust and consumer protection regulators, increase fines for unfair trading practices, and broaden the definition of unfair competition. It also plans coordinated inspections across the entire supply chain – from producers to retail chains – as part of a more aggressive state intervention in pricing and market oversight.

In the first three months, the National Revenue Agency imposed fines worth around €960,000 for unjustified price hikes, but the impact on inflation and public discontent has so far been limited. The new government is nevertheless fuelling expectations of strong state intervention to curb mark-ups throughout the supply chain.

“We must do everything possible to reverse the trend of rising prices, especially for basic foodstuffs,” Radev stated after the first cabinet meeting. He added that significant work on the state budget lies ahead and that payments under the EU Recovery Plan must be secured.

The anti-corruption test

Critics already question whether Radev’s promised “dismantling of the oligarchic model” will amount to little more than a redistribution of influence around the same centres of power. In public statements, Radev avoids directly naming the “Borisov-Peevski model.” He has admitted that the new head of the State Agency for National Security (DANS) was recommended by the previous director, Delyan Denev, who is linked to the US-sanctioned oligarch Delyan Peevski.

The real test of whether genuine anti-corruption reforms are possible will be the legislative work tied to the EU Recovery Facility.

Bulgaria has already received part of the third payment (€1.47 billion at the end of 2025), but the European Commission has frozen around €367 million from the second and third tranches. The main obstacles are unfulfilled reforms, particularly the lack of an effective anti-corruption mechanism and changes to the accountability and criminal liability of the Prosecutor General.

With limited time left to meet the commitments, the new government will likely have to adopt at least some of the draft laws prepared by the previous caretaker cabinet.

After the closure of the previous anti-corruption commission – widely criticised as a political “bludgeon” – the caretaker government proposed a new model with a different selection process. The draft envisages a five-member commission elected by parliament, the president, the supreme courts, and the bar association, aiming to reduce political dependence. The new body would also have investigative powers, including operational-search capabilities, to tackle high-level corruption.

Without providing details, Prime Minister Radev has promised amendments to the Judicial System Act and a “comprehensive vision for judicial reform that goes beyond simply replacing the Prosecutor General.”

Which direction will Radev look?

So far, the new government is focusing on prices, judicial reform, and EU funds. However, the real test is likely to be in foreign policy.

“The claim that Rumen Radev does not look towards Europe is propaganda spread by his opponents,” said Iliana Yotova, incumbent President and former vice president, who is a likely presidential candidate for this autumn’s elections. She is expected to be backed by Radev and “Progressive Bulgaria.”

Foreign policy will ultimately reveal whether Radev intends to use his power to push for deeper EU integration or for a more independent course between Brussels and Moscow. As president, he built a reputation as a politician with openly pro-Russian sympathies, critical of sanctions against the Kremlin, and an advocate for a more sovereignist role for Bulgaria within the EU.

This is most visible in the energy sector, where Bulgaria remains one of the most Russia-dependent countries in the EU. Following Radev’s election victory, Russia’s state corporation Rosatom has twice signalled a desire to resume dialogue on nuclear projects, including the Belene nuclear power plant, which was definitively halted in 2023. This comes in the same year when parliament must take a final investment decision on units 7 and 8 of the Kozloduy nuclear plant using American Westinghouse AP1000 technology.

At the same time, lawmakers from “Progressive Bulgaria” have spoken about replacing the special administrator of Lukoil’s Bulgarian subsidiaries, appointed by the previous government after US sanctions against Rosneft and Lukoil. The government’s stated reasoning is that the state must show the “Russian owners” it can manage the Burgas refinery “as a good steward.” Such language has heightened suspicions of a pragmatic rapprochement with Moscow in the energy field. Radev frequently uses the argument of “pragmatism” in relations with Russia, especially on energy issues.

Tensions around Lukoil’s assets are further increasing due to threats by Litasco (the Swiss trading arm of Lukoil) to file an arbitration claim against Bulgaria over the terminated concession of the Rosenets port and its removal from operational management of the Burgas refinery.

The combination of energy signals, personnel choices, and sovereignist rhetoric raises serious questions about the direction Bulgaria will take under Radev and how he plans to use the concentrated power now placed in his hands.

Caption: New Bulgarian Prime Minister Rumen Radev (4th from left) stands for the national anthem after he and members of his cabinet were approved by the National Assembly in Sofia, Bulgaria, 8 May 2026. Radev got the mandate as the country’s new prime minister after his ‘Progressive Bulgaria’ coalition won 131 of the 240 seats in the National Assembly during the 19 April 2026 elections, becoming the largest group in parliament. EPA/STRINGER