Report: The West still has a chance to pull Georgia back, but time is running out

A new analysis by the Free Russia Foundation warns that Georgia has undergone a profound authoritarian transformation over the past decade, steadily aligning its political, economic, and security institutions with Kremlin interests through subtle state capture rather than overt military intervention.

Yet the report, released on 5 February and titled “How Georgia Turned Towards the Kremlin- and Cracked Down on Pro-Western Dissent“, insists that the country is not irretrievably lost to Europe, thanks to the enduring pro-European orientation and active resistance of Georgian society.

The Free Russia Foundation is a U.S.-based nonprofit organization founded in 2014 that empowers global efforts for democracy in Russia by supporting civil society, pro-democracy activists, human rights advocates, and anti-war communities through advocacy, research, community assistance, and policy analysis.

The think tank’s assessment frames Georgia’s democratic crisis as far more than routine institutional erosion. Instead, it describes a deliberate geopolitical shift that represents a strategic victory for Moscow if allowed to consolidate. Positioned on a vital corridor linking Europe, the Black Sea, Russia, and the South Caucasus, a Georgia that remains formally committed to EU integration while politically subordinated to the Kremlin undermines sanctions enforcement, regional stability, and the broader Euro-Atlantic security architecture.

Despite intensified repression – including mass politically motivated arrests, violent policing of demonstrations, fabricated charges, restrictions on peaceful assembly, and systematic attacks on independent media and civil society – Georgian citizens have not abandoned their European aspirations. Sustained protests, widespread civic mobilization, and the resilience of activists, journalists, and opposition figures serve as powerful evidence that public support for EU and Euro-Atlantic integration remains robust. The report argues that the true locus of democratic resistance now lies outside the captured state apparatus, in society itself.

What has faltered, according to the authors, is the West’s external incentive system – enlargement promises, conditionality, and diplomatic pressure – designed to safeguard and reinforce that pro-Western alignment. Past Western restraint, often rationalized by concerns that tougher measures might drive Tbilisi closer to Moscow, is deemed counterproductive and ultimately ineffective in halting the drift.

The analysis urges the transatlantic community to recognize Georgia as a pressing strategic priority and to act decisively. It calls for a recalibration of EU sanctions policy, including targeted measures against senior figures in the ruling Georgian Dream party as well as operational officials responsible for repression, such as travel bans and asset freezes across the bloc. A previous attempt to introduce such sanctions reportedly stalled due to a Hungarian veto in January, leaving the initiative frozen and projecting European weakness. The report suggests that direct high-level engagement – potentially led by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen – could revive and advance these efforts, signaling that defending democratic standards in the EU’s neighborhood is a core security interest.

Additional recommendations focus on countering disinformation: pro-government Georgian media outlets, accused of running systematic anti-EU campaigns, could be addressed under the EU’s existing framework for combating Russian hybrid threats. The EU’s 17th sanctions package, adopted in May 2025 and targeting propaganda networks beyond Russia’s borders, provides a useful precedent. Framing measures against Georgian actors as an extension of Russia policy, rather than a Georgia-specific initiative, could facilitate consensus among reluctant member states.

The report also advocates greater financial leverage. EU member states, alongside the United Kingdom and the United States, should coordinate to impose conditionality through international lenders such as the IMF, World Bank, European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, and European Investment Bank- ensuring that loans and aid do not inadvertently stabilise authoritarian consolidation.

Special emphasis is placed on the role of the United Kingdom, which is encouraged to impose direct sanctions on Bidzina Ivanishvili, widely regarded as Georgia’s de facto political leader. Tools could include scrutiny of financial flows, asset investigations, and Unexplained Wealth Orders; the current omission of Ivanishvili from sanctions regimes is seen as undermining their overall deterrent effect.

Ultimately, the Free Russia Foundation portrays Georgia’s trajectory not as a sudden rupture but as the culmination of a sustained, intentional strategy of state capture. Through judicial politicization, security-service control, media suppression, civil-society dismantling, and cultivated dependencies in energy and infrastructure, the Georgian Dream government has insulated itself from accountability while opening channels receptive to Kremlin influence—all without tanks or annexation.

The window for reversal remains open, the report stresses, but it is narrowing. Georgian society’s continued defiance offers hope, yet meaningful change will require the transatlantic partners to move beyond passive observation and treat Georgia with the strategic urgency it demands. The central question now facing Europe and its allies is no longer whether Georgia matters, but whether they are prepared to act as though it does.

Caption: Georgian opposition parties supporters clash with riot police during a rally after local elections in Tbilisi, Georgia, 04 October 2025. EPA/DAVID MDZINARISHVILI