EditReArm Romania: modernising an army amid a 9.3% deficit and geopolitical perils
The country requires at least five years to become a regional security provider
In April 2025, Romania stands at a crossroads: its military modernization program has made significant strides, yet a 9.3% budget deficit – the highest in Europe- and a precarious geopolitical landscape threaten its strategic goals.
The ReArm/Readiness 2030 initiative aims to transform Romania into a regional power at the Black Sea, but rising nationalist extremism, the potential U.S. recognition of Russia’s annexation of Crimea, and delays in critical reforms create a risky environment. This article analyses Romania’s military progress, vulnerabilities, and the challenges of balancing ambitious defense goals with fiscal and political constraints.
Military modernisation: progress and gaps
Romania’s military has advanced significantly in recent years, particularly in air defence and long-range capabilities. The country now operates 33 F-16 jets, with plans to increase this to 49 by the end of 2025, all to be upgraded to the M6.6 standard. An additional 18 F-16s from the Netherlands will support training for Romanian, Ukrainian, and NATO pilots, bringing the total to 66 modern fighters by 2026.
Romania also possesses three Patriot systems, with four more expected by 2027, alongside 56 PAC-2 GEM-T and 168 PAC-3 MSE missiles, with 200 more PAC-2s ordered in 2023. Three HIMARS systems with 54 launchers and a mix of 216 M31, M30A1, and ATACMS missiles provide a 300-kilometer strike capability, though limited munitions highlight a critical shortfall, exacerbated by delays until 2027 due to the Ukraine war.
Despite these advances, Romania’s naval forces remain a weak link. Years of political gridlock delayed contracts for four domestically built corvettes, leaving Romania’s Black Sea coast vulnerable, especially near the Neptun Deep gas platforms close to Ukraine’s maritime border. In response, Romania hastily purchased a Turkish HISAR corvette for €200 million, with three more planned at the Damen Galați shipyard by 2030. The delivery of 12 NSM anti-ship missile batteries, totaling 48 missiles, is also delayed until 2028. These gaps leave Romania exposed, particularly if U.S. policy shifts recognize Russia’s control over Crimea, effectively creating a maritime border with Russia.
Strategic shifts and the ReArm 2030 plan
The National Defence Industry Strategy 2024–2030, part of the broader Army 2040 program, outlines an ambitious vision for a modern, multi-domain force equipped with advanced technology. It emphasizes four pillars: advanced technologies (cyber, AI), a competitive domestic defence industry, NATO and EU partnerships, and investment in innovation and skilled personnel. Romania relies heavily on U.S. and European suppliers but has diversified to include South Korea, with contracts for 54 K9 Thunder howitzers and 36 K10 ammunition vehicles, and Israel’s Elbit for Watchkeeper X drones.
Key acquisitions include 18 Bayraktar TB2 drones (€290 million, delivery by 2025), 12 MQ-35A V-BAT reconnaissance drones, and two Sandown-class minehunters (€150 million). Romania has also ordered 227 Piranha 5 8×8 vehicles (€900 million), with 150 more planned, and 1,059 Cobra 2 light armoured vehicles (€857 million), many to be assembled locally. Additionally, 54 Abrams M1A2 SEPv3 tanks (€950 million) are set for delivery starting in 2026, with plans to reach 300 main battle tanks. A €5.72 billion deal for 32 F-35 jets, however, won’t see deliveries until 2031–2034, raising concerns amid uncertainties about U.S. reliability in the region.
Reviving Romania’s defence industry
Romania’s defence industry, led by ROMARM SA, remains underdeveloped, with many of its 15 factories operating at a loss due to outdated technology. Investigations reveal Romania’s reliance on Serbian gunpowder, sourced indirectly from Russia, highlighting supply chain vulnerabilities. Retooling efforts are underway, with partnerships like Uzina Mecanică Cugir’s deal with Heckler & Koch for firearms, Romaero’s maintenance hub with Hungary’s Aeroplex, and Carfil Brașov’s drone production with Periscope Aviation. Rheinmetall’s €516 million gunpowder factory in Brașov and Hanwha’s planned facility for K9 howitzers signal progress, but these initiatives won’t yield results until at least 2027. Legislative reforms aim to attract foreign investment by absorbing factory debts, yet decades of neglect mean Romania’s domestic production lags behind its needs.
Human and logistical challenges
Romania’s active military force of 64,000 must grow to 100,000, with a reserve of 55,000 – mostly over 45 and undertrained – needing significant expansion. Public opposition to mandatory conscription (58% against) complicates recruitment, with only 3,000 volunteer reservists added annually. Training is inadequate, with active soldiers firing minimal live rounds and reservists receiving cursory exercises. Replacing outdated AKM rifles will take years, and logistical infrastructure, including roads and railways, remains vulnerable to delays in troop and equipment movement during a potential Russian invasion.
Political and fiscal constraints
Romania’s 9.3% budget deficit limits defence spending, despite a nominal 2% of GDP allocation. Political infighting has left €4 billion unspent in recent years, and no clear plan exists to raise defence spending to 2.5–3.5% of GDP. Rising nationalist extremism and fears of U.S. policy shifts under Trump, including reduced troop presence, add urgency to Romania’s need for self-reliance. While pro-European parties support Ukraine, they oppose sending troops, and even the ultranationalist AUR backs ReArm but prioritizes less competitive domestic equipment.
A race against time
Romania’s ReArm program offers a path to a modernized military by 2030, capable of deterring Russian aggression and securing its Black Sea position. However, the timeline is perilously long given regional threats, and vulnerabilities in naval defence, munitions, personnel, and logistics persist. Political inertia and fiscal constraints further hinder progress. Romania requires at least five years to become a regional security provider and a decade to achieve independent defence capacity. In a volatile geopolitical landscape, Romania’s slow pace risks undermining its investments, demanding urgent action to align ambition with reality.
A longer version of this article in Romanian can be found on the website of PressOne, partner of EUalive in Romania.
Caption: Romanian navy corporal Florin Costiniuc (2-L) from the Romanian Navy minesweeper M 270 ‘Sublieutenant Ion Ghiculescu’, helped by his colleague, prepares to open fire with the onboard cannon during a NATO naval drill ‘Sea Shield 24’ on the Black Sea, off the coast of Constanta, Romania, 16 April 2024. [EPA-EFE/ROBERT GHEMENT]
Updated: June 9, 2025 - 06:07
