Romania to spend over €2 billion on new air defence systems made in Israel

In the midst of a worsening regional security climate and growing public discontent over austerity policies, Romania is quietly pushing ahead with one of its largest defence acquisitions to date.

Worth over €2 billion (excluding VAT), the nearly finalised deal will see Israeli defence firm Rafael supply Romania’s army with short- and medium-range air defence systems, Mihnea Lazăr writes for EUalive’s partner PressOne.

According to unofficial sources, Rafael was selected from a shortlist that included bidders from South Korea, France, and Germany. The final price tag is reportedly €2.7 billion (excluding VAT), despite the original estimate of €1.9 billion, and despite concerns about the system’s integration and compatibility with NATO standards.

Patriot isn’t enough: Romania’s layered defence dilemma

Romania already operates three Patriot batteries, which are fully functional. However, as experts repeatedly point out, these systems cannot effectively defend Romanian territory in isolation. Modern air defence requires a multi-layered structure, beginning with long-range surveillance radar networks, gap-filler radars for blind spots, and tiered missile batteries able to engage different kinds of threats – from drones and cruise missiles to hypersonic projectiles.

The war in Ukraine provides a brutal demonstration of how Russia overwhelms defences through combined attacks involving drones, cruise missiles, ballistic missiles, and decoys. These “saturation” tactics exploit weaknesses in single-tier systems. For instance, low-cost, unarmed drones are used to deplete high-value ammunition and reveal radar positions. In this context, using Patriot missiles against small drones is both unsustainable and prohibitively expensive. What’s needed, say analysts, is a team of “bodyguards” for the Patriot – dedicated systems to neutralise specific threats quickly and cheaply.

Currently, Romania’s air defence relies on a patchwork of aging platforms, including eight HAWK batteries purchased second-hand from the Netherlands in 2004, eight Soviet-era KUB batteries, 20 OSA systems, and 40 Strela-mounted APCs. Most of these are outdated and lack the precision, range, or speed needed to counter modern aerial threats.

ReArm Romania: modernising an army amid a 9.3% deficit and geopolitical perils

The deal: urgent needs meet controversy

Approved in 2020, the SHORAD/VSHORAD acquisition plan (Short and Very Short Range Air Defence) initially envisioned 21 integrated systems for an estimated €1.9 billion. The scope was later expanded to 27 systems for a price of €2.7 billion. However, Romania’s Ministry of Defence (MoD) has not officially confirmed the contractor’s identity, nor has it clarified the reasons for the budget changes.

Still, Rafael has been widely reported as the winning bidder. Sources indicate the Israeli firm beat its competitors mainly due to price: the French proposal from MBDA reportedly exceeded the budget by 80%, while Rafael’s offer was only 10% above. The German IRIS-T system and France’s MICA/Mistral were otherwise considered technically superior.

Yet, several questions remain unanswered. According to defence sources, Rafael’s proposal lacks a fully integrated architecture – the Derby and Spyder missile systems have incompatible command structures, and the package includes a Polish radar that, while cost-effective, does not match the performance of its rivals and is not widely tested.

Should the deal go through, it would mark Rafael’s second-largest international contract after its €3.3 billion agreement with Germany for Arrow 3 systems. But the firm is currently under international scrutiny: France recently banned Rafael representatives from the Paris Air Show due to Israel’s military campaign in Gaza, and Spain cancelled a €285 million anti-tank missile contract with the company for the same reason.

In contrast, Romania has made no similar gesture. Should Rafael’s bid be confirmed, MBDA may still secure another contract worth €700 million for MANPAD (portable missile) systems, in the context of a broader European joint procurement for Mistral 3.

The drone dilemma and Romania’s strategic lag

Beyond the specifics of the Rafael deal, the bigger issue is whether Romania is preparing fast enough for the new age of warfare. Ukraine’s drone warfare experience, and the sheer volume of Russian attacks – up to 3,000 drones launched daily along the front, and over 1,000 used in city strikes every few days, highlight how rapidly classic air defence systems are becoming obsolete. Using a €3 million Patriot missile to shoot down a $20,000 Shahed drone is not a viable defence strategy.

Instead, modernisation efforts must include automated anti-drone guns, radar-guided flak systems, and homegrown innovation. Ukraine is already experimenting with drone-on-drone combat and converting old artillery for use against UAVs. These cost-efficient solutions could extend Romania’s defence depth without bankrupting its munitions supply after one or two waves of attacks.

From buyer to builder: Romania attempts to lead its own drone revolution

Caption: Illustrative photo. Visitors check US-made Patriot surface-to-air missile system during the first day of the Black Sea Defense & Aerospace Exhibition 2024 (BSDA`24) in Bucharest, Romania, 22 May 2024. EPA/ROBERT GHEMENT