Record share of Poles oppose Ukraine’s EU accession as public mood hardens

A record level of opposition to Ukraine joining the EU has emerged in Poland, raising fresh questions over how domestic politics in one of Kyiv’s key allies could shape the bloc’s enlargement process.

The CBOS survey found that 40% of Poles oppose Ukraine’s EU membership, the highest level recorded since CBOS began tracking public opinion on the issue. While half of respondents still support accession in principle, enthusiasm for rapid enlargement has continued to decline.

The largest group, 41%, said Ukraine should join the EU, but only in the longer term rather than through an accelerated process. Just 9% supported Ukraine joining “as soon as possible”, the lowest figure in the history of the survey.

Opposition has risen sharply since autumn 2023, increasing by 23 percentage points. According to CBOS, scepticism is particularly strong among right-wing voters and young adults aged between 18 and 24.

The findings point to a significant shift in Polish public opinion. Although support for Ukraine remains substantial, it is increasingly accompanied by caution and, among some groups, outright opposition to further integration.

The poll also suggests that Poles have become more pessimistic about the outcome of Russia’s war against Ukraine. A majority of respondents (55%) believe Kyiv will ultimately have to make territorial concessions to secure peace, a view that has remained dominant since December 2024, according to CBOS.

At the same time, some respondents still foresee a more favourable outcome for Ukraine. Fourteen per cent believe Russian forces could eventually withdraw from occupied territories, with some expecting Ukraine to regain the borders it held before Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022.

Opinion is also divided over Poland’s support for Ukraine. Thirty-nine per cent consider the current level of military, financial and humanitarian assistance appropriate, while 27% believe Poland is providing too much support and 22% say assistance remains insufficient.

The survey was conducted in July among a representative sample of 938 adult Polish citizens.

Historical disputes cloud accession debate

The deteriorating public mood reflects a broader hardening of political rhetoric between Warsaw and Kyiv.

In late June, Polish Deputy Prime Minister and Defence Minister Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz warned that Poland would not support Ukraine’s EU accession unless Kyiv ended the official glorification of figures associated with the Organisation of Ukrainian Nationalists (OUN) and the Ukrainian Insurgent Army (UPA), including Stepan Bandera.

Warsaw has repeatedly argued that celebrating Bandera as a national hero remains incompatible with European reconciliation and good neighbourly relations.

“You cannot build the European Union on the pedestal of people who destroyed European cooperation. With Bandera, Ukraine will not enter the European Union,” Kosiniak-Kamysz said.

Ukraine as a defining issue in Polish politics

Ukraine is emerging as one of the key dividing lines in Poland’s domestic politics ahead of the 2027 parliamentary election.

The collapse of Law and Justice (PiS) and the emergence of former Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki’s more pragmatic conservative formation, Development Plus, are reshaping the political landscape.

While serving as prime minister under PiS, Morawiecki often had to balance the party’s more nationalist factions. As the leader of an independent technocratic conservative movement Development Plus, he is expected to face less pressure to compete with the far right through anti-Ukrainian rhetoric, potentially making post-election cooperation with Donald Tusk more feasible.

At the same time, as moderate conservatives consolidate elsewhere, PiS is increasingly competing with Confederation and Grzegorz Braun’s KKP for nationalist voters. This dynamic is likely to push Jarosław Kaczyński towards sharper rhetoric on Ukraine in an effort to prevent further defections on the right.

The result could be a more vocal and cohesive anti-Ukrainian opposition in the next Sejm, with Ukraine’s integration into the EU single market, particularly in agriculture, remaining one of the defining issues for Poland’s nationalist parties.

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Sources: Polskie radio 24, Wprost, BGNES

Caption: People carry a banner reading ‘Krakow Social Committee Volhynia 43’ as they take part in the Black March of Remembrance, organized by this committee, in Krakow, Poland, 11 July 2026. Poland marks the 83rd anniversary of Volhynia Massacres, a series of mass killings of ethnic Polish civilians carried out by the Organization of Ukrainian Nationalists (OUN) and its military wing, the Ukrainian Insurgent Army (UPA) between 1943 and 1945 during World War II, which reached their peak on 11 July 1943, a day known as ‘Bloody Sunday’. EPA/LUKASZ GAGULSKI