Radev storms to power as Bulgaria erupts over rule-of-law collapse

Bulgaria has a new strongman in former president Rumen Radev, who has been given by voters a mandate to form a one-party government after nearly five years of political instability and a rule-of-law collapse.

Bulgaria’s Radev wins the snap parliamentary elections by landslide

Radev was quickly labelled a “pro-Russian” political figure by his political opponents and international media. However, he enjoys broad and diverse public support, largely driven by expectations of tackling oligarchic influence and prosecutorial overreach rather than by geopolitical positioning.

The former president can expect to secure close to 130 seats in parliament for his party, Progressive Bulgaria, which is the strongest electoral mandate granted to a single political force since the 1997 elections. At that time, the pro-Western Union of Democratic Forces won decisively following an economic collapse triggered by the policies of the former communist government.

Parallels with the 1997 crisis are not to be underestimated. Radev’s victory comes against the backdrop of what is widely seen as the most severe rule-of-law crisis in Bulgaria’s recent history.

Broken judiciary

The country’s interim Chief Prosecutor, Borislav Sarafov, has held the position without clear legitimacy for nearly a year, amid accusations that he is protecting the interests of oligarch Delyan Peevski, who has been sanctioned for corruption by the US and the UK.

The mandates of all judicial oversight bodies expired years ago, and Bulgaria’s system of checks and balances is effectively non-functional. A large majority of citizens believe that the courts and prosecution service serve the interests of a small group of oligarchs who dominate the country’s political and economic life.

“There are many important issues to address, but we must begin with the election of a new Supreme Judicial Council and then appoint a new Chief Prosecutor,” Radev said on Sunday after casting his vote in Sofia.

This is precisely where his party, Progressive Bulgaria, will need to seek parliamentary partnerships. On judicial reform, the only viable ally appears to be the liberal, pro-EU coalition We Continue the Change – Democratic Bulgaria (PP-DB), for whom judicial reform and anti-corruption efforts are central priorities.

Bulgaria’s judicial system has been paralysed for years, as the prolonged political crisis has prevented the replacement of members of the Supreme Judicial Council, many of whom have continued to serve despite mandates that expired four years ago. Electing new members from the parliamentary quota requires a constitutional majority of 160 MPs.

If such a majority is achieved, a newly constituted Supreme Judicial Council would be able to appoint a legitimate Chief Prosecutor, widely seen as the only viable path to unlocking anti-corruption efforts in one of the EU’s poorest member states.

To reach this goal, Radev will need to negotiate with PP-DB to secure the 160 votes required to deliver on his key campaign promise. He has also pledged constitutional reform. This opens the door to a potential coalition, even though on most other governance issues the new Bulgarian leader needs no formal partners to rule.

For many Bulgarians, including supporters of both Radev and PP-DB, high-level corruption is embodied by the political model associated with Delyan Peevski and the former prime minister Boyko Borissov.

Radev echoed this assessment: “Today Bulgaria has a unique chance to break once and for all with the Borissov-Peevski model. I call on people to vote so we can take back our country,” he said on election day.

Need for balance

At this point geopolitics become a complicating factor, because Radev and PP-DB hold significantly different positions on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the provision of military aid to Kyiv.

Radev’s resistance, during his presidency, to supplying Bulgarian weapons to the Ukrainian army earned him the “pro-Russian” label and made him a preferred prime ministerial figure for nearly 30% of voters with pro-Russian sympathies.

However, the other half of his electorate consists of pro-European voters who see him as a strong enough figure to confront entrenched corruption and organised interests. This political mix will force Radev to strike a delicate balance over the next four years, as he also seeks to establish himself as a leading figure in Bulgaria’s party system.

Radev has demonstrated political flexibility before and is well aware that public support in Bulgaria can be volatile.

Three decades ago, the Union of Democratic Forces won a landslide victory, stabilised the economy and set the country on a path towards EU and NATO membership. However, controversial privatisation deals and corruption scandals brought down what once appeared to be an unassailable anti-communist force, paving the way for former king Simeon Saxe-Coburg-Gotha, who himself lost power after just four years as prime minister.

Rumen Radev needs to avoid a similar political fate.

Caption: Rumen Radev (C), leader of the Progressive Bulgaria (PB) coalition, speaks to the media following the first exit polls after the parliamentary elections in Sofia, Bulgaria, 19 April 2026. Initial exit polls show the PB coalition leading with approximately 39 percent of the vote, positioning it to become the largest group in the 240-seat National Assembly. EPA/BORISLAV TROSHEV